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Oil and Macroeconomic (In)stability

By Hilde C. Bjørnland, Vegard H. Larsen, and Junior Maih

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, October 2018

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroec...

An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science

[Symposium: Climate Change]

By Solomon Hsiang and Robert E. Kopp

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 2018

This article provides a brief introduction to the physical science of climate change, aimed towards economists. We begin by describing the physics that controls global climate, how scientists measure and model the climate system, and the magnitude of huma...

Reducing Inequality through Dynamic Complementarity: Evidence from Head Start and Public School Spending

By Rucker C. Johnson and C. Kirabo Jackson

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2019

We compare the adult outcomes of cohorts who were differentially exposed to policy-induced changes in Head Start and K–12 spending, depending on place and year of birth. IV and sibling-difference estimates indicate that, for poor children, these policie...

Sustaining Honesty in Public Service: The Role of Selection

By Sebastian Barfort, Nikolaj A. Harmon, Frederik Hjorth, and Asmus Leth Olsen

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2019

We study the role of self-selection into public service in sustaining honesty in the public sector. Focusing on the world's least corrupt country, Denmark, we use a survey experiment to document strong self-selection of more honest individuals into public...

The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction

By Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif

American Economic Review, December 2019

We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new app...

Revenue Guarantee Equivalence

By Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, and Stephen Morris

American Economic Review, May 2019

We revisit the revenue comparison of standard auction formats, including first-price, second-price, and English auctions. We rank auctions according to their revenue guarantees, i.e., the greatest lower bound of revenue across all informational environm...