Rainer Kotschy on population aging and economic growth

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Will smaller working-age populations slow economic growth?

Age limits for judges

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Do mandatory retirement policies for judges improve the performance of US courts?

Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics

By Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook, and Anthony Heyes

American Economic Review, November 2020

The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD). Applying multiple approaches to over ...

Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics: Comment

By Sebastian Kranz and Peter Pütz

American Economic Review, September 2022

Brodeur, Cook, and Heyes (2020) study hypothesis tests from economic articles and find evidence for p-hacking and publication bias, in particular for instrumental variable and difference-in-difference studies. When adjusting for rounding errors (introduci...

Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics: Reply

By Abel Brodeur, Nikolai Cook, and Anthony Heyes

American Economic Review, September 2022

In Brodeur, Cook, and Heyes (2020) we present evidence that instrumental variable (and to a lesser extent difference-in-difference) articles are more p-hacked than randomized controlled trial and regression discontinuity design articles. We also find no e...

When Does Regulation Distort Costs? Lessons from Fuel Procurement in US Electricity Generation

By Steve Cicala

American Economic Review, January 2015

This paper evaluates changes in fuel procurement practices by coal and gas-fired power plants in the United States following state-level legislation that ended cost-of-service regulation of electricity generation. I find that deregulated plants substantia...

When Does Regulation Distort Costs? Lessons from Fuel Procurement in US Electricity Generation: Comment

By Jin Soo Han, Jean-François Houde, Arthur A. van Benthem, and Jose Miguel Abito

American Economic Review, April 2021

We revisit one of the results in Cicala (2015) and show that the previously estimated large and significant effects of US electricity restructuring on fuel procurement are not robust to the presence of outliers. Using methodologies from the robust statist...

When Does Regulation Distort Costs? Lessons from Fuel Procurement in US Electricity Generation: Reply

By Steve Cicala

American Economic Review, April 2021

The average effect of deregulatory policies on fuel prices at coal-fired power plants is strongly influenced by plants that were initially paying the highest prices for fuel. Primary sources document that these plants were locked into long-term, high-cost...

Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Reply

By James Feyrer, Erin Mansur, and Bruce Sacerdote

American Economic Review, June 2020

Measuring the geographic spillovers from an economic shock remains a challenging econometric problem. In Feyrer, Mansur, and Sacerdote (2017) we study the propagation of positive shocks from the recent boom in oil and gas production in the United States...

Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution: Comment

By Alexander G. James and Brock Smith

American Economic Review, June 2020

Feyrer, Mansur, and Sacerdote (2017) estimates the spatial dispersion of the effects of the recent shale-energy boom by unconditionally regressing income and employment on energy production at various levels of geographic aggregation. However, producing c...

Geographic Dispersion of Economic Shocks: Evidence from the Fracking Revolution

By James Feyrer, Erin T. Mansur, and Bruce Sacerdote

American Economic Review, April 2017

We track the geographic and temporal propagation of local economic shocks from new oil and gas production generated by hydrofracturing. Each million dollars of new production produces $80,000 in wage income and $132,000 in royalty and business income with...

Call For Papers: Coevolution of Financial and Technological Innovations

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May 26, 2023

Call for Papers: The Coevolution of Financial and Technological Innovations, Research Policy Special Issue .

Detecting Potential Overbilling in Medicare Reimbursement via Hours Worked

By Hanming Fang and Qing Gong

American Economic Review, February 2017

We propose a novel and easy-to-implement approach to detect potential overbilling based on the hours worked implied by the service codes which physicians submit to Medicare. Using the Medicare Part B Fee-for-Service (FFS) Physician Utilization and Payment...

Detecting Potential Overbilling in Medicare Reimbursement via Hours Worked: Comment

By Brett Matsumoto

American Economic Review, December 2020

Fang and Gong (2017) develop a procedure to detect potential overbilling of Medicare by physicians. In their empirical analysis, they use aggregated claims data that can overstate the number of services performed due to features of Medicare billing. In th...

Detecting Potential Overbilling in Medicare Reimbursement via Hours Worked: Reply

By Hanming Fang and Qing Gong

American Economic Review, December 2020

Matsumoto (2020) pointed out data and coding errors in Fang and Gong (2017). We show that these errors have limited impacts: all qualitative findings remain after correcting them. Matsumoto also discussed potential service overcounting in the aggregated u...

Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy

By Derek Lemoine and Ivan Rudik

American Economic Review, October 2017

Common views hold that the efficient way to limit warming to a chosen level is to price carbon emissions at a rate that increases exponentially. We show that this Hotelling tax on carbon emissions is actually inefficient. The least-cost policy path takes ...

Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy: Comment

By Linus Mattauch, H. Damon Matthews, Richard Millar, Armon Rezai, Susan Solomon, and Frank Venmans

American Economic Review, April 2020

Lemoine and Rudik (2017) argues that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions, due to supposed inertia in the climate system's response to emissions. This conclusion rests upon misunderstanding the relevant earth system modeling: there is no sub...

Steering the Climate System: Using Inertia to Lower the Cost of Policy: Reply

By Derek Lemoine and Ivan Rudik

American Economic Review, April 2020

Mattauch et al. (2020) claims that the quantitative conclusions in Lemoine and Rudik (2017)—henceforth, LR17—are not robust to using a climate model consistent with recent scientific results. We observe that LR17 in fact analyzes an extension to a mor...

Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from US Presidential Elections

By Alan D. Crane, Andrew Koch, and Leming Lin

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2024

Despite the economic importance of the US stock market, there is strikingly little evidence of its impact on elections. Using county-level variation in stock market participation, we document the impact of market returns on election outcomes. High-partici...

Race and the Mismeasure of School Quality

By Joshua Angrist, Peter Hull, Parag A. Pathak, and Christopher R. Walters

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2024

In large urban districts, schools enrolling more White students tend to have higher performance ratings. We use an instrumental variables strategy leveraging centralized school assignment to explore this relationship. Estimates from Denver and New York Ci...