Using Multiple Data Sources to Learn about the Race and Ethnicity of Taxpayers

By Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, James Pearce, and Jonathan Rothbaum

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Recently, studying income by race and ethnicity has gained interest among policymakers. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly reports on the distribution of household income, using a statistically matched dataset with survey and administrative t...

Marriage Equality and the Transnational Flow of Skilled Labor: The Impact of Same-Sex Marriage Legalization in the United States on the Inflow of Skilled Labor

By Koroles Awad and Jill J. McCluskey

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper examines the impact on skilled labor migration to the United States of same-sex marriage legalization in European countries and US federal recognition of foreign same-sex marriages. Analyzing US Department of Homeland Security data, we find tha...

LGBTQ+ Homeownership in the United States

By Ana H. Kent and Sophia C. Scott

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

LGBTQ+ adults had a lower homeownership rate (53 percent) than non-LGBTQ+ adults (72.5 percent). Looking at LGBTQ+ subgroups by sexual orientation and gender identity revealed important nuances. Transgender people and bisexual people had the lowest homeow...

Family Matters: Exposure to Gender-Affirming or Gender-Denying Practices Following Gender Identity Milestones

By Travis Campbell, Samuel Mann, Yana van der Meulen Rodgers, and Nathaniel M. Tran

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study examines the relationship between gender identity milestones, family support, and exposure to gender-affirming or gender-denying practices. Leveraging a retrospective panel from the 2015 US Transgender Survey, we compare changes in exposure to ...

Matching Patterns among Same-Sex and Different-Sex Couples in Latin America

By Ercio A. Muñoz and Dario Sansone

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Using microdata from the censuses of eight countries in Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay), this paper describes matching patterns by age, ethnicity, and education among same-sex and different-sex coup...

The Linear Algebra of Economic Geography Models

By Benny Kleinman, Ernest Liu, and Stephen J. Redding

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We provide sufficient statistics for nominal and real wage exposure to productivity shocks in a constant elasticity economic geography model. These exposure measures summarize the first-order general equilibrium elasticity of nominal and real wages in eac...

The Traveling Trucker Problem

By Treb Allen, David Atkin, Santiago Cantillo Cleves, and Carlos Eduardo Hernandez

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper documents three new stylized facts showing that truckers in Colombia frequently choose to make complex chains of shipments in a single trip before returning home. It then provides a new model of optimal trucker trip-chaining with a general geog...

Affordability of Owner-Occupied Housing across US Cities

By Rebecca Diamond and William Diamond

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper compares the affordability of owner-occupied housing across US cities. We apply a new method for imputing the rental value of owner-occupied housing developed in Diamond and Diamond (2024) that accounts for unobserved house quality. On average,...

Event Studies with a Continuous Treatment

By Brantly Callaway, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper builds on the identification results and estimation tools for continuous difference-in-difference designs in Callaway, Goodman-Bacon, and Sant'Anna (2024) to discuss aggregation strategies for event studies with continuous treatments. Estimates...

Difference-in-Difference Estimators with Continuous Treatments and No Stayers

By Clément de Chaisemartin, Xavier D'Haultfœuille, and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Many treatments, such as prices, taxes, or temperatures, are continuous in nature. Empirical researchers usually rely on two-way fixed effect regressions to estimate treatment effects in such cases. However, such estimators are not robust to heterogeneous...

Temporal Aggregation for the Synthetic Control Method

By Liyang Sun, Eli Ben-Michael, and Avi Feller

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

The synthetic control method (SCM) is a popular approach for estimating the impact of a treatment on a single unit with panel data. Two challenges arise with higher-frequency data (e.g., monthly versus yearly): (i) achieving excellent pretreatment fit is ...

Origins of US Inflation

By Christopher A. Sims

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Measuring fiscal pressure on inflation by the ratio of the primary deficit to the outstanding federal debt, this paper traces its growth through the 1970s, along with the shifts in the politics of deficits. There are thought-provoking parallels to the pan...

The NY Fed DSGE Model: A Post-COVID Assessment

By Marco Del Negro, Keshav Dogra, Aidan Gleich, Pranay Gundam, Donggyu Lee, Ramya Nallamotu, and Brian Pacula

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model since 2011. We find the DSGE's accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters before COVID but som...

What Do Long Data Tell Us about the Permanent Component of Inflation?

By Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Is postwar data enough to estimate the permanent component of inflation? We find that it is not for episodes of sudden and large inflation spikes like the one observed after the COVID-19 pandemic because such episodes are rare in the prewar sample (the in...

Will Wealth Weaken Weather Wars?

By Marshall Burke, Joel Ferguson, Solomon Hsiang, and Edward Miguel

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study estimates the moderating impact of economic development on climate-conflict linkages during 1989–2019 in Africa, the world region that in recent decades has experienced the most armed conflict. We build a spatially disaggregated dataset that ...

Social Media as an Identity Barometer: Evidence From the Russia-Ukraine War

By Serhii Abramenko, Vasily Korovkin, and Alexey Makarin

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study investigates how social media data can be used to study shifts in identity, focusing on Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war. We analyze VK users' reported language proficiency and the language of tweets and note a significant shift from Russi...

Refugees Are Hosted in Highly Vulnerable Communities

By C. Austin Davis, Paula López-Peña, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, and Jaya Y. Wen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

Low- and middle-income nations host 76 percent of the world's refugees. This study uses original data to explore within-country spatial variability in refugee-hosting responsibilities. We find that hosting responsibilities for the displaced Rohingya peopl...

The Intensifying Effects of Prolonged Climate Change on Conflict, 1400–1900 CE

By Murat Iyigun, Joris Mueller, and Nancy Qian

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This study uses historical conflict and weather data for the period 1400–1900 CE to investigate the long-run effects of climate change on political instability in a context that suffered extensive cooling. The results show that temperature changes have ...

Maternal Mental Health Responses to COVID-19 Shocks and Uncertainty in Rural Pakistan

By Michelle Escobar Carias, Victoria Baranov, Joanna Maselko, Pietro Biroli, and Sonia Bhalotra

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

In this paper, we investigate the association between a battery of mental health measures and experienced morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19, worry about disease risk, experienced economic shocks, and economic uncertainty about the future. We find th...

Depression, Poverty, and Economic Shocks: Evidence from India

By Manuela Angelucci and Daniel Bennett

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2024

This paper examines the correlations between socioeconomic status, economic shocks, and depression, and how these vary by gender, in a sample of adults from India. Poverty and the exposure to negative shocks are both associated with depression. However, t...