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  4. May 2020
  5. The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

American Economic Review

ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)

The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization

  • Alex Armand
  • Paul Atwell
  • Joseph F. Gomes
American Economic Review
vol. 110, no. 5, May 2020
(pp. 1395–1429)
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Abstract

We examine the role of FM radio in mitigating violent conflict. We collect original data on radio broadcasts encouraging defections during the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. This constitutes the first quantitative evaluation of an active counterinsurgency policy that encourages defections through radio messages. Exploiting random topography-driven variation in radio coverage along with panel variation at the grid-cell level, we identify the causal effect of messaging on violence. Broadcasting defection messages increases defections and reduces fatalities, violence against civilians, and clashes with security forces. Income shocks have opposing effects on both the conflict and the effectiveness of messaging.

Citation

Armand, Alex, Paul Atwell, and Joseph F. Gomes. 2020. "The Reach of Radio: Ending Civil Conflict through Rebel Demobilization." American Economic Review 110 (5): 1395–1429. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181135

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
  • L82 Entertainment; Media
  • O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements