Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
AbstractChanges in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2–2.2 percent of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical Whites.
CitationDahl, Gordon B., Runjing Lu, and William Mullins. 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections." American Economic Review: Insights, 4 (4): 473-90. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20210485
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth