Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys
AbstractThis paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.
CitationAnderson, Soren T., Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee, and Richard T. Curtin. 2011. "Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys." American Economic Review, 101 (3): 110-14. DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.3.110
- C53 Forecasting Methods; Simulation Methods
- D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- L71 Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
- Q41 Energy: Demand and Supply
- Q47 Energy Forecasting