We use household data from northeast China to examine the link between investment and land tenure insecurity induced by China's system of village-level land reallocation. We quantify expropriation risk using a hazard analysis of individual plot tenures and incorporate the predicted "hazards of expropriation" into an empirical analysis of plot-level investment. Our focus is on organic fertilizer use, which has long-lasting benefits for soil quality. Although we find that higher expropriation risk significantly reduces application of organic fertilizer, a welfare analysis shows that guaranteeing land tenure in this part of China would yield only minimal efficiency gains.
Jacoby, Hanan G., Guo Li and Scott Rozelle.
2002."Hazards of Expropriation: Tenure Insecurity and Investment in Rural China ."American Economic Review,
92(5): 1420-1447.DOI: 10.1257/000282802762024575