Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes

By Vaibhav Anand

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2025

Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the United States, I sh...

The Semblance of Success in Nudging Consumers to Pay Down Credit Card Debt

By Benedict Guttman-Kenney, Paul Adams, Stefan Hunt, David Laibson, Neil Stewart, and Jesse Leary

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2025

We test a nudge in a field experiment on credit cards. The nudge shrouds the autopay enrollment option for cardholders to automatically pay exactly the credit card minimum payment each month. After six months, the nudge decreases the fraction of cardholde...

Do Medical Treatments Work for Work? Evidence from Breast Cancer Patients

By N. Meltem Daysal, William N. Evans, Mikkel Hasse Pedersen, and Mircea Trandafir

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2025

We investigate the effects of radiation therapy on the mortality and economic outcomes of breast cancer patients. We implement a 2SLS strategy within a difference-in-difference framework exploiting variation in treatment stemming from a medical guideline ...

Social Welfare Portability and Migration: Evidence from India's Public Distribution System

By Travis Baseler, Ambar Narayan, Odyssia Ng, and Sutirtha Sinha Roy

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2025

This paper studies a new program designed to make food entitlements portable throughout India. We first characterize the state of food entitlement portability using mystery shoppers and surveys of migrants and distributors. We then inform households about...

Do Tuition Subsidies Raise Political Participation?

By Daniel Firoozi and Igor Geyn

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, November 2025

Civic externalities motivate education expenditures, but estimates of the civic returns to large-scale education subsidies are scarce. We use 16 million financial aid applications and a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate how a tuition-free c...

The stalled progress of gender equality in the US labor market

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Life cycle profiles of wages help shed light on the economic progress of women relative to men.

Integrating Out Natural Disaster Shocks

By Franziska Bremus and Malte Rieth

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Natural disasters are largely unpredictable and unrelated to the state of financial integration. We doc...

Refugees’ Economic Integration

By Dany Bahar, Rebecca Brough, and Giovanni Peri

Journal of Economic Literature

Refugees are international migrants escaping persecution and crises, whose economic success in their countries of destination is threatened by lack of access to labor and credit markets, limited information on employment opportunities, and loss of human c...

Front Matter

American Economic Review, November 2025

Just a Few Seeds More: The Value of Network Data for Diffusion

By Mohammad Akbarpour, Suraj Malladi, and Amin Saberi

American Economic Review, November 2025

Identifying the optimal set of individuals to first receive information ("seeds") in a social network to maximize expected diffusion is a widely studied question in many settings. Several studies propose network-centrality-based heuristics to select seeds...

Default Options and Retirement Saving Dynamics

By Taha Choukhmane

American Economic Review, November 2025

Using data from over 100 US retirement plans and a representative UK panel, I document the impact of auto-enrollment (AE) on retirement savings at different horizons. I replicate the impact of AE on participation and contributions in the short run (at 12 ...

A Preferred-Habitat Model of Term Premia, Exchange Rates, and Monetary Policy Spillovers

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Walker Ray, and Dimitri Vayanos

American Economic Review, November 2025

We develop a two-country model in which currency and bond markets are populated by different investor clienteles, and segmentation is partly overcome by arbitrageurs with limited capital. Risk premia in our model are time-varying, connected across markets...

Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillovers, and Industrial Quality Upgrading: Evidence from the Chinese Auto Industry

By Jie Bai, Panle Jia Barwick, Shengmao Cao, and Shanjun Li

American Economic Review, November 2025

This paper studies the impact of quid pro quo (technology for market access) in facilitating knowledge spillovers and quality upgrading in the Chinese automobile industry. The identification strategy exploits within-product quality variation across a rich...

Nonlinear Pricing and Misallocation

By Gideon Bornstein and Alessandra Peter

American Economic Review, November 2025

This paper studies the effect of nonlinear pricing on markups and misallocation. In a general equilibrium model in which firms are allowed to set a quantity-dependent pricing schedule, markup heterogeneity is not a sign of misallocation. Instead, we point...

Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-Out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy

By Elliot Anenberg, Tess Scharlemann, and Eileen van Straelen

American Economic Review, November 2025

We show that the strong negative effect of higher mortgage rates on cash-out refinancing reflects substitution into other borrowing products, not large changes in total new household borrowing. We exploit plausibly exogenous changes in interest rates due ...

International Trade Responses to Labor Market Regulations

By Mathilde Muñoz

American Economic Review, November 2025

This paper demonstrates that labor market regulations, such as minimum wages or payroll taxes, shape trade competition in labor-intensive activities. I exploit data from a large European trade program where firms from different countries supply labor serv...

The Trade-Off between Flexibility and Robustness in Instrumental Variables Analysis

By Ben Deaner

American Economic Review, November 2025

In additive instrumental variables models, the robustness to some failure of instrumental validity or additive separability depends on the strength of a priori restrictions on the structural relationship between outcomes and treatments. I provide theoreti...

Distinguishing Causes of Neighborhood Racial Change: A Nearest-Neighbor Design

By Patrick Bayer, Marcus Casey, W. Ben McCartney, John Orellana-Li, and Calvin Zhang

American Economic Review, November 2025

We study neighborhood choice using a novel research design that contrasts the move rate of homeowners who receive a new different-race neighbor immediately next-door versus slightly farther away on the same block. This approach isolates a component of pre...

Managers and Public Hospital Performance

By Pablo Muñoz and Cristóbal Otero

American Economic Review, November 2025

We study whether the quality of managers can affect public service provision in the context of public health. Using novel data from public hospitals in Chile, we show how the introduction of a competitive recruitment system and better pay for public hospi...

Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications

By Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu, and Joris Tielens

American Economic Review, November 2025

We develop a bottom-up approach to estimate the slope of the primitive form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, which features marginal cost as the real activity variable. Using quarterly micro data on prices, costs, and output, we estimate dynamic pass-...