The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet

By Diego S. Cardoso, Stephen W. Salant, and Julien Daubanes

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

To reduce Russia’s funding for its Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed, after a delay, a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports utilizing Western services. To evade that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” using no such ser...

Past CSWEP Board Members

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Why Is Fertility So Low in High-Income Countries?

By Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine

Journal of Economic Literature

We consider why fertility has fallen in recent decades in almost all high-income countries. We begin by documenting declining total fertility and rising childlessness across cohorts, highlighting the need to focus on cohort versus period-specific fertilit...

Household-Level Responses to the European Energy Crisis

By Lassi Ahlvik, Tuomas Kaariaho, Matti Liski, and Iivo Vehviläinen

American Economic Review: Insights

Cost-of-living shocks can have large and unequal effects, but causal evidence on households’ adaptive responses is scarce. Using Finnish administrative microdata from the 2022 energy crisis, we exploit variation in electricity contract expirations to ...

Attracting and Retaining Highly Effective Educators in Hard-to-Staff Schools

By Andrew Morgan, Minh Nguyen, Eric Hanushek, Ben Ost, and Steven Rivkin

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

Attracting and retaining effective teachers in high-poverty schools remains a persistent challenge. We evaluate the impact of an initiative that offered substantial performance-based compensation to highly effective teachers in the lowest-achieving school...

Call for Proposals: Co-Impact Grant

[News]

February 24, 2026

Proposals should be submitted by February 27, 2026.

Increasing Inventories: The Role of Delivery Times

By Maria-Jose Carreras-Valle

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Inventories mitigate the risk of global sourcing. I present new evidence of the rise in U.S. manufacturing inventories after 2005, reversing a declining trend that lasted for decades. I examine this trend in a model of delivery times and inventories. T...

Diversion Risk, Markups, and the Financing Cost Advantage of Trade Credit

By Alvaro Garcia-Marin, Santiago Justel, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Trade credit is a key source of short-term finance. This paper develops a model where trade credit reduces borrowing from banks. This reduction gives rise to a financing cost advantage of trade credit that increases in the product of markups and borrowi...

The Lost Marie Curies and Foregone Economic Growth

By Jean-Félix Brouillette

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Women made up only 15% of U.S. inventors in 2024. Assuming no intrinsic gender differences in inventive potential, the scarcity of women in research reveals that the U.S. is missing out on some of its brightest minds. How costly is this talent misalloca...

Environmental Subsidies to Mitigate Net-Zero Transition Costs

By Eric Jondeau, Gregory Levieuge, Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, and Gauthier Vermandel

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

Imperfect competition within the pollution abatement equipment sector may hinder the Paris Agreement’s goals. We show that carbon tax–funded environmental subsidies can stimulate firm entry, enhance competition, and lower abatement costs for busine...

Labor Share, Markups, and Input-Output Linkages – Evidence from the U.S. National Accounts

By Benjamin Bridgman and Berthold Herrendorf

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

This paper investigates declining U.S. labor share by employing a multisector model that incorporates the input-output structure of the economy. Analyzing data from 1957 to 2016, we find that increasing markups account for the majority of the decline. I...

Breadwinner's Burden: The Effect of Financial Concerns on Sleeplessness

By Claire Duquennois and Maulik Jagnani

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that eligible household heads surveyed just after an unconditional cash transfer in Indonesia report a 0.4 standard deviation improvement in sleep quality compared to those surveyed just before, and they pe...

Rational Inattention during a Randomized Controlled Trial

By Bartosz Maćkowiak and Mirko Wiederholt

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

We introduce an information provision experiment into a standard dynamic rational inattention model. We derive analytical results about how the treatment effect varies with characteristics of the environment and the individual. We use these results to dis...

Exploiting or Augmenting Labor?

By Michael Rubens, Yingjie Wu, and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

We show that existing "production approaches" to markdown estimation do not separately identify factor price markdowns from factor-augmenting productivity levels. We propose a method to overcome this challenge and apply it to study the effects of ownershi...

Nonbinary and Transgender Identities and Earnings: Evidence from a National Census

By Christopher S. Carpenter, Donn Feir, Krishna Pendakur, and Casey Warman

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

We provide the first evidence from a large population census on earnings disparities experienced by nonbinary people—individuals who do not exclusively identify as men or women—and transgender people—individuals whose gender differs from their sex a...

Minority Salience and Criminal Justice Decisions

By Kyra Hanemaaijer, Nadine Ketel, and Olivier Marie

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

Decision-makers can exhibit biases when they overemphasize particularly salient features under limited attention. We exploit a sudden salience shock involving individuals of Moroccan descent to examine biases within the Dutch criminal justice system. The ...

Substitution Bias and Fixed-Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models

By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Benjamin K. Johannsen

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

This paper compares measured inflation in true and fixed-weight price indices. We construct model-based inflation measures in time-dependent pricing models that are analogous to measures of inflation in the data—for example, the consumer price index. In...

On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

By Jonathan Chiu and Cyril Monnet

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity or singleness of money. We explore this view in a stylized model where programmable money arises endogenously, and differently programmed monies have varying liquidit...

Front Matter

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

How Do Central Banks Control Inflation? A Guide for the Perplexed

By Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis

Journal of Economic Literature, March 2026

Central banks have a primary goal of price stability. They pursue it using tools that include the interest they pay on reserves, the size and the composition of their balance sheet, and the dividends they distribute to the fiscal authority. We describe th...