Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy
- (pp. 1071-90)
AbstractThe Bagwell and Staiger (1990) theory of cooperative trade agreements predicts new tariffs (i) increase with imports, (ii) increase with the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticities, and (iii) decrease with the variance of imports. We find US import policy during 1997-2006 to be consistent with this theory. A one standard deviation increase in import growth, the inverse of the sum of the import demand and export supply elasticity, and the standard deviation of import growth changes the probability that the US imposes an antidumping tariff by 35 percent, by 88 percent, and by -76 percent, respectively.
Citation2013. "Self-Enforcing Trade Agreements: Evidence from Time-Varying Trade Policy." American Economic Review, 103(2): 1071-90. DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.2.1071
- F12 Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
- F13 Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F14 Empirical Studies of Trade