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Did the Paycheck Protection Program Help Small Businesses? Evidence from Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities

By Sumit Agarwal, Brent W. Ambrose, Luis A. Lopez, and Xue Xiao

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2024

In this study, we examine the broader economic effects of the US federal government's Paycheck Protection Program by focusing on the performance of securitized commercial mortgages. We provide novel evidence for spillover effects of government interventio...

Revealing Choice Bracketing

By Andrew Ellis and David J. Freeman

American Economic Review, September 2024

Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly bracket, but existing designs do not test it. We design a novel experiment an...

Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock

By Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol

American Economic Review, September 2024

Poor entrepreneurs must frequently choose between business investment and children's education. To examine this trade-off, we exploit experimental variation in short-run microenterprise growth among a sample of Indian households and track schooling and bu...

In-Kind Transfers as Insurance

By Lucie Gadenne, Samuel Norris, Monica Singhal, and Sandip Sukhtankar

American Economic Review, September 2024

Households in developing countries often face variation in the prices of consumption goods. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers will provide insurance benefits against price risk if the covariance between the marginal utility of income...

Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

By Peter Ganong, Fiona Greig, Pascal Noel, Daniel M. Sullivan, and Joseph Vavra

American Economic Review, September 2024

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—b...

Experimentation in Networks

By Simon Board and Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn

American Economic Review, September 2024

We propose a model of strategic experimentation on social networks in which forward-looking agents learn from their own and neighbors' successes. In equilibrium, private discovery is followed by social diffusion. Social learning crowds out own experimenta...

Comparisons of Signals

By Benjamin Brooks, Alexander Frankel, and Emir Kamenica

American Economic Review, September 2024

A signal is a description of an information source that specifies both its correlation with the state and its correlation with other signals. Extending Blackwell (1953), we characterize when one signal is more valuable than another regardless of preferenc...

Zooming to Class? Experimental Evidence on College Students' Online Learning during COVID-19

By Michael S. Kofoed, Lucas Gebhart, Dallas Gilmore, and Ryan Moschitto

American Economic Review: Insights, September 2024

One persistent question in higher education is the efficacy of online education. In the fall of 2020, we randomized 551 West Point students in a required introductory economics course across 12 instructors to either an online or in-person class as a respo...

Nonrepresentativeness in Population Health Research: Evidence from a COVID-19 Antibody Study

By Deniz Dutz, Michael Greenstone, Ali Hortaçsu, Santiago Lacouture, Magne Mogstad, Azeem M. Shaikh, Alexander Torgovitsky, and Winnie van Dijk

American Economic Review: Insights, September 2024

We analyze representativeness in a COVID-19 serological study with randomized participation incentives. We find large participation gaps by race and income when incentives are lower. High incentives increase participation rates for all groups but increase...