2007 AEA Conference Papers

These are AEA Conference Papers; please see also the full 2007 ASSA Preliminary Program Schedule.

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Friday, January 5, 2007



Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Labor Flows, Vacancies and Wages
Presiding: John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland)

The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring
Davis, Steve (University of Chicago)
Faberman, R. Jason (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
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Wage and Employment Dynamics with Mismatch
Shimer, Robert (University of Chicago)

Why Don't Temporary Layoffs Spike during Recessions Anymore?
Groshen, Erica (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Potter, Simon (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Economics of Natural Resources and the Environment
Presiding: TBA ()

Sensitivity of the United States Economy to Weather Variability
Lazo, Jeffrey (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Larsen, Peter (University of Alaska, Anchorage)
Waldman, Donald (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Harrod, Megan (Stratus Consulting, Inc.)
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Some Resource Economics of Invasive Species
Pitafi, Basharat (Southern Illinois University)
Roumasset, James (University of Hawaii)
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Reducing Environmental Impact: Appropriate Country Strategies Based on Levels of Development
Lowder, Sarah (United Nations)

Pricing and Inventory Control with Two-Sided Uncertainty: Water Distribution in Southern California
Weber, Thomas A. (Stanford University)
Tomkins, Claire (Stanford University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Transparency
Presiding: Marc-Andreas Muendler (University of California, San Diego and CESifo)

The Action Value of Information and the Natural Transparency Limit
Muendler, Marc-Andreas (University of California, San Diego and CESifo)
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Persuasion as a Contest
Skaperdas, Stergios (University of California, Irvine)
Vaidya, Samarth (Deakin University)
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Mass Media: Constrained Information and Heterogenous Public
Kwiek, Maksymilian (University of Southampton)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Model Validation and Model Comparison
Presiding: Michael Keane (Yale University)

Validation of Structural Models
Wolpin, Kenneth (University of Pennsylvania)

Using Data on Expectations to Validate a Structural Model of Investment in Health
Fang, Hanming (Yale University)
Keane, Michael (Yale University)
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
Salm, Martin (Duke University)
Silberman, Dan (University of Michigan)

Bayesian Model Comparison and Validation
Geweke, John (University of Iowa)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy
Presiding: Samuel Reynard (Swiss National Bank)

Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the United States and the Euro Area
Nelson, Edward (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Andres, Javier (Universidad de Valencia)
Lopez-Salido, David (Bank of Spain)
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Money and the Great Disinflation
Reynard, Samuel (Swiss National Bank)
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Money and Monetary Policy: The ECB Experience 1999-2006
Pill, Huw (European Central Bank)
Fischer, Bjoern (European Central Bank)
Lenza, Michele (European Central Bank)
Reichlin, Lucrezia (European Central Bank)
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Money Still Makes the World Go Round: The Zonal View
Filardo, Andrew (Bank for International Settlements)
Bordo, Michael (Rutgers University and NBER)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Market and Pre-Market for Graduate Students in Economics
Presiding: Alan Krueger (Princeton University)

Is There an Insider Advantage in Getting Tenure?
Oyer, Paul (Stanford University)
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The Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity
Grove, Wayne A. (LeMoyne College)
Wu, Stephen (Hamilton College)
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What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes
Athey, Susan (Harvard University)
Katz, Lawrence (Harvard University)
Krueger, Alan (Princeton University)
Levitt, Steven (University of Chicago)
Poterba, James (MIT)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Macroeconomic Implications of Price Stickiness
Presiding: John Leahy (New York University)

Aggregate Dynamics of Inflation and Real Activity with Firm-Level Productivity Shocks
Dotsey, Michael (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
King, Robert G. (Boston University)
Wolman, Alexander L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations
Midrigan, Virgiliu (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Sticky Information and Sticky Prices
Klenow, Peter (Stanford University)
Willis, Jonathan (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Recent Macroeconomic Stabilization
Presiding: Jeffrey Campbell (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization
Campbell, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Hercowitz, Zvi (Tel Aviv University)
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The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Primiceri, Giorgio (Northwestern University)
Justiniano, Alejandro (Federal Reserve Board)
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Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility
Leduc, Sylvain (Federal Reserve Board)
Sill, Keith (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Heterogeneity in the Labor Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Presiding: Francois GOURIO (Boston University)

The Marginal Worker and the Aggregate Elasticity of Labor Supply.
Gourio, Francois (Boston University)
Noual, Pierre-Alexandre (University of Chicago)
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Measuring Unemployment Composition over the Business Cycle
Pavan, Ronni (University of Rochester)
Barbarino, Alessandro (University of Chicago and Duke University)

Cyclicality in Unemployment and Wages
Chang, Yongsung (Seoul National University)
Bils, Mark (University of Rochester)
Kim, Sun-Bin (Korea University)

Endogenous Labor Market Participation and the Business Cycle
Haefke, Christian (University of Pompeu Fabra)
Reiter, Michael (University of Pompeu Fabra)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Long-Run Growth
Presiding: David Weil (Brown University)

Nonlinearities and Robustness in Growth Regressions
Minier, Jenny (University of Kentucky)
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Competition and Growth: The Key Role of R&D Duplication behind the Inverted U Relationship
Swann, Antonia J. (York University)
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The Coevolution of Economic and Political Development
Huang, Fali (Singapore Management University)
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Public Education Expenditures, Taxation and Growth: Linking Data to Theory
Simpson, Nicole B. (Colgate University)
Blankenau, William (Kansas State University)
Tomljanovich, Marc (Colgate University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Multinational Firms and Development
Presiding: Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Northwestern University)

On Multinational Firms and the Accumulation of Skills
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander (Northwestern University)
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Managerial Skills Acquisition and the Process of Development
Beaudry, Paul (University of British Columbia)
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
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Organizing Offshoring: Middle Managers and Communication Costs
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban (Princeton University)
Antras, Pol (Harvard University)
Garicano, Luis (Chicago GSB)
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Size, Geography, and Multinational Production
Ramondo, Natalia (University of Chicago)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Capital Accumulation and the Cost of Capital
Presiding: Simon Gilchrist (Boston University)

Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development
Clementi, Gian Luca (New York University)
Castro, Rui (University of Montreal)
Macdonald, Glenn (Washington University, St. Louis)
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Interest Rates and Investment Redux
Natalucci, Fabio (Federal Reserve Board)
Gilchrist, Simon (Boston University)
Zakrajsek, Egon (Federal Reserve Board)

Firm Market Value and Investment: The Role of Firm Market Power and Different Types of Adjustment Costs
Bayraktar, Nihal (Pennsylvania State University, Harrisburg and World Bank)
Sakellaris, Plutarchos (Athens University of Economics and Business and IMOP)
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Panel Cointegration Estimates of the Effect of Interest Rates, Capital Goods Prices, and Taxes on the Capital Stock
Voia, Marcel-Cristian (Carleton University)
Schaller, Huntley (Carleton University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Constitutional Approaches to Explaining Trade Policy
Presiding: Gerald Willmann (University of Kiel)

Optimal Agenda-Setter Timing
Polborn, Mattias (University of Illinois)
Willmann, Gerald (University of Kiel)
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Oranges and Steel - A Swing-State Theory of Trade Protection in the Electoral College
Muuls, Mirabelle (London School of Economics)
Petropoulou, Dimitra (London School of Economics)
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Electoral Rules and Trade Protection
Roelfsema, Hein (University of Utrecht)
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Why Legislators are Protectionists: The Role of Majoritarian Voting in Setting Tariffs
Willmann, Gerald (University of Kiel)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Markets, Information, and Strategic Behavior
Presiding: Bruce Mizrach (Rutgers University)

EBay's Proxy System: A License to Shill
Engelberg, Joseph (Northwestern University)
Williams, Jared (Northwestern University)
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Is Talk Cheap Online? Strategic Interaction in A Stock Trading Chat Room
Mizrach, Bruce (Rutgers University)
Lu, Jie (Rutgers University)
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Sniping and Squatting in Auction Markets
Hossain, Tanjim (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Ely, Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
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The Social Life of Financial Bubbles
Levine, Sheen S. (Singapore Management University)
Zajac, Edward J. (Northwestern University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Organizational Form
Presiding: Julie Wulf (University of Pennsylvania)

Firms, Nonprofits, and Cooperatives: A Theory of Organizational Choice
Herbst, Patrick (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
Prufer, Jens (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
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Renegotiation of Defense Procurement Contracts
Oudot, Jean-Michel (Centre ATOM, University Paris I Pantheon, Sorbonne)
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Tradeoffs in Staying Close: Corporate Decision-Making and Geographic Dispersion
Wulf, Julie (University of Pennsylvania)
Landier, Augustin (New York University)
Nair, Vinay (University of Pennsylvania)
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Firm Boundaries in the New Economy: Theory and Evidence
Subramanian, Krishnamurthy (Emory University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Income Redistribution: Causes and Consequences
Presiding: Felix Oberholzer-Gee (Harvard University)

Justice and Redistribution
Fong, Christina (Carnegie Mellon University)
Oberholzer-Gee, Felix (Harvard University)

The anatomy of the demand for redistribution in Europe: An investigation of the European Social Survey
Senik, Claudia (Universite Paris-IV Sorbonne)
Van der Straeten, Karine (CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique Paris)

Redistribution and Social Identity in the Lab
Klor, Esteban F. (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Shayo, Moses (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Natural Field Experiments in Development Economics
Presiding: Rohini Pande (Yale University)

Experimental Evidence on Long-run Impacts of Child Health in Kenya
Miguel, Edward (University of California, Berkeley)
Baird, Sarah (University of California, Berkeley)
Kremer, Michael (Harvard University)

Derationing: Using Randomized Credit Supply Decisions to Measure Microfinance Impacts
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth University)

Monitoring Corruption: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia
Olken, Benjamin (Harvard University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Capital Market Frictions
Presiding: Lasse Heje Pedersen (New York University)

Market Maker Inventories and Stock Prices
Seasholes, Mark (University of California, Berkeley)
Hendershott, Terrence (University of California, Berkeley)

Slow Moving Capital
Pedersen, Lasse Heje (New York University)
Mitchell, Mark (CNH Partners)
Pulvino, Pulvino (CNH Partners)
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Over-the-Counter Search Frictions: A Case Study of the Federal Funds Market
Ashcraft, Adam (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Interrelationship between Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills
Presiding: Gary S. Becker (University of Chicago)

The Evolution of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills over the Life Cycle of the Child
Cunha, Flavio (University of Chicago)
Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)

The Role of Noncognitive Skills in Explaining Cognitive Test Scores
Borghans, Lex (Maastricht University)
ter Weel, Bas (Maastricht University)
Meijers, Huub (Maastricht University)
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Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making
Frederick, Shane (MIT)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Behavioral Game Theory
Presiding: Joseph Tao-yi Wang (California Institute of Technology)

Pinocchio's Pupil: Using Eyetracking and Pupil Dilation to Understand Truth-telling and Deception in Games
Wang, Joseph Tao-yi (California Institute of Technology)
Spezio, Michael (California Institute of Technology)
Camerer, Colin F. (California Institute of Technology)
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Studying Cognition by Monitoring Information Search in Guessing Games
Costa-Gomes, Miguel A. (University of York)
Crawford, Vincent P. (University of California, San Diego)
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Neural Activity during Bargaining with Private Information
Bhatt, Meghana (California Institute of Technology)
Camerer, Colin F. (California Institute of Technology)
Lohrenz, Terry (Baylor Medical School)
Montague, Read (Baylor Medical School)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Intrinsic Motivation, Organization and Institutions
Presiding: Paul Grout (University of Bristol)

Organization Design with Motivated Agents
Besley, Timothy (London School of Economics)
Ghatak, Maitreesh (London School of Economics)

Norms and Institutional Change
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
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Why Is Donated Labor in Organizations So Delicate?
Grout, Paul (University of Bristol)
Schnedler, Wendelin (University of Heidelberg)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Asymmetric Information and Moral Hazard in Insurance Markets
Presiding: Hanming Fang (Yale University)

Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and Health Expenditures: A Semiparametric Analysis
Bajari, Patrick (University of Minnesota)
Hong, Han (Duke University)
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
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Testing for Adverse Selection with "Unused Observables"
Finkelstein, Amy (MIT)
Poterba, James (MIT)
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Asymmetric Information and Moral Hazard in Insurance Markets
Einav, Liran (Stanford University)
Finkelstein, Amy (MIT)
Schrimpf, Paul (Stanford University)
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Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market
Fang, Hanming (Yale University)
Keane, Michael (Yale University)
Silverman, Dan (University of Michigan)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Capital Flows and Productivity
Presiding: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston and NBER)

Why Are Capital Flows between Regions So Different from Capital Flows between Countries? Evidence from Europe
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (University of Houston and NBER)
Ekinci, Mehmet (University of Rochester)
Sorensen, Bent (University of Houston)
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Does Globalization Contribute to Productivity Growth?
Kose, Ayhan (IMF)
Prasad, Eswar (IMF)
Terrones, Marco (IMF)

Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (University of California at Berkeley and NBER)
Jeanne, Olivier (IMF)
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Unexploited Gains from International Diversification
Didier, Tatiana (MIT)
Rigobon, Roberto (MIT)
Schmukler, Sergio (World Bank)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Household Finance: Cognition and Decision Making
Presiding: Christopher Snyder (Dartmouth College)

Fuzzy Math and Red Ink: Payment/Interest Bias and Household Finance
Stango, Victor (Tuck School of Business (Dartmouth))
Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth College)

Who is "Behavioral"? Cognitive Ability and Anomalous Preferences
Shapiro, Jesse (University of Chicago)
Benjamin, Daniel (Harvard University)
Brown, Sebastian A. (Harvard University)
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Financial Illiteracy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Well-Being
Lusardi, Annamaria (Dartmouth College)
Mitchell, Olivia (The Wharton School (Penn))
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Structural Change and the Decline in Manufacturing
Presiding: Francisco Buera (Northwestern University)

Capital Deepening and Non-Balanced Economic Growth
Acemoglu, Daron (MIT)
Guerrieri, Veronica (MIT)
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The Rise of the Service Economy
Buera, Francisco (Northwestern University)
Kaboski, Joseph (Ohio State University)
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Productivity-Based Theory of Manufacturing Employment Declines: A Global Perspective
Matsuyama, Kiminori (Northwestern University)
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Trends in Hours and Economic Growth
Ngai, Rachel (London School of Economics)
Pissarides, Christopher (London School of Economics)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Productivity-Enhancing Reallocation: Comparative International Evidence
Presiding: John Earle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Central European University)

Cross Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocative Efficiency
Bartelsman, Eric (Free University of Amsterdam)
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
Scarpetta, Stefano (World Bank)
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Assessing the Impact of the Investment Climate on Productivity Using Firm-Level Data: Methodology and the Cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua
Escribano, Alvaro (Universidad Carlos III Madrid)
Guasch, J. Luis (World Bank)
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The Impact of State Aid for Restructuring on the Allocation of Resources
Schweiger, Helena (University of Maryland)
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Employment Reallocation and Productivity Growth: A Comparative International Study
Brown, J. David (Heriot-Watt University)
Earle, John (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Central European University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Wars, Finance, and War Finance
Presiding: Shaun Vahey (Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank)

The Net Worth of the U.S. National Government, 1784-1802
Grubb, Farley (University of Delaware)
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The Great Financial Crisis of 1914: What Can We Learn from Aldrich-Vreeland Emergency Currency?
Silber, William (New York University)
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The McKenna Rule and U.K. World War I Finance
Vahey, Shaun (Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank)
Nason, Jim (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
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How Occupied France Financed Its Own Exploitation in World War II
White, Eugene (Rutgers University)
Occhino, Filippo (Rutgers University)
Oosterlinck, Kim (Solvay Business School)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: New Approaches to International Trade
Presiding: Andrew Atkeson (University of California, Los Angeles)

New Configurations of Global Production and Trade: Implications of China's Emergence
Eaton, Jonathan (New York University)
Dekle, Robert (University of Southern California)
Kortum, Samuel (University of Minnesota)

Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms
Bilbie, Florin (Oxford University)
Ghironi, Fabio (Boston College)
Melitz, Marc (Harvard University)

Pricing to Market with Heterogeneous Firms
Atkeson, Andrew (University of California, Los Angeles)
Burstein, Ariel (University of California, Los Angeles)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: K-12 Economic and Financial Literacy Education
Presiding: Elizabeth Webbink (National Council on Economic Education)

Field Testing Novel Digital Learning Modules for Economics in the Third Millennium
Hodgin, Robert F. (University of Houston, Clear Lake)
Cobb, Steven L. (University of North Texas)
Davila, Alberto (University of Texas, Pan American)

Testing the Economic Literacy of K-12 Teachers: A Baseline Analysis for Mississippi
Grimes, Paul W. (Mississippi State University)
Millea, Meghan (Mississippi State University)
Thomas, M. Kathleen (Mississippi State University)
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Does Professional Learning for High School Economics Teachers Improve Student Achievement?
Swinton, John R. (Georgia College and State University)
Scafidi, Jr., Benjamin P. (Georgia State University)
De Berry, Thomas W. (North Georgia College and State University)
Woodard, Howard C. (Georgia College and State University)
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Assessing the Effectiveness of Financial Fitness for Life in Eastern Kentucky
Harter, Cynthia L. (Eastern Kentucky University)
Harter, John F. R. (Eastern Kentucky University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: 75th Anniversary of Hicks' Introduction of the Elasticity of Substitution between Labor and Capital
Presiding: Robert Chirinko (Emory University)

The Substitution Elasticity, Growth Theory, and the Low-Pass Filter Panel Model
Chirinko, Robert (Emory University)
Mallick, Debdulal (Emory University)
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International Differences in Aggregate Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress
Klump, Rainer (Frankfurt University)
McAdam, Peter (European Central Bank)
Willman, Alpo (European Central Bank)

The Elasticity of Substitution: Evidence from a U.K. Firm-Level Data Set
Price, Simon (Bank of England)
Barnes, Sebastian (OECD)
Sebastia-Barriel, Maria (Bank of England)
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The Role of the Elasticity of Substitution in Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Test of the de la Grandville Hypothesis
Mallick, Debdulal (Emory University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Parties and Politicians
Presiding: Antonio Merlo (University of Pennsylvania)

On the Benefits of Party Competition
Bernhardt, Dan (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
Campuzano, Larissa (Mathematica Policy Research)
Squintani, Francesco (University College London)
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Political Dynasties
Dal Bo, Ernesto (University of California, Berkeley)
Dal Bo, Pedro (Brown University)
Snyder, Jason (Northwestern University)
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Political Careers or Career Politicians?
Mattozzi, Andrea (California Institute of Technology)
Merlo, Antonio (University of Pennsylvania)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Issues in Family/Household Decision Making
Presiding: Gail Hoyt (University of Kentucky)

The Effect of Child Gender on Parent's Labor Supply: An Examination of Natives, Immigrants, and Their Children
Pabilonia, Sabrina (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ward-Batts, Jennifer (Claremont McKenna College)
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Marriage Delay and Private Saving
Schmidt, Lucie (Williams College)
Sevak, Purvi (Hunter College)

Adoption Subsidies and Adoption Outcomes: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Buckles, Kasey (University of Notre Dame)
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Earnings and Spousal Mobility: Power Couples and Trailing Spouses
McKinnish, Terra (University of Colorado, Boulder)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Field Experiments on Charitable Giving
Presiding: David Reiley (University of Arizona)

Does Price Matter in Charitable Giving?
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
List, John (University of Chicago)

Charitable Giving to a University: Do Subsidies Increase Donations?
Eckel, Catherine (University of Texas at Dallas)
Grossman, Philip (St. Cloud State University)

Motivations for Giving: Field and Survey Data
Croson, Rachel (University of Pennsylvania)
Shang, Jen (Indiana University)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Contracts and Fairness
Presiding: Ulrike Malmendier (Stanford University)

Adding a Stick to the Carrot? The Interaction of Bonuses and Fines
Fehr, Ernst (University of Zurich)
Schmidt, Klaus (University of Munich)
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Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New Thoughts
Hart, Oliver (Harvard University)
Moore, John Hardman (University of Edinburgh)
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Can Contract Theory Explain Social Preferences?
MacLeod, W. Bentley (Columbia University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The relationship between Education and Well-being
Presiding: Joshua Angrist (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Understanding Health Differences by Education
Lleras-Muney, Adriana (Princeton University)
Cutler, David (Harvard University)
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How Does College Change Women's Lives?
Dynarski, Susan (Harvard University)

Wealth and Happiness from Compulsory Schooling: Recent Evidence from Raising the School Leaving age to 18 in the United States
Oreopoulos, Phillip (University of Toronto)

The Effect of Maternal Education on Child Health
Lillard, Dean (Cornell University)
Ueyama, Maki (Cornell University)
Simon, Kosali (Cornell University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: What Should Development Economists Know?
Presiding: Martin Feldstein (Harvard University and NBER)

Can We Identify the Basic Tools Needed for Policy Analysis in Developing Countries?
Harberger, Arnold (University of California, Los Angeles)

Avoiding the See-Saws of Development Policy
Johnson, Simon (International Monetary Fund)

Understanding Context and Interlinkages in Development Policy Formulation and Implementation".
Krueger, Anne (International Monetary Fund)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Real Estate Markets and Performance
Presiding: Karl E. Case (Wellesley College)

Up in ARMS: The Interplay of Mortgage and Housing Markets
Nothaft, Frank (Freddie Mac)
Cutts, Amy Crews (Freddie Mac)

How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Sticky Prices
Case, Karl (Wellesley College)
Quigley, John (University of California, Berkeley)
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Commercial Real Estate Return Cycles: Do Capital Flows Matter?
Fisher, Jeffrey D. (Indiana University)
Ling, David C. (University of Florida)
Naranjo, Andy (University of Florida)
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Forward Markets in Housing Prices: What Have We Learned?
Sanders, Anthony (Ohio State University)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Economics of Medical Care "Report Cards"
Presiding: Donald E. Yett (University of Southern California)

How Much Performance Can P4P Buy?
Helmchen, Lorens (University of Illinois, Chicago)
Losasso, Anthony T. (University of Illinois, Chicago)

Do Report Cards Tell Consumers Anything They Don't Already Know?
Dafny, Leemore (Northwestern University)
Dranove, David (Northwestern University)

The Effect of a Tiered Hospital Benefit and Safety Incentive on Hospital Admissions: Evidence from Stated and Revealed Preference Data
Scanlon, Dennis (Pennsylvania State University)
Christianson, Jon (University of Minnesota)
Lindrooth, Richard (Medical University of South Carolina)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 12:30 PM

Session: Joint Luncheon
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Title to come
Bernanke, Ben (Federal Reserve Board)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Residential Mortgage Economics
Presiding: Yongheng Deng (University of Southern California)

Long-Range Dependence in Mortgage Termination
Li, Jingyang (Countrywide Finance)
Thurston, Paul (Countrywide Finance)

Interest Rates and Consumer Choice in the Residential Mortgage Market
Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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Irrational Borrowers and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages
Deng, Yongheng (University of Southern California)
Quigley, John M. (University of California, Berkeley)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Personnel Economics Studies Using Personnel Data
Presiding: Edward Lazear (Stanford University)

Doing the Right Thing? Does Fair Share Capitalism Improve Firm Performance: Evidence for the U.K.
Bryson, Alex (Harvard University and NBER)
Freeman, Richard (Harvard University and NBER)
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Incentives and Favoritism in the Workplace: Evidence from Personnel Data
Bandiera, Oriana (London School of Economics)
Barankay, Iwan (University of Essex)
Rasul, Imran (University College London)
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The Microeconomic Implications of Input Market Regulations: Cross-Country Evidence from Within the Firm
Lafontaine, Francine (University of Michigan)
Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (University of Michigan)
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Talent Sorting and Skill Complementarity Among Software Engineers
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
Oyer, Paul (Stanford University)
Shaw, Kathryn (Stanford University)
Andersson, Fredrik (Cornell University)
Freedman, Matthew (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Behavioral Welfare Economics
Presiding: B. Douglas Bernheim (Stanford University)

Title to be announced
Bernheim, B. Douglas (Stanford University)

Title to be announced
Gul, Faruk (Princeton University)
Pesendorfer, Wolfgang (Princeton University)

Title to be announced
Rabin, Matthew (University of California, Berkeley)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Developments in Dynamic Mechanism Design
Presiding: Stephen Morris (Princeton University)

Ascending Auctions: Robustness and Uniqueness
Morris, Stephen (Princeton University)
Bergemann, Dirk (Yale University)

Incentives and Communication Costs
Segal, Ilya (Stanford University)

On Quitting Rights in Mechanism Design
Jehiel, Philippe (University College London)
Compte, Olivier (Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Evaluation and Time Allocations in Teaching Economics
Presiding: Barry R. Chiswick (University of Illinois, Chicago)

Evaluating Methods for Evaluating Instruction: The Case of Higher Education
Weinberg, Bruce (Ohio State University)
Fleisher, Belton (Ohio State University)
Hashimoto, Masanori (Ohio State University)
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Time Allocations and Reward Structures for Academic Economists from 1995-2005: Evidence from Three National Surveys
Harter, Cynthia (Eastern Kentucky University)
Watts, Michael (Purdue University)
Becker, William (Indiana University)
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Time Allocations to Undergraduate and Graduate Teaching in Economics and Other Disciplines
Allgood, Sam (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
Walstad, William (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
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The Long-Term Effects of Economics Coursework on College Graduates' Behaviors and Outcomes in the Labor Market
Allgood, Sam (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
Bosshardt, William (Florida Atlantic University)
van der Klaauw, Wilbert (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)
Watts, Michael (Purdue University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Consumption Inequality: Evidence and Interpretation
Presiding: Richard Blundell (University College London and IFS)

The evolution of consumption and wage inequality: evidence and implications for consumption smoothing.
Attanasio, Orazio (University College London and IFS)
Battistin, Erich (Universita di Padova and IFS)
Padula, Mario (Universita di Salerno)

Evaluating Asset Pricing Models with Limited Commitment using Household Consumption Data
Krueger, Dirk (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Perri, Fabrizio (New York University)
Lustig, Hanno (UCLA)
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The transmission of income inequality into consumption inequality
Blundell, Richard (University College London)
Preston, Ian (University College London)
Pistaferri, Luigi (Stanford University)
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Labor Supply and Consumption with Imperfect Insurance: An Analytical Framework
Heathcote, Jonathan (Georgetown University)
Storesletten, Kjetil (University of Oslo)
Violante, Giovanni Luca (New York University)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Habit Persistence and the Macroeconomy
Presiding: Martin Uribe (Duke University)

Habit Persistence: Evidence from Complementary Data Sources
Dynan, Karen E. (Federal Reserve Board)
Ravina, Enrichetta (New York University)

Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price
Ravn, Morten (European University Institute)
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie (Duke University)
Uribe, Martin (Duke University)
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Explaining Asset Prices with Habit Persistence and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model
Uhlig, Harald (Humboldt Universitaet)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Beliefs in the Utility Function
Presiding: Andrew Caplin (New York University)

The Planning Fallacy and Deadlines
Brunnermeier, Markus (Princeton University)
Parker, Jonathan (Princeton University)
Papakonstantinou, Filippos (Princeton University)

Paying for Confidence: An Experimental Study of Preferences over Beliefs
Eliaz, Kfir (New York University)
Schotter, Andrew (New York University)

Dynamic Psychological Games
Battigalli, Pierpaolo (Bocconi University)
Dufwenberg, Martin (University of Arizona)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Empirical Industrial Organization
Presiding: Patrick Bajari (University of Minnesota)

Identification and Estimation of Bidders' Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions
Vuong, Quang (Pennsylvania State University)
Perrigne, Isabelle (Pennsylvania State University)
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An Estimable Dynamic Model of Entry, Exit and Growth in Oligopoly Retail Markets
Aguirregabiria, Victor (University of Toronto)
Mira, Pedro (CEMFI)
Roman, Hernan (Boston University)
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Bounding Revenue Comparisons across Multi-Unit Auction Formats under ε-Best Response
McAdams, David (MIT)
Paarsch, Harry J. (University of Iowa)
Chapman, James (University of Iowa)
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Differentiated Product Demand Estimation with Rank Data
Bajari, Patrick (University of Minnesota)
Fox, Jeremy (University of Chicago)
Ryan, Stephen (MIT)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Health of the Young and the Old in the Past and the Present
Presiding: Robert Fogel (University of Chicago)

Race and Health in the Past: Infection and Arteriosclerosis
Costa, Dora (MIT)
Helmchen, Lorens (University of Illinois -- Chicago)
Wilson, Sven (Brigham Young University)
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Survival and the Changing Role of Chronic Diseases in the 20th Century
Sloan, Frank (Duke University)
Salm, Martin (University of Mannheim)
Belsky, Dan (Duke University)
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Postpartum Hospital Stay and the Outcomes of Mothers and their Newborns
Evans, William (University of Maryland)
Wei, Heng (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Determinants of Professional Success
Presiding: Rachel Croson (University of Pennsylvania)

Can Social Norms Explain Gender Differences in Educational Aspirations?
Kleinjans, Kristin J. (University of Aarhus and RAND)
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The Earnings of Female Faculty: A Story of Field and Gender?
Garvey, Deborah (Santa Clara University)
Lopez, Mark Hugo (University of Maryland)
Mora, Marie (University of Texas, Pan American)

Is Economics Becoming Gender Neutral?
Sacerdote, Bruce (Dartmouth College)
Durell, Alan (Harvard University)
Williams, Heidi (Harvard University)
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Women Helping Women, Men Helping Men? Same-Gender Mentoring, Initial Job Placements, and Early Career Publishing Success for Economics Ph.D.s
Hilmer, Michael (San Diego State University)
Hilmer, Christina (San Diego State University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Information Frictions and Aggregate Fluctuations
Presiding: Chris Edmond (NYU)

Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition
Hellwig, Christian (University of California, Los Angeles)
Veldkamp, Laura (New York University)

Income dispersion, market efficiency and business cycles
Edmond, Chris (NYU Stern)
Veldkamp, Laura (NYU Stern)
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Liquidity and Spending Dynamics
Guerrieri, Veronica (MIT)
Lorenzoni, Guido (MIT)
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Learning by Matching
Amador, Manuel (Stanford GSB)
Weill, Pierre-Olivier (NYU Stern)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Emerging Markets Finance in the Global Economy
Presiding: Simon Johnson (MIT)

Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets
Broner, Fernando (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Martin, Alberto (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Ventura, Jaume (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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International Financial Integration and Entrepreneurial Firms Dynamics
Alfaro, Laura (Harvard Business School)
Charlton, Andrew (London School of Economics)
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The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization
Faria, Andre (International Monetary Fund)
Mauro, Paolo (International Monetary Fund)
Minnoni, Martin (Banco Hipotecario (Buenos Aires, Argentina))
Zaklan, Aleksandar (Georgetown University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Political Economy of Institutional Change
Presiding: Sanjay Jain (University of Virginia)

Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Political Institutions and War
Jones, Benjamin (Northwestern University)
Olken, Benjamin (Harvard University)
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The Long Run Impact of Bombing in Vietnam
Miguel, Edward (University of California at Berkeley)
Roland, Gerard (University of California at Berkeley)

Bridging the Divide: On Leadership and Institutional Change
Majumdar, Sumon (Queens University)
Mukand, Sharun (Tufts University)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Networked Interactions
Presiding: Luis Rayo (University of Chicago)

On the Network Structure of Communication in Organizations
Calvo-Armengol, Antoni (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
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Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games
Jackson, Matthew O. (Stanford University)
Yariv, Leeat (California Institute of Technology)
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Financial Networks
Gale, Douglas (New York University)
Kariv, Shachar (University of California, Berkeley)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Economics of National Security
Presiding: Martin Feldstein (Harvard Univeristy)

Economic Incentives and Foreign Insurgents in Iraq
Krueger, Alan (Princeton University)
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Military Deployments and Children's Academic Achievement: Evidence from Department of Defense Education Activity Schools
Engel, Rozlyn (U.S. Military Academy (West Point))
Gallagher, Luke B. ()
Lyle, David S. ()
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The economic and ideological determinants of military recruiting
DellaVigna, Stefano (Univ of California at Berkeley)
Kaplan, Ethan (Univ of California at Berkeley)

Are Regional Trade Agreements Signed to Deter Military Conflicts?
Martin, Phiilippe (University of PAris)
Mayer, Thierry (University of Paris)
Thoenig, Mathias (University of Geneva)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Social Insurance Programs: Good for Workers? Good for the Labor Market?
Presiding: Raj Chetty (University of California, Berkeley)

Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach
Black, Dan (Syracuse University)
Galdo, Jose (McMaster University)
Smith, Jeff (University of Michigan)
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The Effects of Extended Benefits on Unemployment Duration and Early Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne)

Unemployment Benefits, Income Effects, and Search Outcomes: Evidence from a Discontinuity in the Austrian Severance Pay System
Card, David (University of California, Berkeley)
Chetty, Raj (University of California, Berkeley)
Weber, Andrea (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Distinguishing Income from Substitution Effects in Disability Insurance
Autor, David (MIT)
Duggan, Mark (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Economics of "Self-Discovery": Export Specialization, Productivity and Growth
Presiding: Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)

What You Export Matters
Hwang, Jason (Harvard University)
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)
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The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: The Impact of the Structure of the Product Space
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Klinger, Bailey (Harvard University)
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Good Politics, Good Policies, Low Growth: The Puzzle of South Africa
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)


Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Financial Econometrics
Presiding: Donald Lien (University of Texas, San Antonio)

A Semiparametric Framework for Modeling and Forecasting Jumps and Volatility in Speculative Prices
Anderson, Torben (Northwestern University)
Bollerslev, Tim (Duke University)
Huang, Xing (Duke University)

Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises
Duan, Jin-Chuan (University of Toronto)
Fulop, Andras (ESSEC Paris)
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Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends
Bai, Jushan (University of Michigan)
Kao, Chihwa (Syracuse University)
Ng, Serena (University of Michigan)

Estimating Time-Varying Hedge Ratios with A Range-Based Multivariate Volatility Model
Chou, Ray (Insititute of Economics, Academia Sinica)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: ODE Invited Graduate Student Papers
Presiding: Robert S. Rycroft (University of Mary Washington)

Labor Supply Responses to Government Provided Health Insurance: Evidence from Kidney Transplant Patients
Page, Timothy F. (University of New Hampshire)
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Is Financial Development Really Beneficial for Latin American Countries?
Raynal, Luisa Blanco (University of Oklahoma)
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Juanita's Money Order: Income Effects on Human Capital Investment in Mexico
Suarez Serrato, Juan Carlos (University of California, Berkeley)
Avallaneda, Zenide (Federal Reserve Board)
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Labor Supply, Self-Insurance and Knightian Uncertainty
Liu, Hening (Northern Illinois University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Spatial Modeling, Discrete Choices and the Costs and Benefits of Transportation Network Improvements
Presiding: Keith Hofseth (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

Spatial Modeling in Transportation II: Railroad Pricing, Alternative Markets, and Capacity Constraints
Anderson, Simon (University of Virginia)
Wilson, Wesley W. (University of Oregon)
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Estimation on Stated-Preference Experiments Constructed from Revealed-Preference Choices
Train, Kenneth (University of California - Berkeley)
Wilson, Wesley (University of Oregon)
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International Trade, Transportation Networks, and Port Choice
Blonigen, Bruce (University of Oregon)
Wilson, Wesley W. (University of Oregon)
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Congestion at Locks on Inland Waterways: An Experimental Testbed of a Policy of Tradable Priority Permits for Lock Access
Cook, Joseph (National Economic Research Associates)
Plott, Charles (California Institute of Technology)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 4:45 PM

Session: Richard T. Ely Lecture
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: The Valuation of Macroeconomic Risk
Hansen, Lars (University of Chicago)



Saturday, January 6, 2007



Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Governance of Central Banks: Advances and Challenges
Presiding: Renee Adams (Stockholm School of Economics)

Governing the Governors:A Clinical Study of Central Banks
Frisell, Lars (Sveriges Riksbank)
Roszbach, Kasper (Sveriges Riksbank)
Spagnolo, Giancarlo (Stockholm School of Economics)
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Does Capital Hurt the Value of the Bank?
Mehran, Hamid (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University in St. Louis)
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The Governance of Federal Reserve Bank Boards
Adams, Renee (Stockholm School of Economics)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Medical Innovation and the Social Value of Health Progress
Presiding: Robert H. Topel (University of Chicago)

Integrated Insurance Design in the Presence of Multiple Medical Technologies
Philipson, Tomas (University of Chicago)
Goldman, Dana (RAND Corporation)
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Social Value and the Speed of Innovation
Murphy, Kevin M. (University of Chicago)
Topel, Robert H. (University of Chicago)

The Impact of New Drugs on U.S. Longevity and Medical Expenditure, 1990-2003
Lichtenberg, Frank R. (Columbia University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Financial Security in Retirement: How Will Baby Boomers Fare?
Presiding: Olivia Mitchell (University of Pennsylvania)

Financial Security in Retirement in Face of Rising Health Care Costs
Hurd, Michael (Rand)
Rohwedder, Susann (Rand)

Transitioning to Individual Accounts: Consequences for Baby Boomers Savings
Boersch-Supan, Axel (MEA: Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics)

Baby Boomer Retirement Security: The Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth
Lusardi, Annamaria (Dartmouth College)
Mitchell, Olivia (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
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Your Money or Your Life: Managing Health, Managing Money
Grafova, Irina B. (University of Medicine & Dentistry of New Jersey)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Behavioral Contracting
Presiding: Anjan Thakor (Washington University, St. Louis)

Disagreement and Autonomy: Incentive Contracting with Psychological Ownership and Objective Ownership
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University, St. Louis)
Song, Fenghua (Washington University in St. Louis)
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On Measuring Compassion in Social Preferences: Do Gender, Price of Giving, or Inequality Matter?
Kamas, Linda (Santa Clara University)
Freston, Anne (Haverford College)
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Vengeance
Mocan, Naci (University of Colorado, Denver)

Optimal Contracts When Agents Envy Each Other
Goel, Anand (DePaul University)
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University in St. Louis)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Peer Effects and Social Interactions
Presiding: Michael Keane (Yale University)

Do Students Want to Succeed? Peer group choice, social influence, and undergraduate performance
Foster, Jennifer (University of South Australia)
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Endogenous Peer Effects in School Participation
Bobonis, Gustavo (University of Toronto)
Finan, Frederico (University of California, Berkeley)
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Evaluating Economic and Social Interventions that Increase College Enrollment: Academic Standards, Social Status, and the Quest for Identity
Fletcher, Jason (Yale University)
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Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Social Interactions: with an Application to a Signaling Game Experiment
Liu, Xiaodong (Ohio State University)
Kagel, John (Ohio State University)
Lee, Lung-Fei (Ohio State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Understanding the Gender Gap in Wages
Presiding: Francine Blau (Cornell University)

The Role of Labor market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Georgia State University)
Pitts, M. Melinda (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
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A Cohort Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap
Moore, Quinn (Mathematica Policy Research)
Shierholz, Heidi (University of Toronto)

The Impact of managed Care on the Gender Earnings Gap Among Physicians
Sasser, Alicia (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Reaching Equilibrium in the Market for Obstetricians and Gynecologists
Reyes, Jessica Wolpaw (Amherst College)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates
Presiding: Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank)

Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy
Kozicki, Sharon (Bank of Canada)
Tinsley, Peter A (George Washington University)
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Bond Supply, Expectations, and the Yield Curve
Piazzesi, Monika (University of Chicago)
Schneider, Martin (New York University)

Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium
Rudebusch, Glenn D. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Sack, Brian P. (Macroeconomic Advisers)
Swanson, Eric T. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
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Imperfect Policy Credibility, Term Premia and Expectations Puzzles
Hordahl, Peter (European Central Bank)
Tristani, Oreste (European Central Bank)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Decision Theory: New Methods, New Insights
Presiding: Paul Glimcher (New York University)

Measuring Discounted Value Using Brain Imaging
Glimcher, Paul W. (New York University)
Louie, Kenway (MIT)
Kable, Joseph (New York University)

Dopamine and Choice
Caplin, Andrew (New York University)
Dean, Mark (New York University)
Dewitt, Eric (New York University)
Rutledge, Robb (New York University)

Recovering Preferences from Choices in the Laboratory
Gale, Douglas (New York University)
Fisman, Raymond (Columbia University)
Kariv, Shachar (University of California, Berkeley)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Financial Frictions and Aggregate Fluctuations
Presiding: Lawrence Christiano (Northwestern University)

Financial Factors in Business Cycles
Christiano, Lawrence (Northwestern University)
Motto, Roberto (European Central Bank)
Rostagno, Massimo (European Central Bank)

Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: The Role of Foreign-Denominated Debt
Gilchrist, Simon (Boston University)
Sim, Jae (Boston University)

Firm-Level Evidence on the Cylical Behavior of Credit Market Frictions
Levin, Andrew (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Natalucci, Fabio (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Zakrajsek, Egon (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Bank finance vs bond finance: implications for monetary policy
de Fiore, Fiorella (European Central Bank)
Uhlig, Harald (Humboldt University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Durable Goods
Presiding: Christopher House (University of Michigan)

Durable Goods and Conformity
House, Christopher (University of Michigan)
Ozdenoren, Emre (University of Michigan)
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A Model of Exchange Where Beauty Is in the Eye of the Beholder
Smith, Lones (University of Michigan)
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Non-Linear Pricing of Storable Goods
Hendel, Igal (Northwestern University)
Lizzeri, Alessandro (New York University)

Obsolescence of Durable Goods and Optimal Consumption
Stacchetti, Ennio (New York University)
Stolyarov, Dmitriy (University of Michigan)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: R&D and Business Cycles
Presiding: Gadi Barlevy (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Read All About It? What Happens after a Technology Shock
Alexopoulos, Michelle (University of Toronto)
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International Medium Term Business Cycles
Comin, Diego (New York University)

Intrinsic Business Cycles with Pro-cyclical R&D
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
Lloyd-Ellis, Huw (Queen's University)
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On the Cyclicality of Research and Development
Barlevy, Gadi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Interactive Workshops on Teaching Economics
Presiding: Michael K. Salemi (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Using Cooperative Learning to Improve Student Understanding of Exam Evaluation
Caviglia-Harris, Jill L. (Salisbury University)
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A Classroom Experiment on Exchange Rate Determination
Rebelein, Robert (Vassar College)
Simpson, Nicole B. (Colgate University)
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New Insights from In-Class Experiments: Using Excel to Post and Analyze Results on the Spot
Creahan, Thomas A. (Morehead State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Global current account imbalances and their adjustment mechanism
Presiding: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (European Central Bank)

World Bankers
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (UC Berkeley)
Rey, Helene (Princeton)
Lopez, Carlos (UC Berkeley)
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Rethinking the Effects of Financial Liberalization in Emerging Markets
Broner, Fernando (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Ventura, Jaume (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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A Global Perspective on External Positions
Lane, Philip (Trinity College Dublin)
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria (IMF)

Productivity Shocks, Budget Deficits and the Current Account
Bussiere, Matthieu (ECB)
Fratzscher, Marcel (ECB)
Mueller, Gernot (Frankfurt University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Intrafamily Allocation
Presiding: Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania)

Co-Residence with Aging Parents and Parental Allocations Among Adult Sibs
Behrman, Jere (University of Pennsylvania)
Hoddinott, John (International Food Policy Research Institute)
Maluccio, John (Middlebury College)
Quisumbing, Agnes (International Food Policy Research Institute)
Stein, Aryeh (Emory University)

Spending Time and Money Within the Household
Browning, Martin (University of Copenhagen)
Gortz, Mette (University of Copenhagen)

Parental Investments in Education and Later Financial Transfers: A Preliminary Look
Haider, Steven (Michigan State University)
McGarry, Kathleen (University of California, Los Angeles and NBER)
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Efficiency in Family Bargaining: Living Arrangements and Caregiving Decisions of Adult Children and Disabled Elderly Parents
Pezzin, Liliana (Medical College of Wisconsin)
Pollak, Robert (Washington University and NBER)
Schone, Barbara (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Violence and Wars
Presiding: Fali Huang (Singapore Management University)

Vulnerabilities to Terrorism
Brunet, Alexia (Northwestern University)
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Manipulating Discontent: A Simple Model of Suicide Terrorism
Mitra, Aniruddha (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
Jellissen, Susan (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)

Crime versus Globalization
de Fontenay, Catherine (University of Melbourne)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Experiments on Social Interaction
Presiding: Dorothea Herreiner (Loyola Marymount University)

Social Preference Aggregation in Groups
Brady, Michael (Ohio State University)
Roe, Brian (Ohio State University)
Wu, Steven (Ohio State University)

Do People Appreciate the Value of Listening to a Variety of Different Opinions?
Healy, Andrew (Loyola Marymount University)
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An Experimental Study of Deliberative Voting
Yariv, Leeat (California Institute of Technology)
Goeree, Jacob (California Institute of Technology)

The Relevance of Envy Freeness as Fairness Criterion
Herreiner, Dorothea (Loyola Marymount University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Improving Child Outcomes: What Works and What Doesn't
Presiding: Janet Currie (Columbia University)

The Intended and Unintended Consequences of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act: Evidence from Wisconsin
Chakrabarti, Rajashri (Harvard University)

Head Start Participation and Childhood Obesity
Frisvold, David (University of Michigan)
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The Effects of Spanish-Language Background on Schooling and Achievement
Locay, Luis (University of Miami)
Regan, Tracy (University of Miami)
Diamond, Arthur M. (University of Nebraska, Omaha)

Is Child Labor Harmful? The Impact of Working Earlier on Life on Adult Earnings
Emerson, Patrick (Oregon State University)
Souza, Andre Portela (Sao Paulo School of Economics)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Education and Democracy
Presiding: Simon Johnson (MIT)

Why Does Democracy Need Education?
Glaeser, Edward (Harvard University)
Ponzetto, Giacomo (Harvard University)
Schleifer, Andrei (Harvard University)

Democracy and Foreign Education
Spilimbergo, Antonio (International Monetary Fund)
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Education and Institutions
Acemoglu, Daron (MIT)
Johnson, Simon (MIT)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Social Interactions and Economic Behavior
Presiding: Jeffrey Brown (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBER)

Neighbors Matter: Community Effects and Stock Market Participation
Brown, Jeffrey (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBE)
Ivkovich, Zoran (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
Smith, Paul (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Weisbenner, Scott (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBE)
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Social Influences and the Private Provision of Public Goods: Evidence from Charitable Contributions in the Workplace
Carman, Katie (Tilburg University)
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Measuring Social Interactions: Results from the Dutch Post Code Lottery
Kapteyn, Arie (RAND and Tilburg University)
Kooreman, Peter (University of Groningen)
Kuhn, Peter (University of California at Santa Barbara)
Soetevent, Adriaan (University of Amsterdam)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: China's Public Finance and Institutional Changes
Presiding: Yingyi Qian (University of California, Berkeley)

Modeling Institutional Change: China since 1978
Bromley, Daniel W. (University of Wisconsin)
Yao, Yang (Peking University)
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How Economic Performance Plays a Role in China's Local Administrative Change
Li, Lixing (University of Maryland)

Elections, Fiscal Reform and Public Goods Provision in Rural China
Luo, Renfu (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Huang, Jikun (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zhang, Linxiu (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Rozelle, Scott (University of California, Davis and Giannini Foundation)

Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Competition, and Economic Performance: Evidence from County-Level Data in China
Yao, Yi (Cornell University)
Zhang, Xiaobo (International Food Policy Research Institute)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: North Korean Economy at a Crossroads
Presiding: James Lister (Korea Economic Institute of America)

North Korean Economic Scenarios
Bracken, Paul (Yale University)

North Korean Monetary and Exchange rate Policies: Is There a Way Out of Hyperinflation?
Seliger, Bernhard (Hanns Seidel Foundation Korea)
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North Korea: From Failing Towards Reforming State: A Governance Perspective
Ahrens, Joachim (European Business School)
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Economic Sanctions against North Korea
Chang, Semoon (University of South Alabama)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Penalties and Sanctions for Securities Fraud
Presiding: Chester Spatt (Securities and Exchange Commission and Carnegie Mellon University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Grundfest, Joseph (Stanford University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Romano, Roberta (Yale University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Snyder, Christopher (Dartmouth College)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Economics of Human Development
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Title to come
Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Understanding Performance Heterogeneity between Firms: The Role of Organizational Capabilities
Presiding: Luis Garicano (University of Chicago)

Competing in Capabilities
Sutton, John (London School of Economics)

Organizational Capabilities: Persistent Performance Differences among Seemingly Similar Enterprises
Gibbons, Robert (MIT)
Henderson, Rebecca (MIT)

Organizational Capabilities: A Cognitive Perspective
Garicano, Luis (University of Chicago)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Field Experiments in Pecuniary and Non-Pecuniary Donations
Presiding: James Andreoni (University of California, San Diego)

The Economics of Open Air Markets: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments
List, John (University of Chicago)

Social Information and Charitable Contributions
Croson, Rachel (University of Pennsylvania)
Shang, Jen (Indiana University)

Self-Identity, Reputation, and Incentives: Evidence from Field and Lab Experiments
Ariely, Dan (MIT)
Bracha, Anat (MIT)
Meier, Stephan (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Active Decisions and Pro-social Behavior: A Field Experiment in Blood Donation
Stutzer, Alois (University of Basel)
Goette, Lorenz (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
Zehnder, Michael (University of Zurich)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Contracts, Incentives and Cooperation Between and Within Firms
Presiding: Nisvan Erkal (University of Melbourne)

Discretionary Latitude and the Nature of Relational Contracting
Wu, Steven (The Ohio State University)
Roe, Brian (The Ohio State University)
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On Moral Hazard and Joint R&D
Fabrizi, Simona (Keele University)
Lippert, Steffen (Massey University)
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Optimal Sharing Strategies in Dynamic Games of Research and Development
Erkal, Nisvan (University of Melbourne)
Minehart, Deborah (University of Maryland)
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Evolving Technologies and Standardization
Cabral, Luis (New York University)
Salant, David (ERS Group)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Estimating Models of Consumer Decisions with Applications to Health
Presiding: Donna Gilleskie (University of North Carolina)

The Effect of Bans and Taxes on Passive Smoking
Adda, Jerome (University College London)
Cornaglia, Francesca (University College London)
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Health, Economic Resources, and the Work Decisions of Older Men
Bound, John (University of Michigan)
Stinebrickner, Todd (University of Western Ontario)
Waldmann, Timothy (Urban Institute)

Regulations in Nursing Home Markets: Estimation of a Competitive Model
Ching, Andrew (University of Toronto)
Hayashi, Fumiko (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Effects of Medicare on Individual Health Incentives and Health Outcomes
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: U.S. Trade Deficits, the Dollar, and International Monetary Stability Roundtable
Presiding: Dominick Salvatore (Fordham University)

Why Such a Strong Dollar?
Feldstein, Martin (Harvard University)

Exchange Rates and Trade Balances under the Dollar Standard: The Transfer Problem Reconsidered
McKinnon, Ronald (Stanford University)
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The U.S. Deficit and the International Monetary System
Mundell, Robert (Columbia University)

The Dollar and the Current Account Deficit: How Much Should We Worry?
Mussa, Michael (Institute for International Economics)
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The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates Revisited
Rogoff, Kenneth (Harvard University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Housing and the Macro-Economy
Presiding: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (New York University)

The Political Economy of Housing Supply: Homeowners, Workers, and Voters
Ortalo-Magne, Francois (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Prat, Andrea (London School of Economics)
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Urban Growth and Housing Supply
Glaeser, Edward (Harvard University)
Gyourko, Joseph (University of Pennsylvania Wharton)
Saks, Raven (Harvard University)

The Puzzling Lack of Correlation in the Value of the Regional Capital and Housing Stock
Lustig, Hanno (UCLA)
Moskowitz, Tobias (University of Chicago)
Ohanian, Lee (UCLA)

Using Housing Prices to Measure the Welfare Cost of Housing Supply Regulation
Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn (New York University Stern)
Weill, Pierre-Olivier (New York University Stern)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: New Strategies for Teaching Economics Courses
Presiding: Paul Romer (Stanford University)

Teaching the Dismal Science Socratically
Elzinga, Kenneth G. (University of Virginia)

A Fresh Look at the Daily Quiz: Engaging Students in Principles Courses
Hoyt, Gail (University of Kentucky)

The Principles of Macroeconomics Class: Teaching Aggregate Thinking
Wood, William C. (James Madison University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Recent Developments in the Analysis of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Policy Implications
Presiding: Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia)

Exchange Rate Policy and Endogenous Price Flexibility
Devereux, Michael B. (University of British Columbia)

High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-through in Business Cycle Models
Corsetti, Giancarlo (EUI)
Dedola, Luca (ECB)
Leduc, Sylvain (FRB)
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Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-rate Pass-through
Gust, Christopher (Federal Reserve Board)
Leduc, Sylvain (Federal Reserve Board)
Vigfusson, Robert (Federal Reserve Board)
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices: The Role of Non-linearities and Asymmetries
Bussiere, Matthieu (ECB)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Globalization: Multinational Firm Organization and Value Creation
Presiding: Ann Harrison (University of California, Berkeley)

Multinationals Do It Better: Evidence on the Efficiency of Corporations' Capital Budgeting
Greene, William H. (New York University)
Hornstein, Abigail S. (Wesleyan University)
White, Lawrence J. (New York University)
Yeung, Bernard Y. (New York University)

Organizational Form and Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations
Foley, C. Fritz (Harvard Business School)
Xuan, Yuhai (Harvard Business School)

Cross-regional Ties within Firms: Promoting Knowledge Flow or Discouraging Knowledge Spillover?
Zhao, Minyuan (University of Michigan)
Islam, Mazhar (University of Minnesota)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Monetary Systems: Transitions and Experiments
Presiding: Francois Velde (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

The Bank of Amsterdam
Roberds, Will (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Quinn, Stephen (Texas Christian University)
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Backing, the Quantity Theory, and the Transition to the Dollar, 1720-1850
Rousseau, Peter (Vanderbilt University)

The Political Economy of the U.S. Monetary Union: The Civil War Era as a Watershed
James, John (University of Virginia)
Weiman, David (Barnard College)
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John Law's System: An Experiment in Public Finance in 18th Century France
Velde, Francois (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Sudden Stops
Presiding: Marco Terrones (International Monetary Fund)

A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management
Caballero, Ricardo (MIT)
Panageas, Stavros (University of Pennsylvania)

Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q
Mendoza, Enrique (University of Maryland and NBER)
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International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence
Aizenman, Joshua (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Lee, Jaewoo (International Monetary Fund)
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Reconsidering the Evidence of Relative PPP in Large Devaluations
Alessandria, George (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Kaboski, Joseph (Ohio State University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Gender Implications of Social Welfare Policy Choices
Presiding: Katharine Abraham (University of Maryland)

Old, Poor, and Untreated? Demand for Antidepressants Among Older Women in the United States
Wilcox-Gok, Virginia (Northern Illinois University)
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Why Do Poor Mothers and Children Lose Health Insurance?
Corman, Hope (Rider University)
Noonan, Kelly (Rider University)
Reichman, Nancy E. (Robert Wood Johnson Medical School)
Carroll, Anne (Rider University)

Are Migrant Men and Women an Economic Burden? Changes in the Utilization and Contribution to Public Benefits Surrounding the 1996 Welfare Reform
Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (San Diego State University)
Bansak, Cynthia (San Diego State University)
Raphael, Steven (University of California, Berkeley)

Earnings Sharing and Social Security Solvency
Schwabish, Jonathan A. (Congressional Budget Office)
Simpson, Michael S. (Congressional Budget Office)
Topoleski, Julie H. (Congressional Budget Office)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Inaction and Adjustment: Consequences for Households and Firms
Presiding: Andrew Abel (University of Pennsylvania)

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market
Abel, Andrew (University of Pennsylvania)
Eberly, Janice (Northwestern University)
Panageas, Stavros (University of Pennsylvania)
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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D
Bloom, Nick (Stanford University)
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Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service
Sundaresan, Suresh (Columbia University)
Wang, Neng (Columbia University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Transparency of Political Institutions
Presiding: Ernesto Dal Bo (University of California, Berkeley)

The Perils of Transparency in Bureaucracies
Gavazza, Alessandro (Yale University)
Lizzeri, Alessandro (New York University)
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Decision Making Procedures for Committees of Careerist Experts
Levy, Gilat (London School of Economics)
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The Transparency of Politics and the Quality of Politicians
Mattozzi, Andrea (California Institute of Technology)
Merlo, Antonio (University of Pennsylvania)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Biological Evolution and Economics
Presiding: Luis Rayo (University of Chicago)

Some Evolutionary Economics of Family Partnerships
Bergstrom, Theodore C (University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Evolutionary Efficiency and Happiness
Rayo, Luis (University of Chicago)
Becker, Gary S. (University of Chicago)

Why do We Die? Economics, Biology and Aging
Robson, Arthur J (Simon Fraser University)
Kaplan, Hillard S (University of New Mexico)
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The Evolution of Intertemporal Incentives
Samuelson, Larry (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Robson, Arthur (Simon Fraser University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Defense Economics: Theory and Applications
Presiding: Claude Berrebi (RAND Corporation)

Military Conscription and the Socially Optimal Number of Boots on the Ground
Berck, Peter (UC Berkeley)
Lipow, Jonathan (Academic College of Judea and Samaria)
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The Economic Effects of Terrorism: Counterfactual Analysis of the Case of Israel
Persitz, Dotan (Tel Aviv University)
Tsiddon, Daniel (Tel Aviv University)
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Death (Machines) and (Optimal) Taxes
Lipow, Jonathan (Academic College of Judea and Samaria)
Plessner, Yakir (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
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Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach
Ben-Gad, Michael (Haifa University)
Ben-Haim, Yakov (Israel Institute of Technology (Technion))
Peled, Dan (Haifa University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Beyond Drug and Hospital Costs: Comprehensive Accounting for Health Care
Presiding: Steven J. Landefeld (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Medicare Part D, Prescription Drug Prices, and Treatment Quality
Berndt, Ernst (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Busch, Alisa M. (McLean Hospital and Harvard Medical School)
Frank, Richard G. (Harvard Medical School)
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Revising and Expanding National Health Accounts
Rosen, Allison (University of Michigan)

Measuring the Price and Output of Health Care Services
Christian, Michael (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

A Different Application for Productivity Measures, or Has the Difficulty of Measuring Physician Productivity Caused the Federal Deficit to be Understated?
Newhouse, Joseph (Harvard University)
Sinaiko, Anna D. (Harvard University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Health and Development in the Developed and Developing Worlds
Presiding: Kenneth Chay (University of California, Berkeley)

Does Money Matter? The Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Development in Rural Ecuador
Paxson, Christina (Princeton University and NBER)
Schady, Norbert (World Bank)
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Underdevelopment and Health: Indoor Air Pollution in South Asia
Rosenzweig, Mark (Yale University and NBER)

Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Is there a Causal Relationship Between Child Health and Human Capital Development?
Currie, Janet (Columbia University and NBER)
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Fast-Food Restaurant Advertising on Television and Its Influence on Childhood Obesity
Grossman, Michael (City University of New York and NBER)
Yi-Chou, Shin (Lehigh University and NBER)
Rashad, Inas (George State University and NBER)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Globalization and Economic Outcomes for Minority Groups
Presiding: James Peoples (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)

The Effect of Globalization on the Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the US: Does Owners' Race/Ethnicity Matter?
Asiedu, Elizabeth (University of Kansas)
Freeman, James (Wheaton College)
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The Effects of Recent Immigration and Trade on Racial/Ethnic Labor Market Differentials
Reed, Deborah (Public Policy Institute of California)
Danziger, Sheldon (University of Michigan)
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Foreign Direct Investment and Racial Employment Patterns
Gelan, Abera (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)
Husbands-Fealing, Kaye (Williams College)
Peoples, James (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)
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Differential Impacts of Immigrants on Native Black and White Workers
Ong, Paul (University of California, Los Angeles)
Mar, Don (San Francisco State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 12:30 PM

Session: Luncheon Honoring the 2005 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Thomas Schelling
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Title to come
Kreps, David (Stanford University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Search-and-Matching Financial Markets
Presiding: Pierre-Olivier Weill (New York University Stern School of Business)

Liquidity and Risk Management
Garleanu, Nicolae (The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvan)
Pedersen, Lasse Heje (New York University)
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Search in Asset Markets
Lagos, Ricardo (New York University, Federal Reserve Bank of Minne)
Rocheteau, Guillaume (University of Pennsylvania and Federal Reserve Ban)
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Information Percolation in Large Markets
Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University Graduate School of Business)
Manso, Gustavo (Stanford University Graduate School of Business)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Religion and Fertility
Presiding: Laurence Iannaccone (George Mason University)

From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline among European Catholics
Berman, Eli (University of California- San Diego)
Iannaccone, Laurence (George Mason University)
Ragusa, Giuseppe (Rutgers University)

Marital Fertility and Religion in Spain
Adsera, Alicia (University of Illinois-Chicago)

Missing Women and India's Religious Demography
Iyer, Sriya (Cambridge University)
Borooah, Vani (University of Ulster)
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Religious Affiliation and Participation as Determinants of Non-Marital Teen Fertility
Lehrer, Evelyn (University of Illinois at Chicago)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Household Responses to Capital Income Taxation
Presiding: Julie Cullen (University of California, San Diego)

A Tax Based Estimate of the Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution
Gruber, Jonathan (MIT)
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Taxes and Trading Behavior of Mutual Fund Investors Around Fund Distributions: Account-Level Evidence
Johnson, Woodrow (University of Oregon)
Poterba, James (MIT)

Bequest and Tax Planning: Evidence from Estate Tax Returns
Kopczuk, Wojciech (Columbia University)
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A Stylized Tax Reform in Presence of Precautionary Savings
Santoro, Marika (Congressional Budget Office)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Banking
Presiding: Wan-Ru Yang (University of California, Santa Barbara)

Signal Effect, Service Rule on an Equal Basis, and Bank Runs
Yang, Wan-Ru (University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Bank debt versus bond debt: Evidence from secondary market prices
Altman, Edward (New York University)
Gande, Amar (Southern Methodist University)
Saunders, Anthony (New York University)
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Money and Modern Banking without Bank Runs
Skeie, David (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Earnings Volatility and Its Implications
Presiding: Robert Moffitt (Johns Hopkins University)

Trends in Earnings Volatility in the U.S.
Gottschalk, Peter (Boston College)
Moffitt, Robert (Johns Hopkins University)

Income Inequality and the Persistence of Idiosyncratic Shocks
Blundell, Richard (University College London)
Meghir, Costas (University College London)
Robin, Jean-Marc (University of Paris I and University College London)

Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings
Cunha, Flavio (University of Chicago)
Heckman, James (University of Chicago)
Navarro, Salvador (University of Wisconsin)

Income Shocks, Schooling, Health and Child Labor in Rural Ethiopia.
Belay, Tekabe (Yale University)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: International Banking and International Capital Flows
Presiding: Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Trade, Non-Competitive Banking and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
Olivero, Maria Pia (Drexel University)
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Do U.S. Banks Transmit Business Cycles Internationally, or React to Them?
Cetorelli, Nicola (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Goldberg, Linda (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

The Macroeconomics of Financially Intermediated Small Open Economies
Oviedo, P. Marcelo (Iowa State University)

International Bank Portfolios and the Transmission of Shocks
Buch, Claudia (University of Tuebingen)
Blank, Sven (University of Tuebingen)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Case Studies in the Transition from Financial Theory to Business Practice
Presiding: John Ameriks (Vanguard Group)

Macro Securities
Shiller, Robert (Yale University)

Shared Equity Mortgages
Caplin, Andrew (New York University)
Pollock, Frederick (PCM Asset Management)
Thampy, Trivikraman (New York University)

Financial Innovations That Facilitate Asset Building by the Less Well-Off
Tufano, Peter (Harvard Business School)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Poster Session on Teaching Ideas and Projects
Presiding: Rae Jean B. Goodman (U.S. Naval Academy)

Collaborative Assignments without Regrets
Joerding, Wayne (Washington State University)
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Using Excel to Teach New Keynesian Economics
Kapinos, Pavel (Carleton College)

An Experimental Market for the Classroom to Test if Speculators Stabilize Prices
Kilkenny, Maureen (University of Nevada, Reno)

The Hogwarts System: An Internet Based Utility to Foster Students' Active Class Participation and Attendance
Lange, Carsten (California State University, Pomona)

Service or Community-Based Learning Projects
Lopez, Mary (Occidental College)

An On-Line Scavenger Hunt with Blackboard
Quinn, Michael A. (Bentley College)

iPods in Economics? Technology for Enhancing Active Learning
Shackelford, Jean (Bucknell University)
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The End of Teaching? The Use of Active Technology in the Large Introductory Economics Class
Sheflin, Neil (Rutgers University, New Brunswick)
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Active Learning Strategies for Microeconomic Theory
Smith, John Z. (New York University)
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Demand Analysis with "Real Data"
Stockly, Sue (Eastern New Mexico University)

Top Ten Lessons on Ethics in Economics: The Templeton/NCEE Project
Wight, Jonathan B. (University of Richmond)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: News, Expectations and Business Cycles
Presiding: Sergio Rebelo (Northwestern University)

Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles
Beaudry, Paul (University of British Columbia)
Collard, Fabrice Collard (University of Toulouse)
Portier, Franck (University of Toulouse)
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Monetary Policy and a Stock Market Boom-Bust Cycle
Christiano, Lawrence (Northwestern University)
Motto, Robert Motto (European Central Bank)
Rostagno, Massimo (European Central Bank)

Expectations and Asset Prices with Heterogeneous
Piazzesi, Monika (University of Chicago)
Schneider, Martin (New York University)

Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?
Jaimovich, Nir (Stanford University)
Rebelo, Sergio (Northwestern University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Antitrust and Competition Policy
Presiding: John Connor (Purdue University)

Optimal Deterrence and Private International Cartels
Connor, John M (Purdue University)
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A Framework for Analyzing the Antitrust Safety Zone
Kato, Mika (Howard University)
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International Competition Policy: Information Sharing between National Competition Authorities
Troya Martinez, Marta (University of Oxford)
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Forward contracts and collusion in the electricity markets
ZHANG, Yanhua (University of Toulouse)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Social Norms, Culture and Institutional Evolution
Presiding: Murat Iyigun (University of Colorado and IZA)

From Farmers to Merchants, Voluntary Conversions and the Diaspora: A Human Capital Interpretation of Jewish History
Botticini, Maristella (Boston University and CEPR)
Eckstein, Zvi (University of Minnesota, Tel Aviv University and C)
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Women, Property and Securities in the City of London, 1720-1725
Carlos, Ann (University of Colorado)
Neal, Larry (University of Illinois)

Luther and Suleyman
Iyigun, Murat (University of Colorado and IZA)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Factor Endowments, Relative Prices, and International Trade
Presiding: Robert Feenstra (University of California, Davis and NBER)

Bigger is Better: Market Size, Demand Elasticity and Resistance to Technology Adoption
Desmet, Klaus (Universidad Carlos III)
Parente, Stephen L. (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
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Outsourcing and Volatility
Bergin, Paul (University of California, Davis, and NBER)
Hanson, Gordon (University of California, San Diego, and NBER)
Feenstra, Robert (University of California, Davis, and NBER)
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Specialization, Trade in Intermediate Goods, and Wage Inequality
Tombazos, Christis (Monash University)
Zhang, Dingsheng (Monash University)
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Firm Heterogeneity, Export Participation, and Trade Reform
Alessandria, George (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Choi, Horag (University of Auckland)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Macro Fluctuations and Micro Adjustment Costs
Presiding: John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland)

Lumpy Investment in Dynamic General Equilibrium
Caballero, Ricardo (Department of Economics, MIT)
Engel, Eduardo (Department of Economics, Yale)
Bachmann, Ruediger (Department of Economics, Yale)

Investment Spikes: New Facts and a General Equilibrium Exploration
Kashyap, Anil (Graduate School of Business, Chicago University)
Gourio, Francois (Department of Economics, Boston University)
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The Impact of Uncertainty-Shocks: a Firm-Level Estimation and a 9/11 Simulation
Bloom, Nick (Department of Economics, Stanford)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Political Economy of Environmental and Trade Policy
Presiding: Sumeet Gulati (University of British Columbia)

Domestic Policies, Hidden Protection and the GATT/WTO
Bajona, Claustre (University of Miami)
Ederington, Josh (University of Kentucky)
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Canadian/U.S. Softwood Timber Trade Dispute: An Examination of Resolutions and Steps Forward
List, John (University of Chicago)
Millimet, Daniel (Southern Methodist University)
Price, Michael (University of Nevada, Reno)

Regulatory Takings and Environmental Regulation in NAFTA's Chapter 11
Aisbett, Emma (University of California, Berkeley)
Karp, Larry (University of California, Berkeley)
McAusland, Carol (University of Maryland)
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Institutionalized Pollution Havens
Cole, Matthew (University of Birmingham)
Frederiksson, Per (University of Louisville)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Looking Down the Pipeline: Female Economists in the Making (In Honor of CSWEP's 35th Anniversary)
Presiding: Lisa Lynch (Tufts University)

Panel Discussion
Dynan, Karen (Federal Reserve Board)

Panel Discussion
Johnson, Marianne (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh)

Panel Discussion
Owen, Ann (Hamilton College)

Panel Discussion
Starr, Martha (American University)

Panel Discussion
Weinberger, Catherine (University of California, Santa Barbara)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Strategic Reporting in Online Feedback Mechanisms
Presiding: Hal R. Varian (University of California, Berkeley)

The Sound of Silence in Online Feedback: Estimating Trading Risks in the Presence of Reporting Bias
Dellarocas, Chrysanthos (MIT)
Wood, Charles A. (Notre Dame)
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The Dynamics of Seller Reputation: Evidence from eBay
Cabral, Luis M. B. (NYU Stern)
Hortacsu, Ali (University of Chicago)

Last Minute Feedback
Klein, Tobias J. (University of Mannheim)
Lambertz, Christian (University of Mannheim)
Spagnolo, Giancarlo (Consip and Stockholm School of Economics)
Stahl, Konrad O. (University of Mannheim)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Consumer-Directed Health Care: A Wise Choice?
Presiding: Daniel McFadden (University of California, Berkeley)

Aging and Equilibrium
Laibson, David (Harvard University)
Gabaix, Xavier (MIT)
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Consumer Perceptions and Choices for Prescription Drug and Long-Term Care Insurance: Evidence from the Retirement Perspectives Surve
Winter, Joachim (University of Munich)
Heiss, Florian (University of Munich)
McFadden, Daniel (University of California, Berkeley)

The Demand for Prescription Drugs and Medicare Part D: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey
Weir, David (University of Michigan)
Willis, Robert (University of Michigan)

Knowledge of Drug Costs and Prescription Drug Insurance Plan Preferences
Hurd, Michael (RAND Corporation)
Kapteyn, Arie (RAND Corporation)
Rohwedder, Susann (RAND Corporation)
van Soest, Arthur (RAND Corporation)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Unemployment in Transition Economies: Why so High?
Presiding: Orley Ashenfelter (Princeton University)

Why Is Unemployment So High in Eastern Europe? The Role of Initial Conditions versus Labor Market Institutions
Blanchard, Olivier (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Commander, Simon (London Business School)

Why is Unemployment in Central and Eastern Europe So High Today?
Jurajda, Stephan (CERGE-EI)
Terrell, Katherine (University of Michigan)

The Efficiency of Employer-Worker Matching in the East and West
Munich, Daniel (CERGE-EI)
Svejnar, Jan (University of Michigan)

Job Destruction, Job Creation and Unemployment in Transition Countries: What Can We Learn?
Faggio, Giulia (London School of Economics)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: A Productive Decade: A Retrospective on the U.S. Productivity Resurgence
Presiding: Daniel Sichel (Federal Reserve Board)

A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence
Jorgenson, Dale (Harvard University)
Stiroh, Kevin (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Ho, Mun S. (Reources for the Future)
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A Microeconomic View of the Sources of the U.S. Productivity Resurgence
Baily, Martin (Institute for International Economics)

Why Is Productivity Growth in Europe Still Slow? On the Role of ICT and Innovation in Market Services
van Ark, Bart (University of Groningen)
Inklaar, Robert (University of Groningen)
Timmer, Marcel (University of Groningen)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Is Foreign Aid Helping?
Presiding: William Easterly (New York University)

Aid Effectiveness -- Opening the Black Box
Bourguignon, Francois (World Bank)
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Does Aid Affect Governance?
Rajan, Raghuram (International Monetary Fund)
Subramanian, Arvind (International Monetary Fund)
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Was Development Assistance a Mistake?
Easterly, William (New York University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Valuding Morbidity and Mortality Risk Reductions
Presiding: Maureen Cropper (University of Maryland and World Bank)

Are Hazardous Waste Sites Hazardous to Human Health? Evidence from Superfund Clean-Ups and Infant Health
Greenstone, Michael (MIT)
Currie, Janet (Columbia University)
Moretti, Enrico (University of California, Berkeley)

The Value of Health and Longevity
Murphy, Kevin M. (University of Chicago)
Topel, Robert H. (University of Chicago)

A Generalized Model of Demand for Risk Reductions: Estimating the Value of a Statistical Illness Profile
Cameron, Trudy Ann (University of Oregon)
Deshazo, J. R. (University of California, Los Angeles)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum: The Political Economy of John Kenneth Galbraith
Presiding: Andrew F. Brimmer (Brimmer & Co. and University of Massachusetts, Amherst)

Galbraith: Political and Economic Perspectives
Parker, Richard (Harvard University)

Assessment of Galbraith's Major Contributions to Economics
DeLong, J. Bradford (University of California, Berkeley)

Political Economy of John Kenneth Galbraith: Glimpses of His Eclectic Academic Life
Brimmer, Andrew F. (Brimmer & Co., Inc., and University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Income Distribution, Growth and Poverty
Presiding: Stanley Lawson (St. John's University)

Economic Development and Income Distribution
Campano, Fred (Fordham University and United Nations)
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Globalization, Growth, Income Distribution and Poverty
Salvatore, Dominick (Fordham University)

Patterns of Income Distribution Among World Regions
Walker, Douglas O. (Regent University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government
Presiding: Thornton Matheson (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

Multilateral Organizations and the International Economy
Krueger, Anne (Stanford University and International Monetary Fund)


Saturday, January 6, 2007, 4:40 PM

Session: Presidential Address
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

The Missing Motivation in Macroeconomics
Akerlof, George A. (University of California, Berkeley)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007



Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Empirical Corporate Finance
Presiding: Amar Gande (Vanderbilt University)

Is There Timing Ability in Currency Markets? Evidence from ADR Issuances
Pasquariello, Paolo (University of Michigan)
Yuan, Kathy (University of Michigan)
Zhu, Qiaoqiao (University of Michigan)
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Going-Private Decisions and the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002: A Cross-Country Analysis
Karaca-Mandic, Pinar (RAND Corporation)
Kamar, Ehud (University of Southern California)
Talley, Eric (University of California, Berkeley and RAND Corporation)
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Does Global Diversification Destroy Value?
Gande, Amar (Vanderbilt University)
Schenzler, Christoph (Vanderbilt University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Frontiers of Research in Venture Capital
Presiding: Yael Hochberg (Northwestern University)

The Importance of Trust for Investment: Evidence from Venture Capital
Bottazzi, Laura (Bocconi University)
Da Rin, Marco (Bocconi University)
Hellmann, Thomas (University of British Columbia)
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Learning by Investing, Evidence from Venture Capital
Sorensen, Morten (University of Chicago)

The dynamics of venture capital contracts
Bienz, Carsten (London School of EconomicsNorwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, London)
Hirsch, Julia Hirsch (Goethe UniversityUniversidad Iberoamericana, Mexico City and Center for Financial)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Employment Protection
Presiding: Lawrence Kahn (Cornell University)

Do Employment Protections Reduce Productivity?
Autor, David (MIT)
Kerr, William (Harvard University)
Kugler, Adriana (University of Houston)

Employment Protection: Tough to Scrap or Tough to Get?
Bruegemann, Bjoern (Yale University)
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The Impact of Employment Protection Mandates on Demographic Temporary Employment Patterns: International Microeconomic Evidence
Kahn, Lawrence (Cornell University)
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Legal Default Rules: The Case of Wrongful Discharge Laws
MacLeod, W. Bentley (Columbia University)
Nakavachara, Voraprapa (University of Southern California)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Taxes and Income Distribution
Presiding: Leonard Burman (Tax Policy Center)

Tax Share Dynamics
Ackerman, Deena (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Cooper, Michael (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Cronin, Julie-Anne (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Gee, Geoffrey (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
Nunns, James (U.S. Department of the Treasury)

No Rise in Income Inequality? A Reappraisal of the German Income Distribution Based on Income Tax
Bach, Stefan (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))
Corneo, Giacomo (Free University of Berlin)
Steiner, Viktor (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))
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Indexing the Tax System for Inequality
Burman, Leonard (Tax Policy Center)
Rohaly, Jeffrey (Tax Policy Center)
Shiller, Robert (Yale University)
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Unresolved Issues in the Rise of Inequality
Dew-Becker, Ian (NBER)
Gordon, Robert J. (Northwestern University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Child Development
Presiding: Kirstine Hansen (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education)

Does mothers' employment conflict with child development? Multilevel analysis of British mothers born in 1958
Joshi, Heather (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Educ)
Verropoulou, Georgia (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Educ)
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Comparing early maternal employment and child development in the U.K. and U.S.
Crosby, Danielle (University of Chicago)
Hawkes, Denise (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Educ)

Mothers' return to work , childcare and child development
Gregg, Paul (University of Bristol)
Hansen, Kirstine (Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Educ)

Income and Child Development
Berger, Lawrence (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Paxson, Christina (Princeton University)
Waldfogel, Jane (Columbia University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Computer Assisted Instruction: New Instructional Applications
Presiding: Betty J. Blecha (San Francisco State University)

Principles as an Economic Gain
Allen, Stuart (University of North Carolina, Greensboro)

From Zero to Agent-Based Modeling in Ten Weeks
Clerici Arias, Marcelo (Stanford University)

Looking Beyond the Whiz-Bang Technology: Using Wireless Teaching Tools to Improve Economic Instruction
Talley, Daniel A. (Dakota State University)
Myers, Steven C. (University of Akron)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Modeling Inflation Dynamics
Presiding: Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe (Duke University)

Incomplete Markets, Idiosyncratic Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy
Pescatori, Andrea (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
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Time-Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
Lansing, Kevin (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
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State-Dependent Nominal Rigidities & Disinflation Programs in Small Open Economies.
Hernandez, Kolver (University of Delaware)
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How to End a Pegged Exchange Rate Regime
Ravenna, Federico (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Dedola, Luca (European Central Bank)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Confronting Theory with Experimental Data and Vice Versa
Presiding: Shachar Kariv (University of California, Berkeley)

Sequential Equilibrium in Monotone Games: Theory-Based Analysis of Experimental Data
Choi, Syngjoo (University College London)
Gale, Douglas (New York University)
Kariv, Shachar (University of California, Berkeley)

Heterogeneous Quantal Response Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchies
Camerer, Colin (California Institute of Technology)
Palfrey, Thomas (Princeton University)
Rogers, Brian (California Institute of Technology)

Narrow Bracketing and Dominated Choices
Rabin, Matthew (University of California, Berkeley)
Weizsacker, Georg (London School of Economics)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: New Developments in Unified Growth Theory
Presiding: Joel Mokyr (Northwestern University)

Understanding Growth in Europe, 1700-1870:Theory and Evidence
MOKYR, JOEL (NORThWESTERN UNIVERSITY)
VOTH, HANS-JOACHIM (University of Pompeu Fabra)

Inequality in Land Ownership, the Emergence of Human Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence
Galor, Oded (Brown University)
Moav, Omer (Hebrew University)
Vollrath, Dietrich (University of Houston)
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From Growth Spurts to Sustained Growth: The Nature of Growth and Unified Growth Theory
Montiero, Goncalo (University of York)
Pereira, Alvaro (University of York)
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Colonies
DOEPKE, MATTHIAS (UNIVERSITY CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES)
EISFELDT, ANDREAa (NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Global Outsourcing and Subcontracting
Presiding: Katja Seim (Stanford University)

Input Specificity and Global Sourcing
Van Assche, Ari (HEC Montreal)
Schwartz, Galina (UC Berkeley)
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Global Sourcing in Innovation: The Model and the Evidence from the Information Technology Hardware Industry
LI, Wendy Chuen-Yueh (University of California, Los Angeles)
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Specialization and Subcontracting
Seim, Katja (University of Pennsylvania)
Krasnokutskaya, Elena (University of Pennsylvania)

The Design of Industry
Wernerfelt, Birger (MIT)
Novak, Sharon (MIT)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Deflations and Depressions
Presiding: Gauti Eggerstson (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Monetary Intervention Mitigated Banking Panics
Richardson, Gary (University of California, Irvine)
Trost, William (University of California, Irvine)
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Monetary Contraction and the Great Depression
Ohanian, Lee (University of California, Los Angeles)

Great Expectations and the End of the Depression
Eggertsson, Gauti (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Three Great American Disinflations
Bordo, Michael (Rutgers University)
Erceg, Chris (Federal Reserve Board)
Levin, Andrew (Federal Reserve Board)
Michaels, Ryan (Federal Reserve Board)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Demographics and Macroeconomics
Presiding: Nir Jaimovich (University of California, San Diego)

Social Security, Life Insurance and Annuities for Families
Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor (University of Pennsylvania)
H. Hong, Jay (University of Pennsylvania)
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First Time Home Buyers and the Decline in Aggregate Volatility
Fisher, Jonas (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Gervais, Martin (University of Western Ontario)

Demographic Change and Business Cycle Volatility
Jaimovich, Nir (Stanford University)
Siu, Henry (University of British Columbia)

Health Insurance and Tax Policy
Jeske, Karsten (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Kitao, Sagiri (New York)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Voting
Presiding: John Morgan (University of California, Berkeley)

Modern Voting Tools, Social Incentives and Voter Turnout: Theory and Evidence
Funk, Patricia (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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Information, Closeness of Elections and Authoritarianism
Rohner, Dominic (University of Cambridge)
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Policy Positions, Information Acquisition and Turnout
Degan, Arianna (University of Quebec, Montreal)

Efficient Information Aggregation with Costly Voting
Morgan, John (University of California, Berkeley)
Krishna, Vijay (Pennsylvania State University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Complex Networks in Trade and Finance
Presiding: Raja Kali (University of Arkansas)

Financial Contagion on the International Trade Network
Kali, Raja (University of Arkansas)
Reyes, Javier (University of Arkansas)
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The Linchpins of a Modern Economy
Fisher, Eric (The Ohio State University)
Vega, Fernando (University of Alicante)
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Networking Cities, Weaving States: The Early Modern Geography of Money
Flandreau, Marc (Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po))
Jobst, Clemens (Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po))
Galimard, Christophe (Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris (Sciences Po))
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Matching and Network Effects
Fafchamps, Marcel (University of Oxford)
van der Leij, Marco J. (Erasmus University)
Goyal, Sanjeev (University of Essex)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Corporate Governance
Presiding: Victor Nee (Cornell University)

State Bureaucratic Performance and the Corporation
Opper, Sonja (Lund University)
Nee, Victor (Cornell University)
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CEO Power, Compensation, and Governance
Albuquerque, Rui (Boston University)
Miao, Jianjun (Boston University)
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Pension reforms, ownership structure and corporate governance: Evidence from Sweden
Giannetti, Mariassunta (Stockholm School of Economics)
Laeven, Luc (World Bank)
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Law, Corporate Governance, and Corporate Scandal in an Emerging Economy: Insights from China
Zhang, Yi (Peking University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: For Love or Money: Marriage, Fertility and Female Status
Presiding: Robert Pollak (Washington University and NBER)

Public Transfers and Spousal Violence
Bobonis, Gustavo (University of Toronto)
Castro, Roberto (Universidad Nacioana Autonoma de Mexico)
Gonzalez-Brenes, Melissa (University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
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Who Suffered from the Superstition in the Marriage Market? The Case of Hinoeuma in Japan
Akabayashi, Hideo (Keio University)
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Women Without Children? The Impact of Divorce Laws on Fertility
Alesina, Alberto (Harvard University)
Giuliano, Paola (International Monetary Fund)

Why Can't a Woman Bid More Like a Man?
Katuscak, Peter (CERGE and University of California, San Diego)
Chen, Yan (University of Michigan)
Ozdenoren, Emre (University of Michigan)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Field Experiments in Microfinance
Presiding: Dean Karlan (Yale University)

Group versus Individual Liability Loans: A Field Experiment in the Philippines
Gine, Xavier (World Bank)
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)

What are the returns to capital in microenterprises? Results from a randomized experiment in Sri Lanka.
McKenzie, David (World Bank)
Woodruff, Christopher (UCSD)
de Mel, Suresh (IMF)

The Supply and Demand Side Impacts of Credit Market Information
Mcintosh, Craig (UCSD)
de Janvry, Alain (University of California, Berkeley)
Sadoulet, Elisabeth (University of California, Berkeley)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Empirical Corporate Credit Risk Rating
Presiding: Fan Yu (University of California, Irvine)

Information, Liquidity and Corporate Yield Spreads
Zhou, Xing (Rutgers University)
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Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms
Zhou, Hao (Federal Reserve Board)
Zhang, Benjamin Yibin (Fitch Ratings)
Zhu, Haibin (Bank for International Settlements)
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The Information Content of Option-Implied Volatility for Credit Default Swap Valuation
Cao, Charles (Pennsylvania State University)
Yu, Fan (University of California, Irvine)
Zhong, Zhaodong (Pennsylvania State University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Macro Applications of Robust Control
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy
Woodford, Michael (Columbia University)

Design Limits
Rondina, Giacomo (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Durlauf, Steve (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Brock, William (University of Wisconsin, Madison)

Fragile Expectations and the Market Price of Model Uncertainty
Hansen, Lars (University of Chicago)
Sargent, Thomas (New York University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Culture and Economics
Presiding: Alessandra Fogli (New York University)

The Evolution of Preferences and Women's Work: A Quantitative Evaluation of the Role of Culture
Fernandez, Raquel (New York University)
Fogli, Alessandra (New York University)

"Bend it like Becham": Identity, Socialization, and Assimilation
Bisin, Alberto (New York University)
Patacchini, Eleonora (Universita' di Roma "La Sapienza")
Verdier, Thierry (PSE, France)
Zenou, Yves (IUI, Sweden)
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Conformity, Consistency, and Cultural Heterogeneity
Page, Scott (University of Michigan)
Bednar, Jenna (University of Michigan)
Jones-Rooy, Andrea (University of Michigan)
Bramson, Aaron (University of Michigan)
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The Impact of Political Legitimacy on Developmental Trajectories
Greif, Avner (Stanford University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Dynamic Games
Presiding: Flavio Toxvaerd (University of Cambridge)

Alternating Offer Bargaining with Endogenous Information
Dang, Tri Vi (University of Mannheim)
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Robust Herding with Endogenous Ordering and One-Sided Commitment
Zhang, Yi (University of California, Los Angeles)
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DYNAMIC LIMIT PRICING
Toxvaerd, Flavio (University of Cambridge)
Tauman, Yair (State University of New York, Stony Brook and Tel Aviv University)

Cooperation and Reputation
Bergh, Andreas (The Ratio Institute)
Engseld, Peter (Lund University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Human Capital Investment and Borrowing Constraints
Presiding: Christopher Taber (Northwestern University)

Understanding the Importance of Credit Constraints in Higher Education: Two Direct Approaches
Stinebrickner, Todd (Western Ontario)

The Role of Short Term and Long Run Family Credit Constraints on Child Development and Education
Heckman, James (University of Chicago)
Cuhna, Flavio (University of Chicago)

Estimating the Effect of Student Aid on College Enrollment: Evidence from a Government Grant Policy Reform
Skyt Nielsen, Helena (University of Aarhus)
Sorensen, Torben (Univeristy of Aarhus)
Taber, Christopher (Northwestern University)
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Maternal Employment, Migration, and Child Development
Liu, Haiyong (East Carolina University)
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (University of North Carolina)
Mroz, Thomas (University of North Carolina)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Recent developments in endogenous growth theory
Presiding: Michelle Connolly (Duke University)

Evolution of Entrepreneurial Spirit and the Process of Development
Galor, Oded (Brown University)
Michalopoulos, Stelios (Brown University)
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When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth?
Howitt, Peter (Brown University)
Aghion, Philippe (Harvard University)
COmin, Diego (New York University)
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Augmenting Technical Change
Peretto, Pietro (Duke University)
Seater, John (NC State University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Computer Assisted Instruction: New resources and Updates
Presiding: Tod S. Porter (Youngstown State University)

New Developments in the UK Economics Network
Pomorina, Inna (University of Bristol)
Sloman, John (University of Bristol)
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Mathematics for Economics: An Update on the METAL Project
Taylor, Rebecca (Nottingham Trent University)
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Using Wikis to Empower Student Learning in Seminar Courses
Greenlaw, Steve (University of Mary Washington)
Elzer, Elizabeth (University of Mary Washington)

FlashEcon and Opus: Constructing Internet Applications to Support Instruction
Fung, K. K. (University of Memphis)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: House Prices
Presiding: Edward Glaeser (Harvard University)

Why Do Housing Prices Mean Revert?
Glaeser, Edward (Harvard University)
Gyourko, Joseph (University of Pennsylvania)

Monetary Policy and the house Price Boom Across U.S. States
Otrok, Christopher (University of Virginia)
Del Negro, Marco (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
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Hedonic Analysis of House Prices: New Data, New Methods
Caplin, Andrew (New York University)
Leahy, John (New York University)
Thampy, Trivikraman (New York University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Exchange Rate Puzzles
Presiding: Martin Eichenbaum (Northwestern University)

The Returns to Currency Speculation
Eichenbaum, Martin (Northwestern University)
Burnside, Craig (Duke University)
Kleshchelski, Isaac (Northwestern University)
Rebelo, Sergio (Northwestern University)
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Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium
Alvarez, Fernando (University of Chicago)
Atkeson, Andrew (University of California, Los Angeles)
Kehoe, Patrick (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
Van Wincoop, Eric (University of Virginia)
Bacchetta, Philippe (University of Lausanne)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Economics of the Long Tail
Presiding: Felix Oberholzer-Gee (Harvard University)

E-commerce and the Market Structure of Retail Industries
Emre, Onsel (University of Chicago)
Hortacsu, Ali (University of Chicago)
Syverson, Chad (University of Chicago)
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Entertainment Products in Online and Offline Channels: An Examination of the "Long Tail"
Elberse, Anita (Harvard University)
Oberholzer-Gee, Felix (Harvard University)
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Goodbye Pareto Principle, Hello Long Tail: Modeling and Measuring the Effect of Search Cost on Product Sales Distribution
Brynjolfsson, Erik (MIT)
Hu, Yu Jeffrey (Purdue University)
Simester, Duncan (MIT)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: International Capital Flows
Presiding: Robert Kollmann (University of Paris)

Intertemporal Approach to the Financial Account
Rey, Helene (Princeton University)
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (University of California, Berkeley)

International Capital Flows, Returns and World Financial Integration
Evans, Martin (Georgetown University)
Hnatkovska, Viktoria (Georgetown University)

Net Exports, Consumption Volatility and International Business Cycle Models
Raffo, Andrea (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account
Kollmann, Robert (ECARES, Free University of Brussels and University Paris XII)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Big Box Stores and the Future of Retail
Presiding: Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania)

The Evolution of National Retail Chains: How We Got Here
Foster, Lucia (U.S. Census Bureau)
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
Krizan, C.J. (U.S. Census Bureau)
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Supersize It: The Growth of Retail Chains and the Rise of Big Box Stores
Basker, Emek (University of Missouri)
Klimek, Shawn (U.S. Census Bureau)
Van, Pham Hoang (University of Missouri)

What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town: An Empirical Analysis of the Discount Retailing Industry
Jia, Panle (MIT)
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The Dynamics of Retail Oligopoly
Ellickson, Paul (Duke University)
Beresteanu, Arie (Duke University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Group, Dissertation Session
Presiding: Susan Collins (Georgetown University and Brookings Institution)

What Makes You Go Back Home? Determinants of the Duration of Migration of Mexican Immigrants in the U.S.
Carrion-Flores, Carmen (University of Arizona)
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The Employment Effect of Antidepressants for Women Living with HIV in the U.S.: Evidence from the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS), 1994-2004
Galarraga, Omar (Johns Hopkins University)
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Is It Really Safe Sex? Analyzing the Causal Link between Contraceptive Use and Crime Rates
Hill, NIcholas J. (Jackson State University)
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The Macroeconomy and Health Insurance Coverage of Minorities
Price, Adrian (Jackson State University)

A Confidence Interval for Default and Prepayment Predictions of Manufactured Housing Seasoned Loans
Wandey, Fred (University of Minnesota)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Debt Restructuring
Presiding: Hulya Eraslan (University of Pennsylvania)

Sovereign Debt without Default Penalties
Guembel, Alexander (Oxford University, Said Business School)
Sussman, Oren (Oxford University, Said Business School)
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Sovereign Bond Restructuring Revisited
Kletzer, Kenneth (University of California, Santa Cruz)
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Strategic Voting over Strategic Proposals
Bond, Philip (University of Pennsylvania)
Eraslan, Hulya (University of Pennsylvania)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Risksharing and Cooperation in Social Networks
Presiding: Markus Mobius (Harvard University)

Reciprocity in Groups and the Limits to Social Capital
Bloch, Francis (GREQAM)
Genicot, Garance (Georgetown University)
Ray, Debraj (New York University)
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Risk Sharing Networks
Bramoulle, Yann (Universite Lavel)
Kranton, Rachel (University of Maryland)
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The Formation of Risk Sharing Networks
Fafchamps, Marcel (University of Oxford)
Gubert, Flore (IRD-Paris, DIAL)
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Cooperation and Trust in Social Networks
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
Mobius, Markus (Harvard University)
Rosenblat, Tanya (Wesleyan University)
Szeidl, Adam (University of California, Berkeley)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Patents and Copyrights
Presiding: Robert Hunt (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)

An Empirical Analysis of Non-Rival Patent Litigation
Hall, Bronwyn (University of California, Berkeley and MERIT)
Ham-Ziedonis, Rosemarie (University of Michigan)

The Value of U.S. Patents by Owner and Patent Characteristics
Bessen, James (Research on Innovation and Boston University)
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The Democratization of U.S. Research and Development after 1980
Hunt, Robert (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Nakamura, Leonard (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
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Copyright Duration and the Supply of Creative Work: Evidence from the Movies
Png, Ivan (National University of Singapore)
Wang, Qiu-Hong (Accenture)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Economics and Child Well-Being
Presiding: Marianne Page (University of California Davis)

Mental Health in Childhood and Human Capital
Currie, Janet (Columbia University)
Stabile, Mark (University of Toronto)
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The Early Development and Health Benefits of Maternity Leave Mandates
Baker, Michael (University of Toronto)
Milligan, Kevin (University of British Columbia)
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Father's Education and Children's Human Capital: Evidence from the WWII GI Bill
Page, Marianne (University of California Davis)
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Maternal Schooling and Early Human Capital Investments
McCrary, Justin (University of Michigan)
Royer, Heather (University of Michigan)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Growth Transitions
Presiding: Simon Johnson (MIT)

Growth Accelerations
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Pritchett, Lant (World Bank)
Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)

Reliving the 50s: the Big Push, Poverty Traps, and Takeoffs in Economic Development
Easterly, William (New York University)
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The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth
Jones, Benjamin (Northwestern University)
Olken, Benjamin (Harvard University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Economics of HIV/AIDS in Asia: Economic Development Risks
Presiding: Markus Haacker (International Monetary Fund)

HIV/AIDS, Health, and Economic Development in Asia
Haacker, Markus (International Monetary Fund)

Understanding and Responding to a Heterogeneous Epidemic: Evolution of the Epidemic, Its Main Drivers and Implications for Awareness and Prevention Strategies
Wilson, David (World Bank)
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Cost Effectiveness and Fiscal Burden of AIDS Treatment Programs: A Simulation Model to Maintain Financial Sustainability Using Data for Thailand and India
Over, Mead (Center for Global Development)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Comparative Economics at the Firm Level: Effects of Country and Ownership Type
Presiding: Gerard Roland (University of California, Berkeley)

Measuring and Explaining Management Practices across Firms and Countries
Bloom, Nick (Stanford University and London School of Economics)
Van Reenen, John (London School of Economics)
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Sorting, Selection and the Role of Organizational Ownership in Consumer Choice
Schlesinger, Mark (Yale University)

Diversity of Governance Governance-Organization Architecture Linkage: Complementarities and Human Assets Essentiality
Aoki, Masahiko (Stanford University)
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Comparison of Structure, Behavior and performance in For-Profit, Nonprofit and Government Organizations: A Study of Nursing Homes
Ben-Ner, Avner (University of Minnesota)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Corporate Governance and Performance II
Presiding: Lemma W. Senbet (University of Maryland)

Optimal and Mandatory Transparency: Implications for Corporate Governance Regulation
Hermalin, Benjamin E. (University of California, Berkeley)
Weisbach, Michael S. (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
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Debt and Managerial Rents in a Real-Options Model of the Firm
Myers, Stewart (MIT)
Lambrecht, Bart (Lancaster University)

Payout Policy, Agency Conflicts, and Corporate Governance
John, Kose (New York University)
Knyazeva, Anzhela ()


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Emerging Market Bond Credit Spreads
Presiding: John Hund (University of Texas)

Determinants of Spreads on Sovereign Bank Loans: The Role of Credit History
Benczur, Peter (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
Ilut, Cosmin (Northwestern University)
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U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and Emerging Markets' Sovereign Spreads
Alper, C. Emre (Bogazici University)
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Liquidity and Credit Risk in Emerging Debt Markets
Lesmond, David (Tulane University)
Hund, John (University of Texas)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Social Comparison and the Labor Market
Presiding: Eva Meyersson Milgrom (Stanford University)

Status, Relative Wage, and Pay: Evidence from M&A
Kwon, Illoong (SUNY-Albany)
Meyersson Milgrom, Eva (Stanford University)
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Expenditure Cascades
Frank, Robert (Cornell University)
Levine, Adam ()
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Does Pay Inequality Affect Worker Effort? Experimental Evidence
Charness, Gary (UC - Santa Barbara)
Kuhn, Peter (UC - Santa Barbara)
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Social concerns, diversity and the labor market
Weiss, Yoram (Tel Aviv University)
Fershtman, Chaim (Tel Aviv University)
Hvide, Hans (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Adminis)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Racial Segregation
Presiding: Patrick Bayer (Yale University)

Checks and Balances in School District Desegregation: The Impact of Congress, the Courts, and the Executive Branch After 1965
Cascio, Elizabeth (UC Davis)
Gordon, Nora (UC San Diego)
Lewis, Ethan (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Reber, Sarah (UCLA)

Inside the Black Box of 'White Flight': The Role of Suburban Political Autonomy and Public Goods
Boustan, Leah (UCLA)

The Effects of School Desegregation on Crime
Ludwig, Jens (Georgetown University)
Lutz, Byron (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Weiner, David (New York City Department of Education)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Empirical Implications of Signaling Models
Presiding: Tsu-Yu Tsao (Bard College)

The Signaling Value of Unpaid Overtime
Anger, Silke (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin))
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The Timing of Signaling: To Study in High School or in College?
Lee, Sanghoon (University of British Columbia)
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Diamonds may be Forever, but Marriages are not - A Test of the Signaling Model of Diamond Engagement Rings
Tsao, Tsu-Yu (Bard College)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Parental Investments and Children's Achievements
Presiding: Raquel Bernal (Northwestern University)

Family Structure Dynamics and Child Outcomes
Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (University of North Carolina)
Blau, David (University of North Carolina)

Investment in Child Quality Over Marital States
Brown, Meta (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Flinn, Christopher J. (New York University)
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Divorce and the Cognitive Achievement of Children
Tartari, Melissa (Yale University)

Quasi-structural Estimation of a Model of Child Care Choices and Child Cognitive Ability Production
Bernal, Raquel (Northwestern University)
Keane, Michael (University of Technology in Sydney)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Returns to Capital over the Business Cycle
Presiding: Maria Pia Olivero (Drexel University)

The Return to Capital and the Business Cycle
Gomme, Paul (Concordia University)
Kumar, B. Ravi (University of Iowa)
Rupert, Peter (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
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Non-convex Factor Adjustments in a Two Country Real Business Cycle Model
Bayer, Christian (University of Dortmund)
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The Credit Channel in a Small, Open Economy
Schaller, Huntley (Carleton University and Institute for Advanced Studies (Vienna))
Junayed, Sadaquat (Carleton University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Wealth and Health Dynamics of the Elderly
Presiding: Andrew Caplin (New York University)

The Impact of Medicaid on the Demand for Long-Term Care Insurance
Brown, Jeffrey (University of Illinois)
Coe, Norma (Tilburg University)
Finkelstein, Amy (MIT)
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Are You Sure You're Saving Enough for Retirement?
Skinner, Jonathan (Dartmouth College)

Strategic Surveys and the Bequest Motive
Ameriks, John (Vanguard Group)
Caplin, Andrew (New York University)
Laufer, Steven (New York University)
van Nieuweerburgh, Stijn (New York University)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Bayesian Estimation of DGSE Models
Presiding: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania)

Labor Market Dynamics in an Estimated Monetary Model
Williams, Noah (Princeton University)

MARKOV-SWITCHING STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS: THEORY AND APPLICATION
Zha, Tao (Atlanta Fed)
Rubio, Juan (Atlanta Fed)
Waggoner, Daniel (Atlanta Fed)

Estimating Macroeconomic Models: A Likelihood Approach
Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)
Rubio, Juan (Atlanta Fed)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Entry, Exit and Industry Structure
Presiding: Mark Roberts (Pennsylvania State University)

Entry and Exit in Geographic Markets
Dunne, Tim (University of Oklahoma)
Klimek, Shawn (U.S. Burean of the Census)
Roberts, Mark (Pennsylvania State University)
Xu, Yi (Pennsylvania State University)

Technological Innovation and Market Turbulence: The Dot-com Experience
Wang, Zhu (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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Inferring Conduct under the Threat of Entry: The Case of the Brazilian Cement Industry
Salvo, Alberto (Northwestern University)
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Was There Too Little Entry during the Dot Com Era?
Goldfarb, Brent (University of Maryland)
Kirsch, David (University of Maryland)
Miller, David A. (University of San Diego)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Financial globalization and integration
Presiding: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (European Central Bank)

Global Growth Opportunities and Market Integration
Bekaert, Geert (Columbia University)
Harvey, Campbell R. (Duke University)
Lundblad, Christian (Indiana University)
Siegel, Stephan (Columbia University)

Inflows of FDI vs. Inflows of FPI: Fundamental Determinants
Razin, Assaf (Tel Aviv University)
Goldstein, Itay (University of Pennsylvania)

A Solution to Two Paradoxes on International Capital Flows
Wei, Shang-Jin (IMF)
Ju, Jiandong (IMF)

Home Bias in Global Bond and Equity Markets and Real Exchange Rate Movements
Fidora, Michael (European Central Bank)
Fratzscher, Marcel (European Central Bank)
Thimann, Christian (European Central Bank)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: New Explanations for the Great Moderation
Presiding: Ben Friedman (Harvard University)

The Great Moderation: What Do the Household Data Say?
Dynan, Karen (Federal Reserve Board)
Elmendorf, Doug (Federal Reserve Board)
Sichel, Dan (Federal Reserve Board)

Financial Development, Consumption Smoothing, and the Reduced Volatility of Real Growth
Cecchetti, Stephen (Brandeis)
Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso (University of Arizona)
Krause, Stefan (Emory University)
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A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level
Comin, Diego (New York University)
Mulani, Sunil (Analysis Group)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Corruption and Crime
Presiding: Heski Bar-Isaac (New York University)

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF POLITICALLY CONNECTED FIRMS
Faccio, Mara (Vanderbilt University)
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The Corruption of Transition
Hochman, Gal (Technion, Israel)
Zilberman, David (University of California, Berkeley)
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Competition in Bureaucracy and Corruption
Drugov, Mikhail (University of Oxford, Nuffield College)
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How to Organize Crime
Bar-Isaac, Heski (New York University)
Baccara, Mariagiovanna (New York University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Matching and Networks
Presiding: Daniela Puzzello (University of Kentucky)

A Strategic Theory of Network Status
Rogers, Brian (California Institute of Technology)

Existence of Nash Networks in One-Way Flow Models
Sarangi, Sudipta (Lousiana State University)
Bravard, Christoph (CREUSET, Jean Monnet University)
Billand, Pascal (CREUSET, Jean Monnet University)
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A Random Matching Theory
Puzzello, Daniela (University of Kentucky)
Camera, G. (Purdue University)
Aliprantis, C. D. (Purdue University)
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Building Social Networks
Gilles, Robert (Virginia Tech)
Sarangi, Sudipta (Louisiana State University)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Firms and Credit
Presiding: Julia Shvets (Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge)

Cash Breeds Success: The Role of Financing Constraints in Patent Races
Schroth, Enrique (HEC-University of Lausanne)
Szalay, Dezso (University of Warwick)
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Credit market competition, collateral and firms' finance
Salas, Vicente (Bank of Spain)
Jimenez, Gabriel (Bank of Spain)
Saurina, Jesus (Bank of Spain)

Microfinance and Missing Markets
Morshed, A. K. M. (Southern Illinois University)
Emran, Shahe (George Washington University)

Courts, firms and allocation of credit
Shvets, Julia (Corpus Christi College, University of Cambridge)


Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: One decade after welfare reform: the changing landscape of public programs and the well-being of families
Presiding: Barbara Wolfe (University of Wisconsin, Madison)

Optimal Design of Public Income Assistance and the Impact of Work Incentives on Low-income Women with Employment Barriers
Frank, Richard (Harvard University and NBER)
McGuire, Thomas (Harvard University)
Meara, Ellen (Harvard University and NBER)

The Impact of Child SSI Enrollment on Household Outcomes: Evidence from the Survey of Income and Program Participation
Duggan, Mark (University of Maryland and NBER)
Kearney, Melissa (Brookings Institution and NBER)
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Changes in the Consumption, Income, and Well-Being of Single Mother Headed Families
Meyer, Bruce (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chic)
Sullivan, James (University of Notre Dame)
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Sunday, January 7, 2007, 1:00 PM

Session: Economic Development and Field Experiments
Presiding: Tomomi Tanaka (California Institute of Technology)

Microfinance Games
Gine, Xavier (World Bank)
Jakiela, Pamela (University of California - Berkeley)
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
Morduch, Jonathan (New York University)

Economics in Matriarchal Societies
Andersen, Steffen (Copenhagen Business School)
Gneezy, Uri (University of Chicago)
List, John (University of Chicago)

Altruism and Resource Sharing in Mexico
Eckel, Catherine (University of Texas at Dallas)
Johnson, Cathleen (CIRANO)
Thomas, Duncan (University of California-Los Angeles)

Poverty, politics, and preferences: Field experiments and survey data from Vietnam
Tanaka, Tomomi (California Institute of Technology)
Camerer, Colin (California Institute of Technology)
Nguyen, Quang (University of Hawaii)



Contents of Current Issues

July 2014 AEJ: Applied

July 2014 AEJ: Macro

July 2014 AER

June 2014 JEL

Spring 2014 JEP

May 2014 AEJ: Policy

May 2014 AEJ: Micro

Virtual Field Journals

In the News:

University of Chicago economics professor, Matthew Gentzkow, who is the AEA's 2014 John Bates Clark Medal recipient, discusses the future of economics, the state of the media ecosphere, and virtues of "data hustle" in this interview from Quartz.

A recent article in The Economist examines higher education endowments and university behaviors including new research presented in a paper from the latest edition of the American Economic Review.

"For economists, the tradition of keeping mum—at least as a national organization—is long and proud. 'The association as such will take no partisan attitude, nor will it commit its members to any position on practical economic questions,' the economic association states on its website. Those policies, says its president, William D. Nordhaus, a professor at Yale University, by email, 'have served it well through hot and cold wars.'"

"Not only do economists vary widely in their opinions of economic policy, he notes, but many have participated in helping shape such policies. Putting forth statements on political issues would be 'unnecessary, polarizing, controversy-stoking, and a distraction from the real and important work of economic research and education,' he says. (Mr. Nordhaus was, of course, speaking for himself and not the association.)"

Read the whole story in the The Chronicle of Higher Education (subscribers only).

From ASSA 2014: The Wall Street Journal reports on the AEA's CSWEP committee's efforts in mentoring early-career female economists and the program's expanding influence on similar programs being developed overseas. Read the full article here.

The Chronicle of Higher Education just published "Cool Head on Global Warming," an in-depth look at the new book by 2014 AEA President, William Nordhaus entitled, "The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty and Economics for a Warming World" (Yale University Press).

The Atlantic Cities provides a thorough examination of Clifford Winston's (Brooking Institution) research, "On The Performance of the U.S. Transportation System: Caution Ahead," from the latest edition of the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL).

Upcoming research by Yang Wang, a health economist at Lafayette College, indicates that some smokers believe age, race, and parental longevity influence their life expectancy more than smoking does. Access the news brief here, or the forthcoming article from the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.

AEA in News Archive

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