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  3. American Economic Review: Insights
  4. December 2022
  5. Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

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Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2–2.2 percent of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical Whites.

Citation

Dahl, Gordon B., Runjing Lu, and William Mullins. 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections." American Economic Review: Insights, 4 (4): 473-90. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210485

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth