How Work from Home Changes Housing Demand: Evidence from Online Search

By Elisa Guglielminetti, Michele Loberto, Giordano Zevi, and Roberta Zizza

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We quantify the impact of work from home (WFH) on housing demand by leveraging a unique dataset of online housing sales advertisements in Italy and considering intensity in the adoption of WFH. By exploiting both the time series and the geographical varia...

Measuring Work from Home in the Cross Section

By Augustus Kmetz, John Mondragon, and Johannes F. Wieland

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We compare survey-based measures of work from home (WFH) in the cross section. While the surveys differ in how comprehensively they measure WFH, they are highly correlated in the cross section of US states, suggesting that they will yield similar causal e...

The Mental Health of Caregivers and Young Children in Conflict-Affected Settings

By Juliana Sánchez-Ariza, Jorge Cuartas, and Andrés Moya

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We analyze the effects of conflict-related violence on the mental health of caregivers and young children, as well as the role of caregivers' mental health in explaining the toll of conflict on early childhood mental health. Although an upcoming body of w...

Reparations for Victims: Lessons from Colombia

By Arlen Guarin, Juliana Londoño-Vélez, and Christian Posso

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Reparations recognize and address the harm that victims suffered during war, conflict, or authoritarianism, and some experts argue that the compensation can also help victims to rebuild life projects. Using linked administrative microdata, we study the wo...

Least Protected, Most Affected: Impacts of Migration Regularization Programs on Pandemic Resilience

By Maria José Urbina ⓡ Sandra V. Rozo ⓡ Andrés Moya ⓡ Ana María Ibáñez

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

How can regularization programs improve forced migrants' resilience to shocks? We leverage panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more ...

Refugee Entrepreneurship: The Case of Venezuelans in Colombia

By Dany Bahar, Bo Cowgill, and Jorge Guzman

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

This paper analyzes the entire business registry of Colombia during 2015–2022, a period when Colombia received two million Venezuelan immigrants and refugees. We present two main findings. First, firms owned by foreigners, most of them Venezuelans, tend...

Innovation for Innovators: The Financing of Intangibles

By Ana Babus, Matias Marzani, and Sara Moreira

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

This paper examines the characteristics of firms that adopt new financial products and their association with measures of performance. We build a novel firm-level panel dataset and document a positive association between intangible capital and the adoptio...

The Great Start-up Sellout and the Rise of Oligopoly

By Florian Ederer and Bruno Pellegrino

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We document a secular shift from initial public offerings to acquisitions of venture capital-backed start-ups and show that this trend is accompanied by an increase in the opportunity cost of going public over the last quarter-century. Dominant companies ...

Interest Rates and World Trade: An "Austrian" Perspective

By Pol Antràs

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

I develop a framework to study the interplay between world trade and interest rates. The model incorporates an explicit notion of time and production length, in the "Austrian" tradition of Bohm-Bawerk (1889). Changes in the interest rate affect production...

The Trickling Up of Excess Savings

By Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, and Ludwig Straub

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We provide a simple framework connecting the distribution of excess savings across households to the dynamics of aggregate demand. Deficit-financed fiscal transfers generate excess savings. The poorest households with the highest marginal propensities to ...

Quantifying the Inflationary Impact of Fiscal Stimulus under Supply Constraints

By Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Alvaro Silva, and Muhammed A. Yıldırım

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy on US inflation over the December 2019 to June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-t...

A Solomonic Solution to Blockchain Front-Running

By Joshua S. Gans and Richard Holden

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Blockchain front-running involves multiple agents, other than the legitimate agent, claiming a payment from performing a contract. It arises because of the public nature of blockchain transactions and potential network congestion. This paper notes that di...

Blockchain Private Pools and Price Discovery

By Agostino Capponi, Ruizhe Jia, and Ye Wang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

In this paper, we examine the balance between allocative efficiency and price discovery in blockchain-based finance. Our analysis reveals that the use of private pools, while improving blockspace allocation efficiency, negatively impacts price discovery. ...

Technologies That Replace a "Central Planner"

By Robert M. Townsend and Nicolas X. Zhang

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

Contracting possibilities are endogenous to the technologies on which the negotiation and the trading environments are built. Here we review how different technologies allow different implementations of the "central planner" and gradually abstract this ce...

Financial Bubbles in Infinitely Repeated Auctions with Tokens

By Andrea Canidio

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

An auctioneer holds an infinite sequence of private value auctions. He can accept payments in a blockchain-based token that he creates and initially owns. I show that relative to a standard auction with dollars, the present-discounted value of the expecte...

Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation

By Ricardo Reis

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals), it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single...

Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation of US Firms

By Bernardo Candia ⓡ Michael Weber ⓡ Yuriy Gorodnichenko ⓡ Olivier Coibion

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

The seminal work of Jonung (1981) showed that households' perceptions of inflation are the strongest predictor of households' inflation expectations. This fact has been a key ingredient for testing and developing theoretical models of how economic agents ...

Firm Inflation Uncertainty

By Ivan Yotzov, Lena Anayi, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Özgen Öztürk, and Gregory Thwaites

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty has increased significantly since the start of 2021, even as a similar measure of sales unce...

Unconventional Fiscal Policy at Work

By Rüdiger Bachmann, Benjamin Born, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Georgi Kocharkov, Ralph Luetticke, and Michael Weber

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

In an effort to stabilize the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic, the German government reduced value-added taxes (VAT) by 3 percentage points for a period of six months in the latter half of 2020. This measure resulted in a boost in aggregate consumer ...

Advanced Technology Adoption: Selection or Causal Effects?

By Daron Acemoglu, Gary Anderson, David Beede, Catherine Buffington, Eric Childress, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, Nathan Goldschlag, John Haltiwanger, Zachary Kroff, Pascual Restrepo, and Nikolas Zolas

AEA Papers and Proceedings, May 2023

This paper uses data from the 2019 Annual Business Survey to document that firms adopting advanced technologies are larger in terms of employment than other firms in their same industry and cohort. Using data from the Longitudinal Business Survey, we show...