American Economic Review: Vol. 104 No. 5 (May 2014)

President's Foreword (pp. xi-xii)
William D. Nordhaus
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article

Papers: Richard T. Ely Lecture

Retirement Security in an Aging Population (pp. 1-30)
James M. Poterba
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (683.47 KB)

Papers: What's Natural? Key Macroeconomic Parameters after the Great Recession

Inflation Persistence, the NAIRU, and the Great Recession (pp. 31-36)
Mark W. Watson
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (156.66 KB) | Download Data Set (400.38 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (25.37 KB)
The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy (pp. 37-43)
Robert Barsky, Alejandro Justiniano and Leonardo Melosi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (36.12 KB) | Online Appendix (121.46 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (29.89 KB)
The Future of US Economic Growth (pp. 44-49)
John G. Fernald and Charles I. Jones
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (666.44 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (9.43 KB)

Papers: Recessions and Recoveries

Recovery from Financial Crises: Evidence from 100 Episodes (pp. 50-55)
Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (18.85 KB) | Download Data Set (340.06 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (32.27 KB)
Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960? (pp. 56-60)
Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Brandice Canes-Wrone, Steven J. Davis and Jonathan Rodden
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (19.14 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (171.63 KB)

Papers: Is Neglect Benign? The Case of United States Housing Finance Policy

Housing Assignment with Restrictions: Theory and Evidence from Stanford University's Campus (pp. 67-72)
Tim Landvoigt, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (20.56 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (123.55 KB)

Papers: Sovereign Debt Crisis

Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone? (pp. 88-93)
Juan Carlos Conesa and Timothy J. Kehoe
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (42.27 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (24.80 KB)
Sovereign Debt Booms in Monetary Unions (pp. 101-06)
Mark Aguiar, Manuel Amador, Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (711.97 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (108.20 KB)

Papers: Perspectives on Consumption

The Distribution of Wealth and the MPC: Implications of New European Data (pp. 107-11)
Christopher D. Carroll, Jiri Slacalek and Kiichi Tokuoka
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (392.05 KB) | Download Data Set (2.76 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (76.64 KB)

Papers: New Directions and Opportunities for Research on Consumption with the PSID

Consumption Inequality over the Last Half Century: Some Evidence Using the New PSID Consumption Measure (pp. 122-26)
Orazio Attanasio and Luigi Pistaferri
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (11.00 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (18.24 KB)
The Intergenerational Correlation of Consumption Expenditures (pp. 136-40)
Kerwin Kofi Charles, Sheldon Danziger, Geng Li and Robert Schoeni
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (4.36 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (432.82 KB)

Papers: Big Data in Macroeconomics: New Insights from Large Administrative Datasets

Is the United States Still a Land of Opportunity? Recent Trends in Intergenerational Mobility (pp. 141-47)
Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Patrick Kline, Emmanuel Saez and Nicholas Turner
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (509.20 KB) | Download Data Set (53.94 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (189.62 KB)
How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners? (pp. 148-53)
Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan and Jae Song
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (7.76 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (125.00 KB)
Year-End Tax Planning of Top Management: Evidence from High-Frequency Payroll Data (pp. 154-58)
Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen and Peer Ebbesen Skov
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (41.37 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (510.94 KB)

Papers: Macro Development with Micro Data

Macro-perspective on Asset Grants Programs: Occupational and Wealth Mobility (pp. 159-64)
Francisco J. Buera, Joseph P. Kaboski and Yongseok Shin
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (47.18 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (49.93 KB)
Agricultural Productivity Differences across Countries (pp. 165-70)
Douglas Gollin, David Lagakos and Michael E. Waugh
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (64.44 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (55.12 KB)

Papers: Theory and Measurement of Intangible Capital

A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory (pp. 177-82)
Ellen R. McGrattan and Edward C. Prescott
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (11.29 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (39.06 KB)
The Value and Ownership of Intangible Capital (pp. 189-94)
Andrea L. Eisfeldt and Dimitris Papanikolaou
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (15.48 KB) | Download Data Set (66.18 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (605.35 KB)

Papers: Econometrics: Identification and Structural Estimation

Weak Identification in Maximum Likelihood: A Question of Information (pp. 195-99)
Isaiah Andrews and Anna Mikusheva
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (19.25 KB)

Papers: Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging

The Determinants of the Macroeconomic Implications of Aging (pp. 218-23)
Louise Sheiner
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (1.40 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (10.64 KB)

Papers: Innovation, Labor, and Wealth

Disparities in Wealth Accumulation and Loss from the Great Recession and Beyond (pp. 240-44)
Signe-Mary McKernan, Caroline Ratcliffe, Eugene Steuerle and Sisi Zhang
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (150.75 KB) | Download Data Set (3.93 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (55.59 KB)

Papers: Developing Country Lessons for Advanced Economy Growth

Learning from the Doers: Developing Country Lessons for Advanced Economy Growth (pp. 260-65)
Anusha Chari and Peter Blair Henry
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (33.05 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (136.79 KB)

Papers: The Demand for Insurance in Developing Countries

Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (pp. 278-83)
Mark R. Rosenzweig and Christopher Udry
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (41.22 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (70.35 KB)

Papers: Gains from Trade When Firms Matter

Together at Last: Trade Costs, Demand Structure, and Welfare (pp. 298-303)
Monika Mrázová and J. Peter Neary
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (354.95 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (102.55 KB)
Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Selection (pp. 304-09)
Antonella Nocco, Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano and Matteo Salto
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (80.62 KB)
Welfare and Trade without Pareto (pp. 310-16)
Keith Head, Thierry Mayer and Mathias Thoenig
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (480.45 KB) | Download Data Set (1.81 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (49.51 KB)
Missing Gains from Trade? (pp. 317-21)
Marc J. Melitz and Stephen J. Redding
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (164.29 KB)

Papers: The Impact of Health Insurance Expansions on Other Social Safety Net Programs

The Impact of Medicaid on Labor Market Activity and Program Participation: Evidence from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment (pp. 322-28)
Katherine Baicker, Amy Finkelstein, Jae Song and Sarah Taubman
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (238.11 KB) | Download Data Set (14.83 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (71.12 KB)

Papers: Marriage, Divorce, and Female Labor Force Participation

Unilateral Divorce, the Decreasing Gender Gap, and Married Women's Labor Force Participation (pp. 342-47)
Raquel Fernández and Joyce Wong
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (29.12 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (25.36 KB)
Marry Your Like: Assortative Mating and Income Inequality (pp. 348-53)
Jeremy Greenwood, Nezih Guner, Georgi Kocharkov and Cezar Santos
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (293.59 KB) | Online Appendix (58.44 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (161.46 KB)
Labor Supply and Household Dynamics (pp. 354-59)
Maurizio Mazzocco, Claudia Ruiz and Shintaro Yamaguchi
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (968.69 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (119.69 KB)

Papers: Gender: The Economics of Gender

The Myth of Immigrant Women as Secondary Workers: Evidence from Canada (pp. 360-64)
Alícia Adserà and Ana M. Ferrer
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (40.28 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (115.12 KB)

Papers: Inequality in the Future

The Declining Fortunes of the Young since 2000 (pp. 381-86)
Paul Beaudry, David A. Green and Benjamin M. Sand
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (122.37 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (397.05 KB)
Return of the Solow Paradox? IT, Productivity, and Employment in US Manufacturing (pp. 394-99)
Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson and Brendan Price
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (795.02 KB) | Download Data Set (5.97 MB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (501.50 KB)

Papers: Policy Interventions and Educational Outcomes

Ability-Tracking, Instructional Time, and Better Pedagogy: The Effect of Double-Dose Algebra on Student Achievement (pp. 400-405)
Kalena E. Cortes and Joshua S. Goodman
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (22.11 KB) | Download Data Set (22.37 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (109.26 KB)
Mechanism Design in Large Games: Incentives and Privacy (pp. 431-35)
Michael Kearns, Mallesh M. Pai, Aaron Roth and Jonathan Ullman
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (33.15 KB)
Investment Incentives in Labor Market Matching (pp. 436-41)
John William Hatfield, Fuhito Kojima and Scott Duke Kominers
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (36.36 KB)

Papers: Market Design for Auction Markets

The VCG Auction in Theory and Practice (pp. 442-45)
Hal R. Varian and Christopher Harris
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (47.98 KB)
The Continuous Combinatorial Auction Architecture (pp. 452-56)
Charles R. Plott, Hsing-Yang Lee and Travis Maron
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (162.36 KB) | Download Data Set (22.75 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (83.97 KB)

Papers: Theory of Persuasion

Costly Persuasion (pp. 457-62)
Matthew Gentzkow and Emir Kamenica
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (51.17 KB)
How Sharing Information Can Garble Experts' Advice (pp. 463-68)
Matthew Elliott, Benjamin Golub and Andrei Kirilenko
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (286.66 KB)

Papers: Economics of the Internet and Mobile Computing

Mobile Computing: The Next Platform Rivalry (pp. 475-80)
Timothy Bresnahan and Shane Greenstein
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (64.67 KB)
Growth, Adoption, and Use of Mobile E-Commerce (pp. 489-94)
Liran Einav, Jonathan Levin, Igor Popov and Neel Sundaresan
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (169.52 KB) | Download Data Set (16.87 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (39.79 KB)

Papers: Neuroeconomics of Stochastic Choice

Stochastic Choice: An Optimizing Neuroeconomic Model (pp. 495-500)
Michael Woodford
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (189.40 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (62.53 KB)

Papers: Economics Education in the Digital Age: The Implications of Online Technologies and MOOCs

(Dis)organization and Success in an Economics MOOC (pp. 514-18)
Abhijit V. Banerjee and Esther Duflo
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Download Data Set (137.03 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (82.71 KB)

Papers: Discounting for the Long Run

Discounting and Growth (pp. 534-37)
Christian Gollier
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (11.46 KB)
Declining Discount Rates (pp. 538-43)
Maureen L. Cropper, Mark C. Freeman, Ben Groom and William A. Pizer
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (218.21 KB)

Papers: Climate Change Policy after Kyoto

Selected International Aspects of Carbon Taxation (pp. 552-56)
Charles E. McLure Jr.
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (10.69 KB)
How Effective Are US Renewable Energy Subsidies in Cutting Greenhouse Gases? (pp. 569-74)
Brian C. Murray, Maureen L. Cropper, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye and John M. Reilly
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (717.03 KB)

Papers: Energy in the Developing World

Powering Up China: Income Distributions and Residential Electricity Consumption (pp. 575-80)
Maximilian Auffhammer and Catherine D. Wolfram
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article | Online Appendix (142.00 KB) | Author Disclosure Statement(s) (55.36 KB)
Report of the Secretary (pp. 595-98)
Peter L. Rousseau
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)
Report of the Treasurer (pp. 599-602)
Peter L. Rousseau
Abstract/Tools | Full-text Article (Complimentary)


American Economic Review


Quick Tools:

Sign up for Email Alerts

Follow us on Twitter

Subscription Information
(Institutional Administrator Access)

Explore:

AER - All Issues

AER - Forthcoming Articles

Virtual Field Journals


AEA Member Login:


AEAweb | AEA Journals | Contact Us