Foreign Safe Asset Demand for US Treasurys and the Dollar

By Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Hanno Lustig

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

We present theory showing that the spot dollar exchange rate reflects the value of all future convenience yields that foreign investors assign to US Treasuries. The convenience yield also creates wedge, the Treasury-based dollar basis, between the yield o...

Low-Cost Randomized Controlled Trials in Education

By Nathan Wozny, Cary Balser, and Drew Ives

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely accepted as the gold standard in program evaluation but are uncommon in educational research. A likely explanation is that experiments designed with sufficient statistical precision to detect meaningful impac...

China's Rate-Based Approach to Reducing CO₂ Emissions: Attractions, Limitations, and Alternatives

By Lawrence H. Goulder and Richard D. Morgenstern

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

A distinguishing feature of China's recently launched emissions trading system (ETS) is its rate-based structure. This structure governs the way emissions allowances are allocated and the conditions for compliance, and it has important implications for sy...

China's New National Carbon Market

By William A. Pizer and Xiliang Zhang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

On December 19, 2017, China announced the official start of its national emissions trading system (ETS) construction program. When fully implemented, this program will more than double the volume of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions covered by either tax...

Split Families and the Future of Children: Immigration Enforcement and Foster Care Placements

By Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes and Esther Arenas-Arroyo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Tougher immigration enforcement has been responsible for approximately 1.8 million deportations between 2009 and 2013 alone. Children enter the foster care system when their parents are apprehended, deported, and unable to care for them. We find that the ...

Estimating Economic Characteristics with Phone Data

By Joshua E. Blumenstock

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Historically, economists have relied heavily on survey-based data collection to measure social and economic well-being. Here, we investigate the extent to which the "digital footprints" of an individual can be used to infer his or her socioeconomic charac...

In Debt and Approaching Retirement: Claim Social Security or Work Longer?

By Barbara A. Butrica and Nadia S. Karamcheva

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Over the past couple of decades, older Americans have become considerably more leveraged. This paper considers whether household debt affects the timing of retirement and Social Security benefit claiming. Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, w...

Racial and Ethnic Sentencing Differentials in the Federal Criminal Justice System

By Brendon McConnell and Imran Rasul

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

A large body of multidisciplinary research has documented how sentencing outcomes vary tremendously across racial and ethnic groups. The research challenge lies in establishing whether these sentencing differentials are driven by unobserved heterogeneity ...

The Effect of the Disability Insurance Application Decision on the Employment of Denied Applicants

By Mashfiqur R. Khan

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) affects the labor supply of applicants through its work discouragement and through human capital deterioration regardless of the ultimate acceptance or denial of the claim. In this paper, I provide an estimate o...

Book Reviews

Journal of Economic Literature, September 2014

Searching for Service

By Maarten C. W. Janssen and T. Tony Ke

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2020

Since Telser (1960), there is a well-established argument that a competitive market will not provide service due to freeriding. We show that with search frictions, the market may well provide service if the cost of doing so is not too large. Any market eq...

Report: Job Openings for Economists

By John J. Siegfried

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Report: Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession (CSMGEP)

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

A Mechanism for Eliciting Second-Order Beliefs and the Inclination to Choose

By Edi Karni

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, May 2018

This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting decision makers' introspective beliefs on sets of subjective prior or posterior probabilities. The proposed scheme constitutes a revealed-preference procedure for measuring the inclination o...

A Macroeconomic Approach to Optimal Unemployment Insurance: Theory

By Camille Landais, Pascal Michaillat, and Emmanuel Saez

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2018

This paper develops a theory of optimal unemployment insurance (UI) in matching models. The optimal UI replacement rate is the conventional Baily-Chetty replacement rate, which solves the tradeoff between insurance and job-search incentives, plus a correc...

The Effects of Tax Changes at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

By Akihisa Kato, Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Dmitriy Sergeyev

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

We use the narrative approach to identify tax changes unrelated to current economic conditions and estimate the effects of these changes on macroeconomic variables during and outside of the zero lower bound period in Japan. We find little difference in th...

The Welfare Consequences of Income-Induced Expenditure Switching

By Rudolfs Bems and Julian Di Giovanni

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Bems and di Giovanni (2016) establish that income-induced expenditure switching (IIES) from foreign goods to cheaper domestic substitutes played a significant role in external rebalancing during the 2008–2009 financial crisis in Latvia. In this paper, w...

Last Place? The Intersection of Ethnicity, Gender, and Race in Biomedical Authorship

By Gerald Marschke, Allison Nunez, Bruce A. Weinberg, and Huifeng Yu

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018

Applying big data methods to biomedical science articles, we show that women and underrepresented racial and ethnic groups are less likely to be last authors, an indicator of career independence. We leverage the massive size of our data to highlight the i...

Book Reviews

Journal of Economic Literature, December 2018

Front Matter

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2018