Measuring the Growth of Skills

By James Heckman, Haihan Tian, Zijian Zhang, and Jin Zhou

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper discusses a fundamental problem in measuring the growth of knowledge and comparing the skills of people. New skills emerge that are not just more of the previously acquired skills. Psychometric convention forces these skills into arbitrarily co...

How Universal Preschool Shapes Boys’ and Girls’ Outcomes in Poor and Better-Off Households: Evidence from Mexico

By Jere R. Behrman, Susan W. Parker, Petra E. Todd, and Weilong Zhang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This research evaluates Mexico’s 2002 universal preschool mandate using a local difference-in-differences design to isolate policy impacts from school-entry-age effects. Although the mandate significantly boosted cognitive test scores, particularly for ...

The Power of Anecdotes

By Arjada Bardhi and Nina Bobkova

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Anecdotes pervade public discourse. In a sender-receiver framework, we formalize why anecdotes persuade even when an aggregate statistic—rather than individual cases—is what matters. A single anecdote reveals information about similar cases, shifting ...

From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions

By Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu, and Xinrui Zhou

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time Automatic Identification System maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data....

Who Is Biased? Heterogeneity in Gender Bias in Evaluations

By Stephanie El Khoury

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Professor review websites are widely used by students but may transmit biased information. This paper examines who generates gender bias in teaching evaluations. Using scraped instructor data from RateMyProfessor.com, I document descriptive evidence of a ...

Recent Trends in Labor Supply Decisions among Married Couples in the United States

By Seonyoung Park and Nicole B. Simpson

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper examines changes in joint labor supply among married US households during the period of trend reversal in aggregate labor supply from the late 1990s to the early 2020s. Married women, particularly those with children, exhibit the most significa...

Beyond Time and Money: Parental Occupation and Early Childhood Development

By Hyun Soo Suh

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This paper examines how parental occupation shapes early cognitive and noncognitive child development. Using the Millennium Cohort Study and the British Household Panel Survey, I document that parents allocate time in home production and market work diffe...

Digital Incentives in Surveys: Response Rates and Sociodemographic Effects in a Large-Scale Parental Nudge Intervention

By Kalena E. Cortes, Brian Holzman, Melissa Gentry, and Miranda Lambert

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

This study examines how digital incentives influence survey participation and engagement in a large randomized controlled trial of parents across six school districts. We test how incentive amount and information about vendor options affect response behav...

The Harder They Fall: Diverging Black-White Wealth in Older Age Using the Health and Retirement Study

By Teegawende H. Zeida, William A. Darity Jr., Samuel L. Myers Jr., and Illenin O. Kondo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we document that wealthier Black households experience slower wealth accumulation compared to White households with similar, higher initial wealth. Racial wealth accumulation gaps widen racial disparities in we...

Asian “Chilling Effect” during the Pandemic: What Can We Learn from Reported Health Status?

By Abdihafit Shaeye and Ruth Uwaifo Oyelere

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

There is documented evidence that the origin of the COVID-19 virus in Asia led to increased discrimination and xenophobia toward individuals of Asian descent, resulting in an unprecedented rise in anti-Asian hate during the pandemic. Using a difference-in...

Social Security and Retirement of Older Blacks and Hispanics

By Emma Aguila and Zeewan Lee

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Little research has examined how income inequalities by race/ethnic origin shape retirement decisions. Using Health and Retirement Study data from 2000–2020 linked to restricted Social Security Administration records, we calculate Social Security wealth...

Improved Market Access and Indigenous Land Loss: Evidence from the Nineteenth-Century US Railroad Expansion

By Jeff Chan, Azim Essaji, and Rob Gillezeau

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We study the effects of colonial market access on the loss of lands for Indigenous nations, using the rapid expansion of the US railroad network in the nineteenth century as a quasi-natural experiment. We find that increased market access to Indigenous ho...

Black-White Differences in Income Tax Liability

By William Gale, Oliver Hall, and John Sabelhaus

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

The federal income tax does not explicitly discriminate by race or ethnicity but can still generate disparate outcomes when a group’s activity correlates with determinants of tax liability. Using Survey of Consumer Finances data and NBER’s TAXSIM mode...

The Impact of Immigration Policies on Reentry Rates among Deportees

By Eunsik Chang, Heriberto Gonzalez-Lozano, and Sandra Orozco-Aleman

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We examine whether US interior immigration enforcement policies deter deportees from reentering the United States and whether these effects vary by individual characteristics. Using data from the Mexican Survey of Migration to the Northern Border and expl...

Resilient Finance, Stratified Costs: Unmasking Racial Disparities in Disaster-Induced Bank Closures

By Isaac Marcelin, Wei Sun, and Gaye-Del Lo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Climate disasters and bank branch closures can reshape mortgage credit without obvious changes in headline approval rates. Using Home Mortgage Disclosure Act applications matched to county disasters (SHELDUS) and branch closures (S&P Global), we estimate ...

President's Foreword

By Katharine G. Abraham

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Editors’ Introduction

By William R. Johnson

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

The Effects of Racial Segregation on Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from Historical Railroad Placement

By Eric Chyn, Kareem Haggag, and Bryan A. Stuart

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, April 2026

This paper provides new evidence on the causal impacts of citywide racial segregation on intergenerational mobility. We use an instrumental variable approach that relies on plausibly exogenous variation in segregation due to the arrangement of railroad tr...

Some Macroeconomic Evidence on Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy

By Gregory Casey, Yang Gao, and Peter K. Kruse-Andersen

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

We investigate the aggregate elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy using time-series data from the United States. To match the data, a standard macro climate-economy model requires an elasticity that is close to one in the long run but...

Organizing Production across Borders in a Time of Uncertainty

By Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, and Haruka Takayama

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2026

Intensifying geopolitical turmoil has revealed the fragility of international production networks. This paper demonstrates how multinational firms are redefining their organizational boundaries by examining cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as a...