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  3. American Economic Review
  4. June 2014
  5. Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict

Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict

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Abstract

We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population.

Citation

Crost, Benjamin, Joseph Felter, and Patrick Johnston. 2014. "Aid under Fire: Development Projects and Civil Conflict." American Economic Review, 104 (6): 1833-56. DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.6.1833

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D74 Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
  • F35 Foreign Aid
  • I32 Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
  • O15 Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
  • O17 Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
  • O18 Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
  • O19 International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations