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  4. February 2018
  5. The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges

The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges

  • Will Dobbie
  • Jacob Goldin
  • Crystal S. Yang
American Economic Review
vol. 108, no. 2, February 2018
(pp. 201-40)
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Abstract

Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pretrial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of pretrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pretrial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an increase in guilty pleas. Pretrial detention has no net effect on future crime, but decreases formal sector employment and the receipt of employment- and tax-related government benefits. These results are consistent with (i) pretrial detention weakening defendants' bargaining positions during plea negotiations and (ii) a criminal conviction lowering defendants' prospects in the formal labor market.

Citation

Dobbie, Will, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang. 2018. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges." American Economic Review, 108 (2): 201-40. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20161503

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • J23 Labor Demand
  • J31 Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
  • J65 Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
  • K41 Litigation Process
  • K42 Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law