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Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence

By Lukas Hoesch, Barbara Rossi, and Tatevik Sekhposyan

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023

Does the Federal Reserve have an "information advantage" in forecasting macroeconomic variables beyond what is known to private sector forecasters? And are market participants reacting only to monetary policy shocks or also to information on the future st...

How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial

By Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Maarten van Rooij

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023

We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect consumption decisions. ...

Human Capital Accumulation at Work: Estimates for the World and Implications for Development

By Remi Jedwab, Paul Romer, Asif M. Islam, and Roberto Samaniego

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023

We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumula...

The Intensive Margin in Trade: How Big and How Important?

By Ana M. Fernandes, Peter J. Klenow, Sergii Meleshchuk, Martha Denisse Pierola, and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023

In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elasticity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of...

The Causal Effects of Lockdown Policies on Health and Macroeconomic Outcomes

By Jonas E. Arias, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, and Minchul Shin

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, July 2023

We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying pa...