Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond
American Economic Review
no. 4, September 2000
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime, with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.
Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil.
"Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond."
American Economic Review,
One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
Demographic Trends and Forecasts; General Migration
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development