The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory

By Xiwen Bai, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Yiliang Li, and Francesco Zanetti

American Economic Review

We study the causal effects of global supply chain disruptions by constructing a new index of real-time port congestion using Automatic Identification System data from container ships and a spatial clustering algorithm. We develop a model with search f...

The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges

By Oliver Pfäuti

American Economic Review

The recent inflation surge brought inflation back on people’s minds. I quantify when and how much attention to inflation changes and derive the macroeconomic implications of these attention changes. I estimate an attention threshold at an inflation r...

Social Push and the Direction of Innovation

By Elias Einiö, Josh Feng, and Xavier Jaravel

American Economic Review

What are the implications of unequal access to innovation careers for the direction of innovation and inequality? Leveraging novel linked datasets in the United States and Finland, we document that innovators create products more likely to be purchased ...

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July 24, 2026

View the AEA Member Announcement from July 27, 2026.

High School Effects on Civic Engagement

By Kirsten Slungaard Mumma

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Preparing young people for citizenship is a foundational purpose of public education, yet little is known about whether or how K-12 schools impact civic engagement. Using education, birth, and voting records for nine cohorts of students in Indiana, I e...

Health Insurance and Access to Care for the Near Elderly

By Michael Anderson, Carlos Dobkin, Nicole Maestas, and Liam Rose

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

The vast majority of Americans become eligible for Medicare at age 65. This results in 7 percent of the near elderly transitioning from uninsurance to insurance and 60 percent switching from some source of insurance to Medicare. We develop an extension...

From Banks to Nonbanks: Macroprudential and Monetary Policy Effects on Corporate Lending

By Bruno Albuquerque, Eugenio Cerutti, Nanyu Chen, and Melih Firat

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

The growing role of nonbanks in corporate credit intermediation raises important yet underexplored questions about the transmission of monetary policy (MP) and macroprudential policy (MaPP) to the real economy. Using syndicated loan data, we find that ...

A Static Capital Buffer is Hard To Beat

By Matthew Canzoneri, Behzad Diba, Luca Guerrieri, and Arsenii Mishin

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

In a model with endogenous risk-taking, deposit insurance and limited liability may lead banks to make risky loans that are socially inefficient. Capital requirements can prevent excessive risk-taking at the cost of reducing liquidity-producing bank dep...

Using Machine Learning to Generate, Clarify, and Improve Economic Models

By Annie Liang

Journal of Economic Literature

This article examines how machine learning and other computational techniques can contribute to the development of economic models. First, comparing economic models to flexible algorithms can help clarify the strengths and limitations of existing models,...

Knowledge Spillovers, Competition, and Individual Careers

By Thomas Cornelissen, Christian Dustmann, and Uta Schönberg

American Economic Review

Exposure to better peers in the workplace can influence career trajectories through two opposing channels: positively, via knowledge spillovers, and negatively, through competition for advancement. We disentangle these effects by studying untrained lab...

Becoming Legible to the State: The Necessary but Not Sufficient Role of Identification in Taxation

By Oyebola Okunogbe

American Economic Review

Many lower-income countries know little about their citizens and their tax bases, which hinders effective taxation. This paper studies the impact of making the tax base more “legible” to the state and signaling this legibility to taxpayers. Leveragi...

Firm Adaptation in Production Networks: Evidence from Extreme Weather Events in Pakistan

By Clare Balboni, Johannes Boehm, and Mazhar Waseem

American Economic Review

This paper considers how far private adaptation may reduce future vulnerability to climate risks. Using data on monthly firm-to-firm transactions from Pakistan, we find that flood-affected firms are more likely to relocate to safer ground, and shift pur...

The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from US Appropriations Shocks

By Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens

American Economic Review

Based on a narrative classification of all significant postwar changes in R&D appropriations for five major federal agencies, we find that an increase in nondefense R&D appropriations leads to increases in various measures of innovative activity and hi...

Sunk Cost: Who's to Blame for the Nation's Broken Student Loan System and How to Fix It by Jillian Berman

By Michael Dinerstein

Journal of Economic Literature

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The economics of sanctioning a petrostate

[Research Highlight]

July 27, 2026

Lukasz Rachel and Catherine Wolfram discuss the G7 price cap on Russian oil and why it defied textbook predictions.

A Theory of Price Caps on Nonrenewable Resources

By Simon Johnson, Lukasz Rachel, and Catherine Wolfram

American Economic Review, July 2026

What is the optimal response of a resource exporter when a price cap is imposed on its main export? This paper develops a dynamic framework incorporating stochastic prices, financial frictions, and market power to study this novel tool of statecraft. With...

Front Matter

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, August 2026