Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2
AbstractThis paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the United States, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate, and the planning horizon.
CitationGiannitsarou, Chryssi, Stephen Kissler, and Flavio Toxvaerd. 2021. "Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2." American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (3): 321-38. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200343
- I12 Health Behavior
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts