Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
- (pp. 924-37)
AbstractWe report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and "error" elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: "yes." We impose a large increase in liquidity and dividend uncertainty to shock the environment of experienced subjects who have converged to equilibrium, and this treatment rekindles a bubble. However, in replications of that same challenging environment across three experience levels, we discover that the environment yields a rare residual tendency to bubble even in the third experience session. Therefore, a caveat must be placed on the effect of twice-experienced subjects in asset markets: in order for price bubbles to be extinguished, the environment in which the participants engage in exchange must be stationary and bounded by a range of parameters. Experience, including possible "error" elimination, is not robust to major new environment changes in determining the characteristics of a price bubble.
Citation2008. "Thar She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?." American Economic Review, 98(3): 924-37. DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.3.924
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
- C91 Design of Experiments: Laboratory, Individual