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2007 AEA Conference Papers

These are AEA Conference Papers; please see also the full 2007 ASSA Preliminary Program Schedule.

Friday, January 5, 2007

Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Labor Flows, Vacancies and Wages
Presiding: John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland)

The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring
Davis, Steve (University of Chicago)
Faberman, R. Jason (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
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Wage and Employment Dynamics with Mismatch
Shimer, Robert (University of Chicago)

Why Don't Temporary Layoffs Spike during Recessions Anymore?
Groshen, Erica (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Potter, Simon (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Economics of Natural Resources and the Environment
Presiding: TBA ()

Sensitivity of the United States Economy to Weather Variability
Lazo, Jeffrey (National Center for Atmospheric Research)
Larsen, Peter (University of Alaska, Anchorage)
Waldman, Donald (University of Colorado, Boulder)
Harrod, Megan (Stratus Consulting, Inc.)
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Some Resource Economics of Invasive Species
Pitafi, Basharat (Southern Illinois University)
Roumasset, James (University of Hawaii)
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Reducing Environmental Impact: Appropriate Country Strategies Based on Levels of Development
Lowder, Sarah (United Nations)

Pricing and Inventory Control with Two-Sided Uncertainty: Water Distribution in Southern California
Weber, Thomas A. (Stanford University)
Tomkins, Claire (Stanford University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Transparency
Presiding: Marc-Andreas Muendler (University of California, San Diego and CESifo)

The Action Value of Information and the Natural Transparency Limit
Muendler, Marc-Andreas (University of California, San Diego and CESifo)
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Persuasion as a Contest
Skaperdas, Stergios (University of California, Irvine)
Vaidya, Samarth (Deakin University)
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Mass Media: Constrained Information and Heterogenous Public
Kwiek, Maksymilian (University of Southampton)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Model Validation and Model Comparison
Presiding: Michael Keane (Yale University)

Validation of Structural Models
Wolpin, Kenneth (University of Pennsylvania)

Using Data on Expectations to Validate a Structural Model of Investment in Health
Fang, Hanming (Yale University)
Keane, Michael (Yale University)
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
Salm, Martin (Duke University)
Silberman, Dan (University of Michigan)

Bayesian Model Comparison and Validation
Geweke, John (University of Iowa)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Monetary Aggregates and Monetary Policy
Presiding: Samuel Reynard (Swiss National Bank)

Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: Structural Estimates for the United States and the Euro Area
Nelson, Edward (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
Andres, Javier (Universidad de Valencia)
Lopez-Salido, David (Bank of Spain)
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Money and the Great Disinflation
Reynard, Samuel (Swiss National Bank)
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Money and Monetary Policy: The ECB Experience 1999-2006
Pill, Huw (European Central Bank)
Fischer, Bjoern (European Central Bank)
Lenza, Michele (European Central Bank)
Reichlin, Lucrezia (European Central Bank)
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Money Still Makes the World Go Round: The Zonal View
Filardo, Andrew (Bank for International Settlements)
Bordo, Michael (Rutgers University and NBER)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Market and Pre-Market for Graduate Students in Economics
Presiding: Alan Krueger (Princeton University)

Is There an Insider Advantage in Getting Tenure?
Oyer, Paul (Stanford University)
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The Search for Economics Talent: Doctoral Completion and Research Productivity
Grove, Wayne A. (LeMoyne College)
Wu, Stephen (Hamilton College)
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What Does Performance in Graduate School Predict? Graduate Economics Education and Student Outcomes
Athey, Susan (Harvard University)
Katz, Lawrence (Harvard University)
Krueger, Alan (Princeton University)
Levitt, Steven (University of Chicago)
Poterba, James (MIT)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Macroeconomic Implications of Price Stickiness
Presiding: John Leahy (New York University)

Aggregate Dynamics of Inflation and Real Activity with Firm-Level Productivity Shocks
Dotsey, Michael (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
King, Robert G. (Boston University)
Wolman, Alexander L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

Menu Costs, Multi-Product Firms and Aggregate Fluctuations
Midrigan, Virgiliu (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Sticky Information and Sticky Prices
Klenow, Peter (Stanford University)
Willis, Jonathan (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Recent Macroeconomic Stabilization
Presiding: Jeffrey Campbell (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization
Campbell, Jeffrey (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Hercowitz, Zvi (Tel Aviv University)
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The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Primiceri, Giorgio (Northwestern University)
Justiniano, Alejandro (Federal Reserve Board)
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Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility
Leduc, Sylvain (Federal Reserve Board)
Sill, Keith (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Heterogeneity in the Labor Market and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Presiding: Francois GOURIO (Boston University)

The Marginal Worker and the Aggregate Elasticity of Labor Supply.
Gourio, Francois (Boston University)
Noual, Pierre-Alexandre (University of Chicago)
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Measuring Unemployment Composition over the Business Cycle
Pavan, Ronni (University of Rochester)
Barbarino, Alessandro (University of Chicago and Duke University)

Cyclicality in Unemployment and Wages
Chang, Yongsung (Seoul National University)
Bils, Mark (University of Rochester)
Kim, Sun-Bin (Korea University)

Endogenous Labor Market Participation and the Business Cycle
Haefke, Christian (University of Pompeu Fabra)
Reiter, Michael (University of Pompeu Fabra)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Long-Run Growth
Presiding: David Weil (Brown University)

Nonlinearities and Robustness in Growth Regressions
Minier, Jenny (University of Kentucky)
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Competition and Growth: The Key Role of R&D Duplication behind the Inverted U Relationship
Swann, Antonia J. (York University)
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The Coevolution of Economic and Political Development
Huang, Fali (Singapore Management University)
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Public Education Expenditures, Taxation and Growth: Linking Data to Theory
Simpson, Nicole B. (Colgate University)
Blankenau, William (Kansas State University)
Tomljanovich, Marc (Colgate University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Multinational Firms and Development
Presiding: Alexander Monge-Naranjo (Northwestern University)

On Multinational Firms and the Accumulation of Skills
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander (Northwestern University)
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Managerial Skills Acquisition and the Process of Development
Beaudry, Paul (University of British Columbia)
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
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Organizing Offshoring: Middle Managers and Communication Costs
Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban (Princeton University)
Antras, Pol (Harvard University)
Garicano, Luis (Chicago GSB)
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Size, Geography, and Multinational Production
Ramondo, Natalia (University of Chicago)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Capital Accumulation and the Cost of Capital
Presiding: Simon Gilchrist (Boston University)

Legal Institutions, Sectoral Heterogeneity, and Economic Development
Clementi, Gian Luca (New York University)
Castro, Rui (University of Montreal)
Macdonald, Glenn (Washington University, St. Louis)
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Interest Rates and Investment Redux
Natalucci, Fabio (Federal Reserve Board)
Gilchrist, Simon (Boston University)
Zakrajsek, Egon (Federal Reserve Board)

Firm Market Value and Investment: The Role of Firm Market Power and Different Types of Adjustment Costs
Bayraktar, Nihal (Pennsylvania State University, Harrisburg and World Bank)
Sakellaris, Plutarchos (Athens University of Economics and Business and IMOP)
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Panel Cointegration Estimates of the Effect of Interest Rates, Capital Goods Prices, and Taxes on the Capital Stock
Voia, Marcel-Cristian (Carleton University)
Schaller, Huntley (Carleton University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Constitutional Approaches to Explaining Trade Policy
Presiding: Gerald Willmann (University of Kiel)

Optimal Agenda-Setter Timing
Polborn, Mattias (University of Illinois)
Willmann, Gerald (University of Kiel)
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Oranges and Steel - A Swing-State Theory of Trade Protection in the Electoral College
Muuls, Mirabelle (London School of Economics)
Petropoulou, Dimitra (London School of Economics)
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Electoral Rules and Trade Protection
Roelfsema, Hein (University of Utrecht)
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Why Legislators are Protectionists: The Role of Majoritarian Voting in Setting Tariffs
Willmann, Gerald (University of Kiel)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Markets, Information, and Strategic Behavior
Presiding: Bruce Mizrach (Rutgers University)

EBay's Proxy System: A License to Shill
Engelberg, Joseph (Northwestern University)
Williams, Jared (Northwestern University)
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Is Talk Cheap Online? Strategic Interaction in A Stock Trading Chat Room
Mizrach, Bruce (Rutgers University)
Lu, Jie (Rutgers University)
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Sniping and Squatting in Auction Markets
Hossain, Tanjim (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
Ely, Jeffrey (Northwestern University)
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The Social Life of Financial Bubbles
Levine, Sheen S. (Singapore Management University)
Zajac, Edward J. (Northwestern University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Organizational Form
Presiding: Julie Wulf (University of Pennsylvania)

Firms, Nonprofits, and Cooperatives: A Theory of Organizational Choice
Herbst, Patrick (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
Prufer, Jens (Goethe University, Frankfurt)
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Renegotiation of Defense Procurement Contracts
Oudot, Jean-Michel (Centre ATOM, University Paris I Pantheon, Sorbonne)
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Tradeoffs in Staying Close: Corporate Decision-Making and Geographic Dispersion
Wulf, Julie (University of Pennsylvania)
Landier, Augustin (New York University)
Nair, Vinay (University of Pennsylvania)
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Firm Boundaries in the New Economy: Theory and Evidence
Subramanian, Krishnamurthy (Emory University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Income Redistribution: Causes and Consequences
Presiding: Felix Oberholzer-Gee (Harvard University)

Justice and Redistribution
Fong, Christina (Carnegie Mellon University)
Oberholzer-Gee, Felix (Harvard University)

The anatomy of the demand for redistribution in Europe: An investigation of the European Social Survey
Senik, Claudia (Universite Paris-IV Sorbonne)
Van der Straeten, Karine (CNRS and Ecole Polytechnique Paris)

Redistribution and Social Identity in the Lab
Klor, Esteban F. (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
Shayo, Moses (The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Natural Field Experiments in Development Economics
Presiding: Rohini Pande (Yale University)

Experimental Evidence on Long-run Impacts of Child Health in Kenya
Miguel, Edward (University of California, Berkeley)
Baird, Sarah (University of California, Berkeley)
Kremer, Michael (Harvard University)

Derationing: Using Randomized Credit Supply Decisions to Measure Microfinance Impacts
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth University)

Monitoring Corruption: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia
Olken, Benjamin (Harvard University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Capital Market Frictions
Presiding: Lasse Heje Pedersen (New York University)

Market Maker Inventories and Stock Prices
Seasholes, Mark (University of California, Berkeley)
Hendershott, Terrence (University of California, Berkeley)

Slow Moving Capital
Pedersen, Lasse Heje (New York University)
Mitchell, Mark (CNH Partners)
Pulvino, Pulvino (CNH Partners)
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Over-the-Counter Search Frictions: A Case Study of the Federal Funds Market
Ashcraft, Adam (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Duffie, Darrell (Stanford University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Interrelationship between Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills
Presiding: Gary S. Becker (University of Chicago)

The Evolution of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills over the Life Cycle of the Child
Cunha, Flavio (University of Chicago)
Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)

The Role of Noncognitive Skills in Explaining Cognitive Test Scores
Borghans, Lex (Maastricht University)
ter Weel, Bas (Maastricht University)
Meijers, Huub (Maastricht University)
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Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making
Frederick, Shane (MIT)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Behavioral Game Theory
Presiding: Joseph Tao-yi Wang (California Institute of Technology)

Pinocchio's Pupil: Using Eyetracking and Pupil Dilation to Understand Truth-telling and Deception in Games
Wang, Joseph Tao-yi (California Institute of Technology)
Spezio, Michael (California Institute of Technology)
Camerer, Colin F. (California Institute of Technology)
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Studying Cognition by Monitoring Information Search in Guessing Games
Costa-Gomes, Miguel A. (University of York)
Crawford, Vincent P. (University of California, San Diego)
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Neural Activity during Bargaining with Private Information
Bhatt, Meghana (California Institute of Technology)
Camerer, Colin F. (California Institute of Technology)
Lohrenz, Terry (Baylor Medical School)
Montague, Read (Baylor Medical School)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Intrinsic Motivation, Organization and Institutions
Presiding: Paul Grout (University of Bristol)

Organization Design with Motivated Agents
Besley, Timothy (London School of Economics)
Ghatak, Maitreesh (London School of Economics)

Norms and Institutional Change
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
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Why Is Donated Labor in Organizations So Delicate?
Grout, Paul (University of Bristol)
Schnedler, Wendelin (University of Heidelberg)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Asymmetric Information and Moral Hazard in Insurance Markets
Presiding: Hanming Fang (Yale University)

Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and Health Expenditures: A Semiparametric Analysis
Bajari, Patrick (University of Minnesota)
Hong, Han (Duke University)
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
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Testing for Adverse Selection with "Unused Observables"
Finkelstein, Amy (MIT)
Poterba, James (MIT)
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Asymmetric Information and Moral Hazard in Insurance Markets
Einav, Liran (Stanford University)
Finkelstein, Amy (MIT)
Schrimpf, Paul (Stanford University)
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Sources of Advantageous Selection: Evidence from the Medigap Insurance Market
Fang, Hanming (Yale University)
Keane, Michael (Yale University)
Silverman, Dan (University of Michigan)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Capital Flows and Productivity
Presiding: Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Houston and NBER)

Why Are Capital Flows between Regions So Different from Capital Flows between Countries? Evidence from Europe
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (University of Houston and NBER)
Ekinci, Mehmet (University of Rochester)
Sorensen, Bent (University of Houston)
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Does Globalization Contribute to Productivity Growth?
Kose, Ayhan (IMF)
Prasad, Eswar (IMF)
Terrones, Marco (IMF)

Capital Flows to Developing Countries: the Allocation Puzzle
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (University of California at Berkeley and NBER)
Jeanne, Olivier (IMF)
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Unexploited Gains from International Diversification
Didier, Tatiana (MIT)
Rigobon, Roberto (MIT)
Schmukler, Sergio (World Bank)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Household Finance: Cognition and Decision Making
Presiding: Christopher Snyder (Dartmouth College)

Fuzzy Math and Red Ink: Payment/Interest Bias and Household Finance
Stango, Victor (Tuck School of Business (Dartmouth))
Zinman, Jonathan (Dartmouth College)

Who is "Behavioral"? Cognitive Ability and Anomalous Preferences
Shapiro, Jesse (University of Chicago)
Benjamin, Daniel (Harvard University)
Brown, Sebastian A. (Harvard University)
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Financial Illiteracy and Planning: Implications for Retirement Well-Being
Lusardi, Annamaria (Dartmouth College)
Mitchell, Olivia (The Wharton School (Penn))
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Structural Change and the Decline in Manufacturing
Presiding: Francisco Buera (Northwestern University)

Capital Deepening and Non-Balanced Economic Growth
Acemoglu, Daron (MIT)
Guerrieri, Veronica (MIT)
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The Rise of the Service Economy
Buera, Francisco (Northwestern University)
Kaboski, Joseph (Ohio State University)
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Productivity-Based Theory of Manufacturing Employment Declines: A Global Perspective
Matsuyama, Kiminori (Northwestern University)
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Trends in Hours and Economic Growth
Ngai, Rachel (London School of Economics)
Pissarides, Christopher (London School of Economics)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Productivity-Enhancing Reallocation: Comparative International Evidence
Presiding: John Earle (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Central European University)

Cross Country Differences in Productivity: The Role of Allocative Efficiency
Bartelsman, Eric (Free University of Amsterdam)
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
Scarpetta, Stefano (World Bank)
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Assessing the Impact of the Investment Climate on Productivity Using Firm-Level Data: Methodology and the Cases of Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua
Escribano, Alvaro (Universidad Carlos III Madrid)
Guasch, J. Luis (World Bank)
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The Impact of State Aid for Restructuring on the Allocation of Resources
Schweiger, Helena (University of Maryland)
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Employment Reallocation and Productivity Growth: A Comparative International Study
Brown, J. David (Heriot-Watt University)
Earle, John (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Central European University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Wars, Finance, and War Finance
Presiding: Shaun Vahey (Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank)

The Net Worth of the U.S. National Government, 1784-1802
Grubb, Farley (University of Delaware)
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The Great Financial Crisis of 1914: What Can We Learn from Aldrich-Vreeland Emergency Currency?
Silber, William (New York University)
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The McKenna Rule and U.K. World War I Finance
Vahey, Shaun (Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Norges Bank)
Nason, Jim (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
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How Occupied France Financed Its Own Exploitation in World War II
White, Eugene (Rutgers University)
Occhino, Filippo (Rutgers University)
Oosterlinck, Kim (Solvay Business School)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: New Approaches to International Trade
Presiding: Andrew Atkeson (University of California, Los Angeles)

New Configurations of Global Production and Trade: Implications of China's Emergence
Eaton, Jonathan (New York University)
Dekle, Robert (University of Southern California)
Kortum, Samuel (University of Minnesota)

Trade Flow Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms
Bilbie, Florin (Oxford University)
Ghironi, Fabio (Boston College)
Melitz, Marc (Harvard University)

Pricing to Market with Heterogeneous Firms
Atkeson, Andrew (University of California, Los Angeles)
Burstein, Ariel (University of California, Los Angeles)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: K-12 Economic and Financial Literacy Education
Presiding: Elizabeth Webbink (National Council on Economic Education)

Field Testing Novel Digital Learning Modules for Economics in the Third Millennium
Hodgin, Robert F. (University of Houston, Clear Lake)
Cobb, Steven L. (University of North Texas)
Davila, Alberto (University of Texas, Pan American)

Testing the Economic Literacy of K-12 Teachers: A Baseline Analysis for Mississippi
Grimes, Paul W. (Mississippi State University)
Millea, Meghan (Mississippi State University)
Thomas, M. Kathleen (Mississippi State University)
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Does Professional Learning for High School Economics Teachers Improve Student Achievement?
Swinton, John R. (Georgia College and State University)
Scafidi, Jr., Benjamin P. (Georgia State University)
De Berry, Thomas W. (North Georgia College and State University)
Woodard, Howard C. (Georgia College and State University)
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Assessing the Effectiveness of Financial Fitness for Life in Eastern Kentucky
Harter, Cynthia L. (Eastern Kentucky University)
Harter, John F. R. (Eastern Kentucky University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: 75th Anniversary of Hicks' Introduction of the Elasticity of Substitution between Labor and Capital
Presiding: Robert Chirinko (Emory University)

The Substitution Elasticity, Growth Theory, and the Low-Pass Filter Panel Model
Chirinko, Robert (Emory University)
Mallick, Debdulal (Emory University)
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International Differences in Aggregate Factor Substitution and Factor Augmenting Technical Progress
Klump, Rainer (Frankfurt University)
McAdam, Peter (European Central Bank)
Willman, Alpo (European Central Bank)

The Elasticity of Substitution: Evidence from a U.K. Firm-Level Data Set
Price, Simon (Bank of England)
Barnes, Sebastian (OECD)
Sebastia-Barriel, Maria (Bank of England)
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The Role of the Elasticity of Substitution in Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Test of the de la Grandville Hypothesis
Mallick, Debdulal (Emory University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Parties and Politicians
Presiding: Antonio Merlo (University of Pennsylvania)

On the Benefits of Party Competition
Bernhardt, Dan (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
Campuzano, Larissa (Mathematica Policy Research)
Squintani, Francesco (University College London)
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Political Dynasties
Dal Bo, Ernesto (University of California, Berkeley)
Dal Bo, Pedro (Brown University)
Snyder, Jason (Northwestern University)
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Political Careers or Career Politicians?
Mattozzi, Andrea (California Institute of Technology)
Merlo, Antonio (University of Pennsylvania)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Issues in Family/Household Decision Making
Presiding: Gail Hoyt (University of Kentucky)

The Effect of Child Gender on Parent's Labor Supply: An Examination of Natives, Immigrants, and Their Children
Pabilonia, Sabrina (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Ward-Batts, Jennifer (Claremont McKenna College)
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Marriage Delay and Private Saving
Schmidt, Lucie (Williams College)
Sevak, Purvi (Hunter College)

Adoption Subsidies and Adoption Outcomes: An Instrumental Variables Approach
Buckles, Kasey (University of Notre Dame)
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Earnings and Spousal Mobility: Power Couples and Trailing Spouses
McKinnish, Terra (University of Colorado, Boulder)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Field Experiments on Charitable Giving
Presiding: David Reiley (University of Arizona)

Does Price Matter in Charitable Giving?
Karlan, Dean (Yale University)
List, John (University of Chicago)

Charitable Giving to a University: Do Subsidies Increase Donations?
Eckel, Catherine (University of Texas at Dallas)
Grossman, Philip (St. Cloud State University)

Motivations for Giving: Field and Survey Data
Croson, Rachel (University of Pennsylvania)
Shang, Jen (Indiana University)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Contracts and Fairness
Presiding: Ulrike Malmendier (Stanford University)

Adding a Stick to the Carrot? The Interaction of Bonuses and Fines
Fehr, Ernst (University of Zurich)
Schmidt, Klaus (University of Munich)
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Incomplete Contracts and Ownership: Some New Thoughts
Hart, Oliver (Harvard University)
Moore, John Hardman (University of Edinburgh)
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Can Contract Theory Explain Social Preferences?
MacLeod, W. Bentley (Columbia University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The relationship between Education and Well-being
Presiding: Joshua Angrist (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Understanding Health Differences by Education
Lleras-Muney, Adriana (Princeton University)
Cutler, David (Harvard University)
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How Does College Change Women's Lives?
Dynarski, Susan (Harvard University)

Wealth and Happiness from Compulsory Schooling: Recent Evidence from Raising the School Leaving age to 18 in the United States
Oreopoulos, Phillip (University of Toronto)

The Effect of Maternal Education on Child Health
Lillard, Dean (Cornell University)
Ueyama, Maki (Cornell University)
Simon, Kosali (Cornell University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: What Should Development Economists Know?
Presiding: Martin Feldstein (Harvard University and NBER)

Can We Identify the Basic Tools Needed for Policy Analysis in Developing Countries?
Harberger, Arnold (University of California, Los Angeles)

Avoiding the See-Saws of Development Policy
Johnson, Simon (International Monetary Fund)

Understanding Context and Interlinkages in Development Policy Formulation and Implementation".
Krueger, Anne (International Monetary Fund)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Real Estate Markets and Performance
Presiding: Karl E. Case (Wellesley College)

Up in ARMS: The Interplay of Mortgage and Housing Markets
Nothaft, Frank (Freddie Mac)
Cutts, Amy Crews (Freddie Mac)

How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Sticky Prices
Case, Karl (Wellesley College)
Quigley, John (University of California, Berkeley)
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Commercial Real Estate Return Cycles: Do Capital Flows Matter?
Fisher, Jeffrey D. (Indiana University)
Ling, David C. (University of Florida)
Naranjo, Andy (University of Florida)
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Forward Markets in Housing Prices: What Have We Learned?
Sanders, Anthony (Ohio State University)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Economics of Medical Care "Report Cards"
Presiding: Donald E. Yett (University of Southern California)

How Much Performance Can P4P Buy?
Helmchen, Lorens (University of Illinois, Chicago)
Losasso, Anthony T. (University of Illinois, Chicago)

Do Report Cards Tell Consumers Anything They Don't Already Know?
Dafny, Leemore (Northwestern University)
Dranove, David (Northwestern University)

The Effect of a Tiered Hospital Benefit and Safety Incentive on Hospital Admissions: Evidence from Stated and Revealed Preference Data
Scanlon, Dennis (Pennsylvania State University)
Christianson, Jon (University of Minnesota)
Lindrooth, Richard (Medical University of South Carolina)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 12:30 PM

Session: Joint Luncheon
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Title to come
Bernanke, Ben (Federal Reserve Board)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Residential Mortgage Economics
Presiding: Yongheng Deng (University of Southern California)

Long-Range Dependence in Mortgage Termination
Li, Jingyang (Countrywide Finance)
Thurston, Paul (Countrywide Finance)

Interest Rates and Consumer Choice in the Residential Mortgage Market
Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
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Irrational Borrowers and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages
Deng, Yongheng (University of Southern California)
Quigley, John M. (University of California, Berkeley)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Personnel Economics Studies Using Personnel Data
Presiding: Edward Lazear (Stanford University)

Doing the Right Thing? Does Fair Share Capitalism Improve Firm Performance: Evidence for the U.K.
Bryson, Alex (Harvard University and NBER)
Freeman, Richard (Harvard University and NBER)
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Incentives and Favoritism in the Workplace: Evidence from Personnel Data
Bandiera, Oriana (London School of Economics)
Barankay, Iwan (University of Essex)
Rasul, Imran (University College London)
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The Microeconomic Implications of Input Market Regulations: Cross-Country Evidence from Within the Firm
Lafontaine, Francine (University of Michigan)
Sivadasan, Jagadeesh (University of Michigan)
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Talent Sorting and Skill Complementarity Among Software Engineers
Haltiwanger, John (University of Maryland)
Oyer, Paul (Stanford University)
Shaw, Kathryn (Stanford University)
Andersson, Fredrik (Cornell University)
Freedman, Matthew (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Behavioral Welfare Economics
Presiding: B. Douglas Bernheim (Stanford University)

Title to be announced
Bernheim, B. Douglas (Stanford University)

Title to be announced
Gul, Faruk (Princeton University)
Pesendorfer, Wolfgang (Princeton University)

Title to be announced
Rabin, Matthew (University of California, Berkeley)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Developments in Dynamic Mechanism Design
Presiding: Stephen Morris (Princeton University)

Ascending Auctions: Robustness and Uniqueness
Morris, Stephen (Princeton University)
Bergemann, Dirk (Yale University)

Incentives and Communication Costs
Segal, Ilya (Stanford University)

On Quitting Rights in Mechanism Design
Jehiel, Philippe (University College London)
Compte, Olivier (Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Evaluation and Time Allocations in Teaching Economics
Presiding: Barry R. Chiswick (University of Illinois, Chicago)

Evaluating Methods for Evaluating Instruction: The Case of Higher Education
Weinberg, Bruce (Ohio State University)
Fleisher, Belton (Ohio State University)
Hashimoto, Masanori (Ohio State University)
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Time Allocations and Reward Structures for Academic Economists from 1995-2005: Evidence from Three National Surveys
Harter, Cynthia (Eastern Kentucky University)
Watts, Michael (Purdue University)
Becker, William (Indiana University)
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Time Allocations to Undergraduate and Graduate Teaching in Economics and Other Disciplines
Allgood, Sam (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
Walstad, William (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
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The Long-Term Effects of Economics Coursework on College Graduates' Behaviors and Outcomes in the Labor Market
Allgood, Sam (University of Nebraska, Lincoln)
Bosshardt, William (Florida Atlantic University)
van der Klaauw, Wilbert (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)
Watts, Michael (Purdue University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Consumption Inequality: Evidence and Interpretation
Presiding: Richard Blundell (University College London and IFS)

The evolution of consumption and wage inequality: evidence and implications for consumption smoothing.
Attanasio, Orazio (University College London and IFS)
Battistin, Erich (Universita di Padova and IFS)
Padula, Mario (Universita di Salerno)

Evaluating Asset Pricing Models with Limited Commitment using Household Consumption Data
Krueger, Dirk (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Perri, Fabrizio (New York University)
Lustig, Hanno (UCLA)
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The transmission of income inequality into consumption inequality
Blundell, Richard (University College London)
Preston, Ian (University College London)
Pistaferri, Luigi (Stanford University)
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Labor Supply and Consumption with Imperfect Insurance: An Analytical Framework
Heathcote, Jonathan (Georgetown University)
Storesletten, Kjetil (University of Oslo)
Violante, Giovanni Luca (New York University)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Habit Persistence and the Macroeconomy
Presiding: Martin Uribe (Duke University)

Habit Persistence: Evidence from Complementary Data Sources
Dynan, Karen E. (Federal Reserve Board)
Ravina, Enrichetta (New York University)

Pricing to Habits and the Law of One Price
Ravn, Morten (European University Institute)
Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie (Duke University)
Uribe, Martin (Duke University)
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Explaining Asset Prices with Habit Persistence and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model
Uhlig, Harald (Humboldt Universitaet)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Beliefs in the Utility Function
Presiding: Andrew Caplin (New York University)

The Planning Fallacy and Deadlines
Brunnermeier, Markus (Princeton University)
Parker, Jonathan (Princeton University)
Papakonstantinou, Filippos (Princeton University)

Paying for Confidence: An Experimental Study of Preferences over Beliefs
Eliaz, Kfir (New York University)
Schotter, Andrew (New York University)

Dynamic Psychological Games
Battigalli, Pierpaolo (Bocconi University)
Dufwenberg, Martin (University of Arizona)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Empirical Industrial Organization
Presiding: Patrick Bajari (University of Minnesota)

Identification and Estimation of Bidders' Risk Aversion in First-Price Auctions
Vuong, Quang (Pennsylvania State University)
Perrigne, Isabelle (Pennsylvania State University)
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An Estimable Dynamic Model of Entry, Exit and Growth in Oligopoly Retail Markets
Aguirregabiria, Victor (University of Toronto)
Mira, Pedro (CEMFI)
Roman, Hernan (Boston University)
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Bounding Revenue Comparisons across Multi-Unit Auction Formats under ε-Best Response
McAdams, David (MIT)
Paarsch, Harry J. (University of Iowa)
Chapman, James (University of Iowa)
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Differentiated Product Demand Estimation with Rank Data
Bajari, Patrick (University of Minnesota)
Fox, Jeremy (University of Chicago)
Ryan, Stephen (MIT)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Health of the Young and the Old in the Past and the Present
Presiding: Robert Fogel (University of Chicago)

Race and Health in the Past: Infection and Arteriosclerosis
Costa, Dora (MIT)
Helmchen, Lorens (University of Illinois -- Chicago)
Wilson, Sven (Brigham Young University)
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Survival and the Changing Role of Chronic Diseases in the 20th Century
Sloan, Frank (Duke University)
Salm, Martin (University of Mannheim)
Belsky, Dan (Duke University)
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Postpartum Hospital Stay and the Outcomes of Mothers and their Newborns
Evans, William (University of Maryland)
Wei, Heng (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Determinants of Professional Success
Presiding: Rachel Croson (University of Pennsylvania)

Can Social Norms Explain Gender Differences in Educational Aspirations?
Kleinjans, Kristin J. (University of Aarhus and RAND)
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The Earnings of Female Faculty: A Story of Field and Gender?
Garvey, Deborah (Santa Clara University)
Lopez, Mark Hugo (University of Maryland)
Mora, Marie (University of Texas, Pan American)

Is Economics Becoming Gender Neutral?
Sacerdote, Bruce (Dartmouth College)
Durell, Alan (Harvard University)
Williams, Heidi (Harvard University)
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Women Helping Women, Men Helping Men? Same-Gender Mentoring, Initial Job Placements, and Early Career Publishing Success for Economics Ph.D.s
Hilmer, Michael (San Diego State University)
Hilmer, Christina (San Diego State University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Information Frictions and Aggregate Fluctuations
Presiding: Chris Edmond (NYU)

Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition
Hellwig, Christian (University of California, Los Angeles)
Veldkamp, Laura (New York University)

Income dispersion, market efficiency and business cycles
Edmond, Chris (NYU Stern)
Veldkamp, Laura (NYU Stern)
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Liquidity and Spending Dynamics
Guerrieri, Veronica (MIT)
Lorenzoni, Guido (MIT)
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Learning by Matching
Amador, Manuel (Stanford GSB)
Weill, Pierre-Olivier (NYU Stern)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Emerging Markets Finance in the Global Economy
Presiding: Simon Johnson (MIT)

Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets
Broner, Fernando (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Martin, Alberto (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Ventura, Jaume (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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International Financial Integration and Entrepreneurial Firms Dynamics
Alfaro, Laura (Harvard Business School)
Charlton, Andrew (London School of Economics)
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The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization
Faria, Andre (International Monetary Fund)
Mauro, Paolo (International Monetary Fund)
Minnoni, Martin (Banco Hipotecario (Buenos Aires, Argentina))
Zaklan, Aleksandar (Georgetown University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Political Economy of Institutional Change
Presiding: Sanjay Jain (University of Virginia)

Hit or Miss? The Effect of Assassinations on Political Institutions and War
Jones, Benjamin (Northwestern University)
Olken, Benjamin (Harvard University)
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The Long Run Impact of Bombing in Vietnam
Miguel, Edward (University of California at Berkeley)
Roland, Gerard (University of California at Berkeley)

Bridging the Divide: On Leadership and Institutional Change
Majumdar, Sumon (Queens University)
Mukand, Sharun (Tufts University)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Networked Interactions
Presiding: Luis Rayo (University of Chicago)

On the Network Structure of Communication in Organizations
Calvo-Armengol, Antoni (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
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Diffusion of Behavior and Equilibrium Properties in Network Games
Jackson, Matthew O. (Stanford University)
Yariv, Leeat (California Institute of Technology)
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Financial Networks
Gale, Douglas (New York University)
Kariv, Shachar (University of California, Berkeley)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Economics of National Security
Presiding: Martin Feldstein (Harvard Univeristy)

Economic Incentives and Foreign Insurgents in Iraq
Krueger, Alan (Princeton University)
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Military Deployments and Children's Academic Achievement: Evidence from Department of Defense Education Activity Schools
Engel, Rozlyn (U.S. Military Academy (West Point))
Gallagher, Luke B. ()
Lyle, David S. ()
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The economic and ideological determinants of military recruiting
DellaVigna, Stefano (Univ of California at Berkeley)
Kaplan, Ethan (Univ of California at Berkeley)

Are Regional Trade Agreements Signed to Deter Military Conflicts?
Martin, Phiilippe (University of PAris)
Mayer, Thierry (University of Paris)
Thoenig, Mathias (University of Geneva)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Social Insurance Programs: Good for Workers? Good for the Labor Market?
Presiding: Raj Chetty (University of California, Berkeley)

Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Approach
Black, Dan (Syracuse University)
Galdo, Jose (McMaster University)
Smith, Jeff (University of Michigan)
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The Effects of Extended Benefits on Unemployment Duration and Early Retirement: A Regression Discontinuity Approach
Lalive, Rafael (University of Lausanne)

Unemployment Benefits, Income Effects, and Search Outcomes: Evidence from a Discontinuity in the Austrian Severance Pay System
Card, David (University of California, Berkeley)
Chetty, Raj (University of California, Berkeley)
Weber, Andrea (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Distinguishing Income from Substitution Effects in Disability Insurance
Autor, David (MIT)
Duggan, Mark (University of Maryland)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: The Economics of "Self-Discovery": Export Specialization, Productivity and Growth
Presiding: Dani Rodrik (Harvard University)

What You Export Matters
Hwang, Jason (Harvard University)
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)
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The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: The Impact of the Structure of the Product Space
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Klinger, Bailey (Harvard University)
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Good Politics, Good Policies, Low Growth: The Puzzle of South Africa
Hausmann, Ricardo (Harvard University)
Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)

Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Financial Econometrics
Presiding: Donald Lien (University of Texas, San Antonio)

A Semiparametric Framework for Modeling and Forecasting Jumps and Volatility in Speculative Prices
Anderson, Torben (Northwestern University)
Bollerslev, Tim (Duke University)
Huang, Xing (Duke University)

Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises
Duan, Jin-Chuan (University of Toronto)
Fulop, Andras (ESSEC Paris)
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Panel Cointegration with Global Stochastic Trends
Bai, Jushan (University of Michigan)
Kao, Chihwa (Syracuse University)
Ng, Serena (University of Michigan)

Estimating Time-Varying Hedge Ratios with A Range-Based Multivariate Volatility Model
Chou, Ray (Insititute of Economics, Academia Sinica)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: ODE Invited Graduate Student Papers
Presiding: Robert S. Rycroft (University of Mary Washington)

Labor Supply Responses to Government Provided Health Insurance: Evidence from Kidney Transplant Patients
Page, Timothy F. (University of New Hampshire)
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Is Financial Development Really Beneficial for Latin American Countries?
Raynal, Luisa Blanco (University of Oklahoma)
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Juanita's Money Order: Income Effects on Human Capital Investment in Mexico
Suarez Serrato, Juan Carlos (University of California, Berkeley)
Avallaneda, Zenide (Federal Reserve Board)
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Labor Supply, Self-Insurance and Knightian Uncertainty
Liu, Hening (Northern Illinois University)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 2:30 PM

Session: Spatial Modeling, Discrete Choices and the Costs and Benefits of Transportation Network Improvements
Presiding: Keith Hofseth (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

Spatial Modeling in Transportation II: Railroad Pricing, Alternative Markets, and Capacity Constraints
Anderson, Simon (University of Virginia)
Wilson, Wesley W. (University of Oregon)
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Estimation on Stated-Preference Experiments Constructed from Revealed-Preference Choices
Train, Kenneth (University of California - Berkeley)
Wilson, Wesley (University of Oregon)
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International Trade, Transportation Networks, and Port Choice
Blonigen, Bruce (University of Oregon)
Wilson, Wesley W. (University of Oregon)
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Congestion at Locks on Inland Waterways: An Experimental Testbed of a Policy of Tradable Priority Permits for Lock Access
Cook, Joseph (National Economic Research Associates)
Plott, Charles (California Institute of Technology)
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Friday, January 5, 2007, 4:45 PM

Session: Richard T. Ely Lecture
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Beliefs, Doubts and Learning: The Valuation of Macroeconomic Risk
Hansen, Lars (University of Chicago)

Saturday, January 6, 2007

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: The Governance of Central Banks: Advances and Challenges
Presiding: Renee Adams (Stockholm School of Economics)

Governing the Governors:A Clinical Study of Central Banks
Frisell, Lars (Sveriges Riksbank)
Roszbach, Kasper (Sveriges Riksbank)
Spagnolo, Giancarlo (Stockholm School of Economics)
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Does Capital Hurt the Value of the Bank?
Mehran, Hamid (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University in St. Louis)
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The Governance of Federal Reserve Bank Boards
Adams, Renee (Stockholm School of Economics)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Medical Innovation and the Social Value of Health Progress
Presiding: Robert H. Topel (University of Chicago)

Integrated Insurance Design in the Presence of Multiple Medical Technologies
Philipson, Tomas (University of Chicago)
Goldman, Dana (RAND Corporation)
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Social Value and the Speed of Innovation
Murphy, Kevin M. (University of Chicago)
Topel, Robert H. (University of Chicago)

The Impact of New Drugs on U.S. Longevity and Medical Expenditure, 1990-2003
Lichtenberg, Frank R. (Columbia University)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Financial Security in Retirement: How Will Baby Boomers Fare?
Presiding: Olivia Mitchell (University of Pennsylvania)

Financial Security in Retirement in Face of Rising Health Care Costs
Hurd, Michael (Rand)
Rohwedder, Susann (Rand)

Transitioning to Individual Accounts: Consequences for Baby Boomers Savings
Boersch-Supan, Axel (MEA: Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics)

Baby Boomer Retirement Security: The Roles of Planning, Financial Literacy, and Housing Wealth
Lusardi, Annamaria (Dartmouth College)
Mitchell, Olivia (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)
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Your Money or Your Life: Managing Health, Managing Money
Grafova, Irina B. (University of Medicine & Dentistry of New Jersey)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Behavioral Contracting
Presiding: Anjan Thakor (Washington University, St. Louis)

Disagreement and Autonomy: Incentive Contracting with Psychological Ownership and Objective Ownership
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University, St. Louis)
Song, Fenghua (Washington University in St. Louis)
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On Measuring Compassion in Social Preferences: Do Gender, Price of Giving, or Inequality Matter?
Kamas, Linda (Santa Clara University)
Freston, Anne (Haverford College)
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Vengeance
Mocan, Naci (University of Colorado, Denver)

Optimal Contracts When Agents Envy Each Other
Goel, Anand (DePaul University)
Thakor, Anjan (Washington University in St. Louis)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Peer Effects and Social Interactions
Presiding: Michael Keane (Yale University)

Do Students Want to Succeed? Peer group choice, social influence, and undergraduate performance
Foster, Jennifer (University of South Australia)
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Endogenous Peer Effects in School Participation
Bobonis, Gustavo (University of Toronto)
Finan, Frederico (University of California, Berkeley)
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Evaluating Economic and Social Interventions that Increase College Enrollment: Academic Standards, Social Status, and the Quest for Identity
Fletcher, Jason (Yale University)
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Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Social Interactions: with an Application to a Signaling Game Experiment
Liu, Xiaodong (Ohio State University)
Kagel, John (Ohio State University)
Lee, Lung-Fei (Ohio State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Understanding the Gender Gap in Wages
Presiding: Francine Blau (Cornell University)

The Role of Labor market Intermittency in Explaining Gender Wage Differentials
Hotchkiss, Julie L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Georgia State University)
Pitts, M. Melinda (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
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A Cohort Analysis of the Gender Wage Gap
Moore, Quinn (Mathematica Policy Research)
Shierholz, Heidi (University of Toronto)

The Impact of managed Care on the Gender Earnings Gap Among Physicians
Sasser, Alicia (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Reaching Equilibrium in the Market for Obstetricians and Gynecologists
Reyes, Jessica Wolpaw (Amherst College)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates
Presiding: Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank)

Term Structure Transmission of Monetary Policy
Kozicki, Sharon (Bank of Canada)
Tinsley, Peter A (George Washington University)
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Bond Supply, Expectations, and the Yield Curve
Piazzesi, Monika (University of Chicago)
Schneider, Martin (New York University)

Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in the Term Premium
Rudebusch, Glenn D. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Sack, Brian P. (Macroeconomic Advisers)
Swanson, Eric T. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
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Imperfect Policy Credibility, Term Premia and Expectations Puzzles
Hordahl, Peter (European Central Bank)
Tristani, Oreste (European Central Bank)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Decision Theory: New Methods, New Insights
Presiding: Paul Glimcher (New York University)

Measuring Discounted Value Using Brain Imaging
Glimcher, Paul W. (New York University)
Louie, Kenway (MIT)
Kable, Joseph (New York University)

Dopamine and Choice
Caplin, Andrew (New York University)
Dean, Mark (New York University)
Dewitt, Eric (New York University)
Rutledge, Robb (New York University)

Recovering Preferences from Choices in the Laboratory
Gale, Douglas (New York University)
Fisman, Raymond (Columbia University)
Kariv, Shachar (University of California, Berkeley)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Financial Frictions and Aggregate Fluctuations
Presiding: Lawrence Christiano (Northwestern University)

Financial Factors in Business Cycles
Christiano, Lawrence (Northwestern University)
Motto, Roberto (European Central Bank)
Rostagno, Massimo (European Central Bank)

Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: The Role of Foreign-Denominated Debt
Gilchrist, Simon (Boston University)
Sim, Jae (Boston University)

Firm-Level Evidence on the Cylical Behavior of Credit Market Frictions
Levin, Andrew (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Natalucci, Fabio (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Zakrajsek, Egon (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Bank finance vs bond finance: implications for monetary policy
de Fiore, Fiorella (European Central Bank)
Uhlig, Harald (Humboldt University)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Durable Goods
Presiding: Christopher House (University of Michigan)

Durable Goods and Conformity
House, Christopher (University of Michigan)
Ozdenoren, Emre (University of Michigan)
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A Model of Exchange Where Beauty Is in the Eye of the Beholder
Smith, Lones (University of Michigan)
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Non-Linear Pricing of Storable Goods
Hendel, Igal (Northwestern University)
Lizzeri, Alessandro (New York University)

Obsolescence of Durable Goods and Optimal Consumption
Stacchetti, Ennio (New York University)
Stolyarov, Dmitriy (University of Michigan)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: R&D and Business Cycles
Presiding: Gadi Barlevy (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Read All About It? What Happens after a Technology Shock
Alexopoulos, Michelle (University of Toronto)
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International Medium Term Business Cycles
Comin, Diego (New York University)

Intrinsic Business Cycles with Pro-cyclical R&D
Francois, Patrick (University of British Columbia)
Lloyd-Ellis, Huw (Queen's University)
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On the Cyclicality of Research and Development
Barlevy, Gadi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Interactive Workshops on Teaching Economics
Presiding: Michael K. Salemi (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Using Cooperative Learning to Improve Student Understanding of Exam Evaluation
Caviglia-Harris, Jill L. (Salisbury University)
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A Classroom Experiment on Exchange Rate Determination
Rebelein, Robert (Vassar College)
Simpson, Nicole B. (Colgate University)
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New Insights from In-Class Experiments: Using Excel to Post and Analyze Results on the Spot
Creahan, Thomas A. (Morehead State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Global current account imbalances and their adjustment mechanism
Presiding: Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (European Central Bank)

World Bankers
Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier (UC Berkeley)
Rey, Helene (Princeton)
Lopez, Carlos (UC Berkeley)
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Rethinking the Effects of Financial Liberalization in Emerging Markets
Broner, Fernando (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Ventura, Jaume (CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
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A Global Perspective on External Positions
Lane, Philip (Trinity College Dublin)
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria (IMF)

Productivity Shocks, Budget Deficits and the Current Account
Bussiere, Matthieu (ECB)
Fratzscher, Marcel (ECB)
Mueller, Gernot (Frankfurt University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Intrafamily Allocation
Presiding: Justin Wolfers (University of Pennsylvania)

Co-Residence with Aging Parents and Parental Allocations Among Adult Sibs
Behrman, Jere (University of Pennsylvania)
Hoddinott, John (International Food Policy Research Institute)
Maluccio, John (Middlebury College)
Quisumbing, Agnes (International Food Policy Research Institute)
Stein, Aryeh (Emory University)

Spending Time and Money Within the Household
Browning, Martin (University of Copenhagen)
Gortz, Mette (University of Copenhagen)

Parental Investments in Education and Later Financial Transfers: A Preliminary Look
Haider, Steven (Michigan State University)
McGarry, Kathleen (University of California, Los Angeles and NBER)
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Efficiency in Family Bargaining: Living Arrangements and Caregiving Decisions of Adult Children and Disabled Elderly Parents
Pezzin, Liliana (Medical College of Wisconsin)
Pollak, Robert (Washington University and NBER)
Schone, Barbara (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Violence and Wars
Presiding: Fali Huang (Singapore Management University)

Vulnerabilities to Terrorism
Brunet, Alexia (Northwestern University)
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Manipulating Discontent: A Simple Model of Suicide Terrorism
Mitra, Aniruddha (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)
Jellissen, Susan (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)

Crime versus Globalization
de Fontenay, Catherine (University of Melbourne)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Experiments on Social Interaction
Presiding: Dorothea Herreiner (Loyola Marymount University)

Social Preference Aggregation in Groups
Brady, Michael (Ohio State University)
Roe, Brian (Ohio State University)
Wu, Steven (Ohio State University)

Do People Appreciate the Value of Listening to a Variety of Different Opinions?
Healy, Andrew (Loyola Marymount University)
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An Experimental Study of Deliberative Voting
Yariv, Leeat (California Institute of Technology)
Goeree, Jacob (California Institute of Technology)

The Relevance of Envy Freeness as Fairness Criterion
Herreiner, Dorothea (Loyola Marymount University)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Improving Child Outcomes: What Works and What Doesn't
Presiding: Janet Currie (Columbia University)

The Intended and Unintended Consequences of the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) Act: Evidence from Wisconsin
Chakrabarti, Rajashri (Harvard University)

Head Start Participation and Childhood Obesity
Frisvold, David (University of Michigan)
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The Effects of Spanish-Language Background on Schooling and Achievement
Locay, Luis (University of Miami)
Regan, Tracy (University of Miami)
Diamond, Arthur M. (University of Nebraska, Omaha)

Is Child Labor Harmful? The Impact of Working Earlier on Life on Adult Earnings
Emerson, Patrick (Oregon State University)
Souza, Andre Portela (Sao Paulo School of Economics)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Education and Democracy
Presiding: Simon Johnson (MIT)

Why Does Democracy Need Education?
Glaeser, Edward (Harvard University)
Ponzetto, Giacomo (Harvard University)
Schleifer, Andrei (Harvard University)

Democracy and Foreign Education
Spilimbergo, Antonio (International Monetary Fund)
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Education and Institutions
Acemoglu, Daron (MIT)
Johnson, Simon (MIT)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: Social Interactions and Economic Behavior
Presiding: Jeffrey Brown (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBER)

Neighbors Matter: Community Effects and Stock Market Participation
Brown, Jeffrey (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBE)
Ivkovich, Zoran (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
Smith, Paul (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Weisbenner, Scott (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and NBE)
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Social Influences and the Private Provision of Public Goods: Evidence from Charitable Contributions in the Workplace
Carman, Katie (Tilburg University)
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Measuring Social Interactions: Results from the Dutch Post Code Lottery
Kapteyn, Arie (RAND and Tilburg University)
Kooreman, Peter (University of Groningen)
Kuhn, Peter (University of California at Santa Barbara)
Soetevent, Adriaan (University of Amsterdam)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: China's Public Finance and Institutional Changes
Presiding: Yingyi Qian (University of California, Berkeley)

Modeling Institutional Change: China since 1978
Bromley, Daniel W. (University of Wisconsin)
Yao, Yang (Peking University)
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How Economic Performance Plays a Role in China's Local Administrative Change
Li, Lixing (University of Maryland)

Elections, Fiscal Reform and Public Goods Provision in Rural China
Luo, Renfu (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Huang, Jikun (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Zhang, Linxiu (Chinese Academy of Sciences)
Rozelle, Scott (University of California, Davis and Giannini Foundation)

Fiscal Decentralization, Regional Competition, and Economic Performance: Evidence from County-Level Data in China
Yao, Yi (Cornell University)
Zhang, Xiaobo (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 8:00 AM

Session: North Korean Economy at a Crossroads
Presiding: James Lister (Korea Economic Institute of America)

North Korean Economic Scenarios
Bracken, Paul (Yale University)

North Korean Monetary and Exchange rate Policies: Is There a Way Out of Hyperinflation?
Seliger, Bernhard (Hanns Seidel Foundation Korea)
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North Korea: From Failing Towards Reforming State: A Governance Perspective
Ahrens, Joachim (European Business School)
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Economic Sanctions against North Korea
Chang, Semoon (University of South Alabama)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Penalties and Sanctions for Securities Fraud
Presiding: Chester Spatt (Securities and Exchange Commission and Carnegie Mellon University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Grundfest, Joseph (Stanford University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Romano, Roberta (Yale University)

Panelist for Panel Discussion
Snyder, Christopher (Dartmouth College)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Economics of Human Development
Presiding: Thomas Sargent (New York University)

Title to come
Heckman, James J. (University of Chicago)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Understanding Performance Heterogeneity between Firms: The Role of Organizational Capabilities
Presiding: Luis Garicano (University of Chicago)

Competing in Capabilities
Sutton, John (London School of Economics)

Organizational Capabilities: Persistent Performance Differences among Seemingly Similar Enterprises
Gibbons, Robert (MIT)
Henderson, Rebecca (MIT)

Organizational Capabilities: A Cognitive Perspective
Garicano, Luis (University of Chicago)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Field Experiments in Pecuniary and Non-Pecuniary Donations
Presiding: James Andreoni (University of California, San Diego)

The Economics of Open Air Markets: Evidence from a Series of Field Experiments
List, John (University of Chicago)

Social Information and Charitable Contributions
Croson, Rachel (University of Pennsylvania)
Shang, Jen (Indiana University)

Self-Identity, Reputation, and Incentives: Evidence from Field and Lab Experiments
Ariely, Dan (MIT)
Bracha, Anat (MIT)
Meier, Stephan (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)

Active Decisions and Pro-social Behavior: A Field Experiment in Blood Donation
Stutzer, Alois (University of Basel)
Goette, Lorenz (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston)
Zehnder, Michael (University of Zurich)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Contracts, Incentives and Cooperation Between and Within Firms
Presiding: Nisvan Erkal (University of Melbourne)

Discretionary Latitude and the Nature of Relational Contracting
Wu, Steven (The Ohio State University)
Roe, Brian (The Ohio State University)
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On Moral Hazard and Joint R&D
Fabrizi, Simona (Keele University)
Lippert, Steffen (Massey University)
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Optimal Sharing Strategies in Dynamic Games of Research and Development
Erkal, Nisvan (University of Melbourne)
Minehart, Deborah (University of Maryland)
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Evolving Technologies and Standardization
Cabral, Luis (New York University)
Salant, David (ERS Group)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Estimating Models of Consumer Decisions with Applications to Health
Presiding: Donna Gilleskie (University of North Carolina)

The Effect of Bans and Taxes on Passive Smoking
Adda, Jerome (University College London)
Cornaglia, Francesca (University College London)
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Health, Economic Resources, and the Work Decisions of Older Men
Bound, John (University of Michigan)
Stinebrickner, Todd (University of Western Ontario)
Waldmann, Timothy (Urban Institute)

Regulations in Nursing Home Markets: Estimation of a Competitive Model
Ching, Andrew (University of Toronto)
Hayashi, Fumiko (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
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A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Effects of Medicare on Individual Health Incentives and Health Outcomes
Khwaja, Ahmed (Duke University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: U.S. Trade Deficits, the Dollar, and International Monetary Stability Roundtable
Presiding: Dominick Salvatore (Fordham University)

Why Such a Strong Dollar?
Feldstein, Martin (Harvard University)

Exchange Rates and Trade Balances under the Dollar Standard: The Transfer Problem Reconsidered
McKinnon, Ronald (Stanford University)
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The U.S. Deficit and the International Monetary System
Mundell, Robert (Columbia University)

The Dollar and the Current Account Deficit: How Much Should We Worry?
Mussa, Michael (Institute for International Economics)
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The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates Revisited
Rogoff, Kenneth (Harvard University)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Housing and the Macro-Economy
Presiding: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (New York University)

The Political Economy of Housing Supply: Homeowners, Workers, and Voters
Ortalo-Magne, Francois (University of Wisconsin, Madison)
Prat, Andrea (London School of Economics)
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Urban Growth and Housing Supply
Glaeser, Edward (Harvard University)
Gyourko, Joseph (University of Pennsylvania Wharton)
Saks, Raven (Harvard University)

The Puzzling Lack of Correlation in the Value of the Regional Capital and Housing Stock
Lustig, Hanno (UCLA)
Moskowitz, Tobias (University of Chicago)
Ohanian, Lee (UCLA)

Using Housing Prices to Measure the Welfare Cost of Housing Supply Regulation
Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn (New York University Stern)
Weill, Pierre-Olivier (New York University Stern)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: New Strategies for Teaching Economics Courses
Presiding: Paul Romer (Stanford University)

Teaching the Dismal Science Socratically
Elzinga, Kenneth G. (University of Virginia)

A Fresh Look at the Daily Quiz: Engaging Students in Principles Courses
Hoyt, Gail (University of Kentucky)

The Principles of Macroeconomics Class: Teaching Aggregate Thinking
Wood, William C. (James Madison University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Recent Developments in the Analysis of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through, and Policy Implications
Presiding: Michael B. Devereux (University of British Columbia)

Exchange Rate Policy and Endogenous Price Flexibility
Devereux, Michael B. (University of British Columbia)

High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-through in Business Cycle Models
Corsetti, Giancarlo (EUI)
Dedola, Luca (ECB)
Leduc, Sylvain (FRB)
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Trade Integration, Competition, and the Decline in Exchange-rate Pass-through
Gust, Christopher (Federal Reserve Board)
Leduc, Sylvain (Federal Reserve Board)
Vigfusson, Robert (Federal Reserve Board)
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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices: The Role of Non-linearities and Asymmetries
Bussiere, Matthieu (ECB)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Globalization: Multinational Firm Organization and Value Creation
Presiding: Ann Harrison (University of California, Berkeley)

Multinationals Do It Better: Evidence on the Efficiency of Corporations' Capital Budgeting
Greene, William H. (New York University)
Hornstein, Abigail S. (Wesleyan University)
White, Lawrence J. (New York University)
Yeung, Bernard Y. (New York University)

Organizational Form and Firm Responses to Currency Depreciations
Foley, C. Fritz (Harvard Business School)
Xuan, Yuhai (Harvard Business School)

Cross-regional Ties within Firms: Promoting Knowledge Flow or Discouraging Knowledge Spillover?
Zhao, Minyuan (University of Michigan)
Islam, Mazhar (University of Minnesota)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Monetary Systems: Transitions and Experiments
Presiding: Francois Velde (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

The Bank of Amsterdam
Roberds, Will (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)
Quinn, Stephen (Texas Christian University)
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Backing, the Quantity Theory, and the Transition to the Dollar, 1720-1850
Rousseau, Peter (Vanderbilt University)

The Political Economy of the U.S. Monetary Union: The Civil War Era as a Watershed
James, John (University of Virginia)
Weiman, David (Barnard College)
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John Law's System: An Experiment in Public Finance in 18th Century France
Velde, Francois (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Sudden Stops
Presiding: Marco Terrones (International Monetary Fund)

A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management
Caballero, Ricardo (MIT)
Panageas, Stavros (University of Pennsylvania)

Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q
Mendoza, Enrique (University of Maryland and NBER)
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International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence
Aizenman, Joshua (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Lee, Jaewoo (International Monetary Fund)
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Reconsidering the Evidence of Relative PPP in Large Devaluations
Alessandria, George (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
Kaboski, Joseph (Ohio State University)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Gender Implications of Social Welfare Policy Choices
Presiding: Katharine Abraham (University of Maryland)

Old, Poor, and Untreated? Demand for Antidepressants Among Older Women in the United States
Wilcox-Gok, Virginia (Northern Illinois University)
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Why Do Poor Mothers and Children Lose Health Insurance?
Corman, Hope (Rider University)
Noonan, Kelly (Rider University)
Reichman, Nancy E. (Robert Wood Johnson Medical School)
Carroll, Anne (Rider University)

Are Migrant Men and Women an Economic Burden? Changes in the Utilization and Contribution to Public Benefits Surrounding the 1996 Welfare Reform
Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina (San Diego State University)
Bansak, Cynthia (San Diego State University)
Raphael, Steven (University of California, Berkeley)

Earnings Sharing and Social Security Solvency
Schwabish, Jonathan A. (Congressional Budget Office)
Simpson, Michael S. (Congressional Budget Office)
Topoleski, Julie H. (Congressional Budget Office)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Inaction and Adjustment: Consequences for Households and Firms
Presiding: Andrew Abel (University of Pennsylvania)

Optimal Inattention to the Stock Market
Abel, Andrew (University of Pennsylvania)
Eberly, Janice (Northwestern University)
Panageas, Stavros (University of Pennsylvania)
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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D
Bloom, Nick (Stanford University)
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Investment under Uncertainty with Strategic Debt Service
Sundaresan, Suresh (Columbia University)
Wang, Neng (Columbia University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: The Transparency of Political Institutions
Presiding: Ernesto Dal Bo (University of California, Berkeley)

The Perils of Transparency in Bureaucracies
Gavazza, Alessandro (Yale University)
Lizzeri, Alessandro (New York University)
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Decision Making Procedures for Committees of Careerist Experts
Levy, Gilat (London School of Economics)
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The Transparency of Politics and the Quality of Politicians
Mattozzi, Andrea (California Institute of Technology)
Merlo, Antonio (University of Pennsylvania)

Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Biological Evolution and Economics
Presiding: Luis Rayo (University of Chicago)

Some Evolutionary Economics of Family Partnerships
Bergstrom, Theodore C (University of California, Santa Barbara)
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Evolutionary Efficiency and Happiness
Rayo, Luis (University of Chicago)
Becker, Gary S. (University of Chicago)

Why do We Die? Economics, Biology and Aging
Robson, Arthur J (Simon Fraser University)
Kaplan, Hillard S (University of New Mexico)
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The Evolution of Intertemporal Incentives
Samuelson, Larry (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Robson, Arthur (Simon Fraser University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Defense Economics: Theory and Applications
Presiding: Claude Berrebi (RAND Corporation)

Military Conscription and the Socially Optimal Number of Boots on the Ground
Berck, Peter (UC Berkeley)
Lipow, Jonathan (Academic College of Judea and Samaria)
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The Economic Effects of Terrorism: Counterfactual Analysis of the Case of Israel
Persitz, Dotan (Tel Aviv University)
Tsiddon, Daniel (Tel Aviv University)
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Death (Machines) and (Optimal) Taxes
Lipow, Jonathan (Academic College of Judea and Samaria)
Plessner, Yakir (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
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Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: An Info-Gap Approach
Ben-Gad, Michael (Haifa University)
Ben-Haim, Yakov (Israel Institute of Technology (Technion))
Peled, Dan (Haifa University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Beyond Drug and Hospital Costs: Comprehensive Accounting for Health Care
Presiding: Steven J. Landefeld (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)

Medicare Part D, Prescription Drug Prices, and Treatment Quality
Berndt, Ernst (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Busch, Alisa M. (McLean Hospital and Harvard Medical School)
Frank, Richard G. (Harvard Medical School)
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Revising and Expanding National Health Accounts
Rosen, Allison (University of Michigan)

Measuring the Price and Output of Health Care Services
Christian, Michael (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

A Different Application for Productivity Measures, or Has the Difficulty of Measuring Physician Productivity Caused the Federal Deficit to be Understated?
Newhouse, Joseph (Harvard University)
Sinaiko, Anna D. (Harvard University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Health and Development in the Developed and Developing Worlds
Presiding: Kenneth Chay (University of California, Berkeley)

Does Money Matter? The Effects of Cash Transfers on Child Health and Development in Rural Ecuador
Paxson, Christina (Princeton University and NBER)
Schady, Norbert (World Bank)
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Underdevelopment and Health: Indoor Air Pollution in South Asia
Rosenzweig, Mark (Yale University and NBER)

Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Is there a Causal Relationship Between Child Health and Human Capital Development?
Currie, Janet (Columbia University and NBER)
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Fast-Food Restaurant Advertising on Television and Its Influence on Childhood Obesity
Grossman, Michael (City University of New York and NBER)
Yi-Chou, Shin (Lehigh University and NBER)
Rashad, Inas (George State University and NBER)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 10:15 AM

Session: Globalization and Economic Outcomes for Minority Groups
Presiding: James Peoples (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)

The Effect of Globalization on the Performance of Small and Medium Enterprises in the US: Does Owners' Race/Ethnicity Matter?
Asiedu, Elizabeth (University of Kansas)
Freeman, James (Wheaton College)
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The Effects of Recent Immigration and Trade on Racial/Ethnic Labor Market Differentials
Reed, Deborah (Public Policy Institute of California)
Danziger, Sheldon (University of Michigan)
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Foreign Direct Investment and Racial Employment Patterns
Gelan, Abera (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)
Husbands-Fealing, Kaye (Williams College)
Peoples, James (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee)
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Differential Impacts of Immigrants on Native Black and White Workers
Ong, Paul (University of California, Los Angeles)
Mar, Don (San Francisco State University)
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Saturday, January 6, 2007, 12:30 PM