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  3. American Economic Review
  4. September 2020
  5. Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance

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Abstract

I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) forward guidance language shapes the private sector's responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemployment rate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinations, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path had the opposite effects. These results suggest that forward guidance that emphasizes economic outlook risks causes stronger information effects than forward guidance that emphasizes policy inclinations.

Citation

Lunsford, Kurt G. 2020. "Policy Language and Information Effects in the Early Days of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance." American Economic Review, 110 (9): 2899-2934. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181721

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
  • E52 Monetary Policy
  • E58 Central Banks and Their Policies
  • E66 General Outlook and Conditions