Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains
AbstractInvestors' subjective capital gains expectations are a key element explaining stock price fluctuations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism (pessimism) at market peaks (troughs). We formally reject the hypothesis that this is compatible with rational expectations. We then incorporate subjective price beliefs with such properties into a standard asset-pricing model with rational agents (internal rationality). The model gives rise to boom-bust cycles that temporarily delink stock prices from fundamentals and quantitatively replicates many asset-pricing moments. In particular, it matches the observed strong positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and survey return expectations, which cannot be matched by rational expectations.
CitationAdam, Klaus, Albert Marcet, and Johannes Beutel. 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains." American Economic Review, 107 (8): 2352-2408. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20140205
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D84 Expectations; Speculations
- G12 Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading