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Highway to Hitler

By Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2026

We show that the building of the Autobahn network in Nazi Germany boosted popular support for Adolf Hitler, helping to entrench the Nazi dictatorship. Direct local economic benefits are unlikely to explain the effect. Instead, it reflects successful propa...

Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime

By Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2026

Exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the timing of cancer diagnoses, we establish that health shocks elicit a large and persistent increase in the probability of committing a crime. This effect materializes in a substantial rise in both first crim...

From Immediate Acceptance to Deferred Acceptance: Effects on School Admissions and Achievement in England

By Camille Terrier, Parag A. Pathak, and Kevin Ren

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2026

Countries and cities around the world increasingly rely on centralized systems for student placement. Two algorithms, deferred acceptance (DA) and immediate acceptance (IA), are widespread. We investigate the effects of the national ban of IA in England. ...

Divine Policy: The Impact of Religion in Government

By Jeanet Sinding Bentzen, Alessandro Pizzigolotto, and Lena Lindbjerg Sperling

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2026

Can policies shape personal values and beliefs? To examine, we exploit the staggered introduction of faith-based initiatives across US states. Our difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the initiatives strengthened religiosity and conservative-re...

Rising Concentration of Household Shopping, Superstar Firms, and the Implications for Retail Markups

By Justin H. Leung and Zhonglin Li

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2026

This paper documents an increase in the concentration of household shopping in the United States retail sector from 2004 to 2019. Despite a growing number of stores, households visit fewer stores, do more one-stop shopping, and increasingly shop at differ...

Uncertainty and the Economy: The Evolving Distributions of Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks

By Geert Bekaert, Eric Engstrom, and Andrey Ermolov

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2026

We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks. We distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and "bad" uncertainty, associated with negative skewness. The Great Moderation is driven by a redu...

The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare

By Almut Balleer, Georg Duernecker, Susanne Forstner, and Johannes Goensch

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2026

We analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have ...

Bank Risk-Taking, Credit Allocation, and Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from China

By Xiaoming Li, Zheng Liu, Yuchao Peng, and Zhiwei Xu

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2026

Using confidential loan-level data, we examine how Basel III influenced the responses of bank risk-taking to monetary policy shocks in China. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, exploiting disparities in lending behavior between high- and l...