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Undisclosed Debt Sustainability

By Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Over the past decade, non-Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have ...

Hidden Defaults

By Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

China's lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China's loans, the associated defaults remain "hidden," as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. We construct an...

Hidden Debt

By Bulent Guler, Yasin Kürşat Önder, and Temel Taskin

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We study the role of transparency in debt and default dynamics in a quantitative sovereign default model augmented with asymmetric information. We assume that the sovereign debt portfolio is not transparent and part of the debt is not observable to lender...

Estimating the Disparate Cumulative Impact of the Pandemic in Administrative Unemployment Insurance Data

By Alex Bell, T. J. Hedin, Peter Mannino, Roozbeh Moghadam, Carl Romer, Geoffrey C. Schnorr, and Till von Wachter

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

To better measure the full extent of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on workers and the labor market, this paper estimates three measures of the cumulative impact of the pandemic on workers across intensive and extensive margins using longitudinal admin...

Early Withdrawal of Pandemic Unemployment Insurance: Effects on Employment and Earnings

By Kyle Coombs, Arindrajit Dube, Calvin Jahnke, Raymond Kluender, Suresh Naidu, and Michael Stepner

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We examine the effects of the sudden withdrawal of expanded pandemic unemployment benefits in June 2021 using anonymized bank transaction data for 16,253 individuals receiving unemployment insurance (UI) in April 2021. Comparing the difference-in-differen...