Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth
American Economic Review
vol. 106,
no. 5, May 2016
(pp. 68-71)
Abstract
This comment assesses the claim of The Rise and Fall of American Growth that for coming decades, growth in US TFP will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade. While predicting future technological advance is difficult, there are indications that Gordon may actually be too optimistic on future TFP growth. The share of output from manufacturing, which still generates the majority of R&D expenditures, and has historically more rapid TFP growth, will continue to fall. There are substantial obstacles to rapid TFP advance in much of the rest of the economy: construction, transport, health care and other services.Citation
Clark, Gregory. 2016. "Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth." American Economic Review, 106 (5): 68-71. DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161072Additional Materials
JEL Classification
- E23 Macroeconomics: Production
- N11 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
- N12 Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- N71 Economic History: Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
- N72 Economic History: Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
- O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
- O47 Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence