Negative Nominal Interest Rates

By Marco Bassetto

American Economic Review, May 2004

The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap

By Alan J. Auerbach and Maurice Obstfeld

American Economic Review, March 2005

Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even...

Bond Risk Premia

By John H. Cochrane and Monika Piazzesi

American Economic Review, March 2005

We study time variation in expected excess bond returns. We run regressions of one-year excess returns on initial forward rates. We find that a single factor, a single tent-shaped linear combination of forward rates, predicts excess returns on one- to fiv...

The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models

By Refet S. Gürkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson

American Economic Review, March 2005

The Volume-Outcome Effect, Scale Economies, and Learning-by-Doing

By Martin Gaynor, Harald Seider, and William B. Vogt

American Economic Review, May 2005

Neuroeconomic Foundations of Trust and Social Preferences: Initial Evidence

By Ernst Fehr, Urs Fischbacher, and Michael Kosfeld

American Economic Review, May 2005

Fear and Greed in Financial Markets: A Clinical Study of Day-Traders

By Andrew W. Lo, Dmitry V. Repin, and Brett N. Steenbarger

American Economic Review, May 2005

A Kidney Exchange Clearinghouse in New England

By Alvin E. Roth, Tayfun Sönmez, and M. Utku Ünver

American Economic Review, May 2005

Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics

By Francis X. Diebold, Monika Piazzesi, and Glenn D. Rudebusch

American Economic Review, May 2005

Heterogeneous Patience and the Term Structure of Real Interest Rates

By Yvan Lengwiler

American Economic Review, June 2005

Racial Discrimination in Labor Markets with Posted Wage Offers

By Kevin Lang, Michael Manove, and William T. Dickens

American Economic Review, September 2005

The Macroeconomics of Child Labor Regulation

By Matthias Doepke and Fabrizio Zilibotti

American Economic Review, December 2005

We develop a positive theory of the adoption of child labor laws. Workers who compete with children in the labor market support a child labor ban, unless their own working children provide a large fraction of family income. Fertility decisions lock agents...

Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?

By Christopher A. Sims and Tao Zha

American Economic Review, March 2006

A multivariate regime-switching model for monetary policy is confronted with U.S. data. The best fit allows time variation in disturbance variances only. With coefficients allowed to change, the best fit is with change only in the monetary policy rule and...

The Impact of Group Membership on Cooperation and Norm Enforcement: Evidence Using Random Assignment to Real Social Groups

By Lorenz Goette, David Huffman, and Stephan Meier

American Economic Review, May 2006

Gender and Performance: Evidence from School Assignment by Randomized Lottery

By Justine S. Hastings, Thomas J. Kane, and Douglas O. Staiger

American Economic Review, May 2006

China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?

By Ronald McKinnon

American Economic Review, May 2006

People Flows in Globalization

By Richard B. Freeman

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2006

The policy debate over globalization in the past decade has largely bypassed the international mobility of labor. Restrict trade and cries of protectionism resound. Suggest linking labor standards to trade and it's protectionism in disguise. Limit capital...

The Japanese Saving Rate

By Kaiji Chen, Ayşe İmrohoroğlu, and Selahattin İmrohoroğlu

American Economic Review, December 2006

Despite much work, economists have not been able to quantitatively account for the differences in the Japanese and U.S. saving rates after World War II. In this paper, we show that the use of actual Japanese total factor productivity growth rates in a sta...

Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates

By Christian Hellwig, Arijit Mukherji, and Aleh Tsyvinski

American Economic Review, December 2006

We develop a model of currency crises, in which traders are heterogeneously informed, and interest rates are endogenously determined in a noisy rational expectations equilibrium. In our model, multiple equilibria result from distinct roles an interest ...

The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk

By Hanno Lustig and Adrien Verdelhan

American Economic Review, March 2007

Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Domestic investor...