Front Matter

American Economic Review, June 2024

Welfare Comparisons for Biased Learning

By Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, and Yuhta Ishii

American Economic Review, June 2024

We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases (misspecified Bayesian and some forms of non-Bayesian updating). Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decis...

The Flight to Safety and International Risk Sharing

By Rohan Kekre and Moritz Lenel

American Economic Review, June 2024

We study a business cycle model of the international monetary system featuring a time varying demand for safe dollar bonds, greater risk-bearing capacity in the United States than the rest of the world, and nominal rigidities. A flight to safety generates...

Task-Based Discrimination

By Erik Hurst, Yona Rubinstein, and Kazuatsu Shimizu

American Economic Review, June 2024

We develop a task-based model of occupational sorting to identify and quantify the effect of discrimination, racial skill gaps, and aggregate task prices on Black-White differences in labor market outcomes over time. At the heart of our framework is the i...

Information Technology and Returns to Scale

By Danial Lashkari, Arthur Bauer, and Jocelyn Boussard

American Economic Review, June 2024

What are the implications of the dramatic fall in IT prices for aggregate technology? When firm-level technologies are continuously differentiable, a factor price shock leads to (i) a substitution between factors and/or (ii) an endogenous response of retu...

Breaking Gender Barriers: Experimental Evidence on Men in Pink-Collar Jobs

By Alexia Delfino

American Economic Review, June 2024

I investigate men's limited entry into female-dominated sectors through a large-scale field experiment. The design exogenously varies recruitment messages by showing photographs of current workers (male or female) and providing information on the share of...

Status Externalities in Education and Low Birth Rates in Korea

By Seongeun Kim, Michèle Tertilt, and Minchul Yum

American Economic Review, June 2024

South Koreans appear to be preoccupied with their offspring's education and also have the lowest total fertility rate in the world. We propose a novel theory with status externalities and endogenous fertility connecting these facts, motivated by novel emp...

Long-Run Effects of Incentivizing Work after Childbirth

By Elira Kuka and Na'ama Shenhav

American Economic Review, June 2024

This paper identifies the impact of increasing post-childbirth work incentives on mothers' long-run careers. We exploit variation in work incentives across mothers based on the timing of a first birth and eligibility for the 1993 expansion of the Earned I...

Financial Access and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Credit Lotteries

By Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr, and Janis Skrastins

American Economic Review, June 2024

We assess the employment and income effects of access to credit dedicated to investment in individual mobility by exploiting time-series variation in access to credit through lotteries for participants in a group-lending mechanism in Brazil. We find that ...

Background Risk and Small-Stakes Risk Aversion

By Xiaosheng Mu, Luciano Pomatto, Philipp Strack, and Omer Tamuz

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

Building on Pomatto, Strack, and Tamuz (2020), we identify a tight condition for when background risk can induce first-order stochastic dominance. Using this condition, we show that under plausible levels of background risk, no theory of choice under risk...

Disentangling Rent Index Differences: Data, Methods, and Scope

By Brian Adams, Lara Loewenstein, Hugh Montag, and Randal Verbrugge

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

Rent measurement determines 32 percent of the CPI. Accurate rent measurement is therefore essential for accurate inflation measurement, but the CPI rent index often differs from alternative rent inflation measures. Using repeat-rent inflation measures cre...

Debt Moratoria: Evidence from Student Loan Forbearance

By Michael Dinerstein, Constantine Yannelis, and Ching-Tse Chen

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

We evaluate the effects of the 2020 student debt moratorium. Using administrative credit panel data, we compare borrowers whose loans were frozen to borrowers whose loans were not frozen based on whether the government owned the loans. We estimate that bo...

Moderate Utility

By Junnan He and Paulo Natenzon

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

Hotelling's and Salop's spatial competition models, as well as nested logit, covariance probit, elimination-by-aspects, and several other well-known discrete choice models, belong to the class of moderate utility models, where binary choices are a functio...

The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations

By Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal, and Daria Taglioni

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

The US-China trade war created net export opportunities rather than simply shifting trade across destinations. Many "bystander" countries grew their exports of taxed products into the rest of the world (excluding the United States and China). Country-spec...

The Fading Treatment Effects of a Multifaceted Asset-Transfer Program in Ethiopia

By Nathan Barker, Dean Karlan, Christopher Udry, and Kelsey Wright

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

We study the long-run effects of a big-push "graduation" program in Ethiopia in which very poor households received a one-time transfer of productive assets (mainly livestock), technical training, and access to savings accounts. After seven years, treatme...

Inflation Expectations and Misallocation of Resources: Evidence from Italy

By Tiziano Ropele, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

Using Italian data that include both inflation forecasts of firms and external information on their balance sheets, we study the causal effect of changes in the dispersion of beliefs about future inflation on the misallocation of resources. We find that a...

Universalism and Political Representation: Evidence from the Field

By Benjamin Enke, Raymond Fisman, Luis Mota Freitas, and Steven Sun

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

This paper provides field evidence on the link between morals and political behavior. We create a district-level variable that reflects to what degree charitable giving decreases as a function of (geographic and social) distance, which we interpret as a r...

Trade and Trees

By Bård Harstad

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

International trade and natural resource exploitation interact in multiple ways. This paper first presents a dynamic game in which the South (S) exploits (e.g., deforests) in order to export (e.g., lumber and agricultural products). Because of negative ex...

Front Matter

American Economic Review: Insights, June 2024

CTREE Conference 2024

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May 29–31, 2024 | Lowes Atlanta Hotel, Atlanta, GA