Did Austerity Cause Brexit?
AbstractThis paper documents a significant association between the exposure of an individual or area to the UK government's austerity-induced welfare reforms begun in 2010, and the following: the subsequent rise in support for the UK Independence Party, an important correlate of Leave support in the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership; broader individual-level measures of political dissatisfaction; and direct measures of support for Leave. Leveraging data from all UK electoral contests since 2000, along with detailed, individual-level panel data, the findings suggest that the EU referendum could have resulted in a Remain victory had it not been for austerity.
CitationFetzer, Thiemo. 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?" American Economic Review, 109 (11): 3849-86. DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181164
- D72 Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
- F15 Economic Integration
- F60 Economic Impacts of Globalization: General
- H53 National Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
- I38 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs