Should We Have Automatic Triggers for Unemployment Benefit Duration and How Costly Would They Be?

By Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Peter Ganong, and Jonathan Gruber

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We model automatic trigger policies for unemployment insurance by simulating a weekly panel of individual labor market histories, grouped by state. We reach three conclusions: (i) policies designed to trigger immediately at the onset of a recession result...

Global Life Insurers during a Low Interest Rate Environment

By Ralph S. J. Koijen and Motohiro Yogo

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Life insurers' business model has changed with the growth of insurance products with minimum return guarantees that are exposed to market and interest risks. The interest risk exposure of US and European insurers increased in the low-rate environments aft...

Shadow Bank Distress and Household Debt Relief: Evidence from the CARES Act

By Susan Cherry, Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Shadow banks service a substantial portion of household debt in the United States, including half of residential mortgages. They also funded and implemented a large portion of the CARES Act-driven debt relief. Despite uniform policy and similar borrowers,...

Weak Corporate Insolvency Rules: The Missing Driver of Zombie Lending

By Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

"Zombie lending"—lending to less-productive firms at subsidized rates—can help banks with misaligned incentives in the short run, but it prolongs economic downturns. We propose that inefficient resolution of insolvency is a significant contributor to ...

Masks and Trolleys in San Francisco during the 1918 Influenza Epidemic

By François R. Velde

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

I analyze daily data on deaths and on mobility (ridership of electric railways) in the city of San Francisco in 1918−1919, using a model that combines a standard epidemiological component, agents who choose economic activity taking infection risk into a...

Boomtowns: Local Shocks and Inequality in 1920s California

By Sarah Quincy and Rowena Gray

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

As the United States economy grew in the 1920s, both wealth and income inequality rose as well. California land values were especially volatile as a variety of shocks buffeted the state. This paper summarizes how these local booms affected housing inequal...

Immigration Shocks and Marriage Market Sorting

By Katherine Eriksson, Addison Lake, and Gregory T. Niemesh

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Recent work shows a puzzle in the early twentieth century United States: as intergenerational mobility decreased, assortative mating increased. We argue that these two facts are causally related by using a shock to intergenerational mobility caused by fal...

Transportation Revolution: The Car in the 1920s

By Shari Eli, Joshua K. Hausman, and Paul W. Rhode

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

In 1919, there were 6 cars for every 100 people in the United States; in 1929, there were 19. The diffusion of the car transformed daily life and had large economic effects. Data on car registrations at the state level help us to understand the correlates...

Continuous Gender Identity and Economics

By Anne Ardila Brenøe, Lea Heursen, Eva Ranehill, and Roberto A. Weber

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Economic research on gender largely focuses on biological sex, the binary classification as either a "man" or "woman." We investigate the value of incorporating a measure of continuous gender identity (CGI) into economics by exploring whether it explains ...

Integration Costs and Missing Women in Firms around the World

By Conrad Miller, Jennifer Peck, and Mehmet Seflek

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Where social norms favor gender segregation, firms may find it costly to employ both men and women. If the costs of integration are largely fixed, firms will integrate only if their expected number of female employees under integration exceeds some thresh...

Hacking Gender Stereotypes: Girls' Participation in Coding Clubs

By Michela Carlana and Margherita Fort

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Who are the girls who decide to sign up for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) programs and coding clubs? In this paper, we rely on a large set of survey data from students to analyze how female students who apply to coding clubs dif...

Gender Economics and the Meaning of Discrimination

By Shelly Lundberg

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Advances in economics hold much promise for an improved understanding of complex issues concerning gender and gender inequalities. A more realistic economics of choice based on behavioral economics, evidence of social influences on economic outcomes, and ...

Addressing Strategic Uncertainty with Incentives and Information

By Marina Halac, Elliot Lipnowski, and Daniel Rappoport

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

A principal privately contracts with a set of agents who then simultaneously make a binary decision. Each contract specifies an individual allocation and the information the agent is given about a fundamental state and other agents' contracts. We study th...

Efficient Full Implementation via Transfers: Uniqueness and Sensitivity in Symmetric Environments

By Mariann Ollár and Antonio Penta

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We study efficient full implementation via transfers in unique rationalizable strategies in environments that are symmetric in two senses: first, agents display the same total level of preference interdependence; second, types are commonly known to be dra...

Preventing Bottlenecks in Organizations

By Fumitoshi Moriya and Takuro Yamashita

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Organizations may suffer from unforeseen negative shocks, potentially leading to severe bottlenecks. This paper studies an optimal incentive scheme robust to those shocks in the effort induction problem in team production. The optimal scheme under the no-...

Robustness of Rank Independence in Risky Choice

By B. Douglas Bernheim, Rebecca Royer, and Charles Sprenger

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

Bernheim and Sprenger (2020) devise and implement a novel test of rank-dependent probability weighting both in general and as formulated in cumulative prospect theory. They reject both hypotheses decisively. Cumulative prospect theory cannot simultaneousl...

Simplicity and Probability Weighting in Choice under Risk

By Drew Fudenberg and Indira Puri

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We present a speculative application of model estimates from Fudenberg and Puri (2021) to prize-linked savings in South Africa. The models used include one combining simplicity theory (Puri 2018, 2022), a preference for lotteries with fewer possible outco...

Revealed Preferences for Randomization: An Overview

By Marina Agranov and Pietro Ortoleva

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We survey the empirical evidence on subjects' desire to randomize and its relation to stochastic choice. Preferences for randomization are documented by a substantial body of empirical work using different methodologies and in several domains, including o...

Persistent Monetary Policy in a Model with Labor Market Frictions

By Roman Goncharenko and Elizaveta Lukmanova

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

In a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with involuntary unemployment and inflation target shocks, we study the role of labor markets in the transmission of persistent monetary policy shocks that increase households' inflation expectations. The model predicts...

Monetary Policy, Labor Market, and Sectoral Heterogeneity

By Aarti Singh, Jacek Suda, and Anastasia Zervou

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2022

We study the effects of monetary policy on the labor market across different sectors. We find that the employment response is stronger for firms in manufacturing and construction relative to firms in services. The result also holds within small and large ...