American Economic Review
ISSN 0002-8282 (Print) | ISSN 1944-7981 (Online)
The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth
American Economic Review
vol. 94,
no. 4, September 2004
(pp. 964–990)
Abstract
Robert E. Lucas, Jr. argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible. Subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits, further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter. This paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare, by affecting the growth rate of consumption. I show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption, which can imply substantial welfare effects as Lucas himself observed. Empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial, about two orders of magnitude greater than Lucas' original estimates.Citation
Barlevy, Gadi. 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth." American Economic Review, 94 (4): 964–990. DOI: 10.1257/0002828042002615JEL Classification
- E21 Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E32 Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E63 Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- O41 One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models