Front Matter

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2019

Identifying Industry Margins with Price Constraints: Structural Estimation on Pharmaceuticals

By Pierre Dubois and Laura Lasio

American Economic Review, December 2018

We develop a structural model to investigate the effects of pharmaceutical price regulation on demand and on manufacturers' price-setting behavior in France. We estimate price-cost margins in a regulated market with price constraints and infer whether the...

Liquidity Sentiments

By Vladimir Asriyan, William Fuchs, and Brett Green

American Economic Review, November 2019

We develop a rational theory of liquidity sentiments in which the market outcome in any given period depends on agents' expectations about market conditions in future periods. Our theory is based on the interaction between adverse selection and resale c...

Collective Choice in Dynamic Public Good Provision

By T. Renee Bowen, George Georgiadis, and Nicolas S. Lambert

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2019

Two heterogeneous agents contribute over time to a joint project and collectively decide its scale. A larger scale requires greater cumulative effort and delivers higher benefits upon completion. We show that the efficient agent prefers a smaller scale,...

Bayesian Identification: A Theory for State-Dependent Utilities

By Jay Lu

American Economic Review, September 2019

We provide a revealed preference methodology for identifying beliefs and utilities that can vary across states. A notion of comparative informativeness is introduced that is weaker than the standard Blackwell ranking. We show that beliefs and state-depend...

Estimating Adjustment Frictions Using Nonlinear Budget Sets: Method and Evidence from the Earnings Test

By Alexander M. Gelber, Damon Jones, and Daniel W. Sacks

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, January 2020

We introduce a method for estimating the cost of adjusting earnings, as well as the earnings elasticity with respect to the net-of-tax share. Our method uses information on bunching in the earnings distribution at convex budget set kinks before and after ...

Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge

By Stefano Eusepi and Bruce Preston

American Economic Review, September 2018

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate d...

Market Failure in Kidney Exchange

By Nikhil Agarwal, Itai Ashlagi, Eduardo Azevedo, Clayton R. Featherstone, and Ömer Karaduman

American Economic Review, November 2019

We show that kidney exchange markets suffer from market failures whose remedy could increase transplants by 30 to 63 percent. First, we document that the market is fragmented and inefficient; most transplants are arranged by hospitals instead of national ...

The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Deviations from Covered Interest Parity

By Stefan Avdjiev, Wenxin Du, Cathérine Koch, and Hyun Song Shin

American Economic Review: Insights, September 2019

We document a triangular relationship in that a stronger dollar goes hand in hand with larger deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) and contractions of cross-border bank lending in dollars. We argue that underpinning the triangle is the role of th...

Front Matter

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, October 2019

Dynamic Non-monetary Incentives

By Daniel Bird and Alexander Frug

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, November 2019

We study a principal-agent interaction where investments and rewards arrive stochastically over time and are privately observed by the agent. Investments (costly for the agent, beneficial for the principal) can be concealed by the agent. Rewards (benefici...

Predicting and Understanding Initial Play

By Drew Fudenberg and Annie Liang

American Economic Review, December 2019

We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads...

Proposition 13: An Equilibrium Analysis

By Ayşe İmrohoroğlu, Kyle Matoba, and Şelale Tüzel

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, April 2018

There are many federal, state, and local laws that distort housing decisions and prices. However, it is often difficult to tease out the quantitative impact of such policies. In this paper, we examine the implications of one of the most significant tax ch...

Honesty via Choice-Matching

By Jakša Cvitanić, Dražen Prelec, Blake Riley, and Benjamin Tereick

American Economic Review: Insights, September 2019

We introduce choice-matching, a class of mechanisms for eliciting honest responses to a multiple choice question (MCQ), as might appear in a market research study, opinion poll, or economics experiment. Under choice-matching, respondents are compensated t...

Front Matter

American Economic Review, February 2019

Correcting for Misreporting of Government Benefits

By Nikolas Mittag

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2019

Data linkage studies often document, but do not remedy, severe survey errors. To improve survey estimates despite restricted linked data access, this paper develops a convenient and general estimation method that combines public use data with conditional ...

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

By Wataru Miyamoto, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Dmitriy Sergeyev

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2018

Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 i...

Neutral Bargaining in Financial Over-The-Counter Markets

By Jin Yeub Kim

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2019

I study bargaining over prices between two investors in financial over-the-counter markets with asymmetric information. I focus on environments in which an asset owner has private information about both her liquidity state and asset quality, and so a buye...

Randomizing Endowments: An Experimental Study of Rational Expectations and Reference-Dependent Preferences

By Annette Cerulli-Harms, Lorenz Goette, and Charles Sprenger

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2019

We test expectations-based reference dependence in market experiments with probabilistic forced exchange. Koszegi and Rabin (2006) predict that when the probability of forced exchange increases, individuals cannot expect to stick with the status quo, an...

Fairness and Frictions: The Impact of Unequal Raises on Quit Behavior

By Arindrajit Dube, Laura Giuliano, and Jonathan Leonard

American Economic Review, February 2019

We analyze how separations responded to arbitrary differences in own and peer wages at a large US retailer. Regression-discontinuity estimates imply large causal effects of own-wages on separations, and on quits in particular. However, this own-wage respo...