Interpreting Tests of School VAM Validity
- (pp. 388-92)
AbstractWe develop over-identification tests that use admissions lotteries to assess the predictive value of regression-based value-added models (VAMs). These tests have degrees of freedom equal to the number of quasi-experiments available to estimate school effects. By contrast, previously implemented VAM validation strategies look at a single restriction only, sometimes said to measure forecast bias. Tests of forecast bias may be misleading when the test statistic is constructed from many lotteries or quasi-experiments, some of which have weak first stage effects on school attendance. The theory developed here is applied to data from the Charlotte-Mecklenberg School district analyzed by Deming (2014).
CitationAngrist, Joshua, Peter Hull, Parag Pathak, and Christopher Walters. 2016. "Interpreting Tests of School VAM Validity." American Economic Review, 106 (5): 388-92. DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161080
- H75 State and Local Government: Health; Education; Welfare; Public Pensions
- I21 Analysis of Education