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Evaluating Strategic Forecasters

By Rahul Deb, Mallesh M. Pai, and Maher Said

American Economic Review, October 2018

Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown qua...

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

By Javier Bianchi, Juan Carlos Hatchondo, and Leonardo Martinez

American Economic Review, September 2018

We study the optimal accumulation of international reserves in a quantitative model of sovereign default with long-term debt and a risk-free asset. Keeping higher levels of reserves provides a hedge against rollover risk, but this is costly because using ...

US Water Pollution Regulation over the Past Half Century: Burning Waters to Crystal Springs?

[Symposium: Fiftieth Anniversary of the Clean Air and Water Acts]

By David A. Keiser and Joseph S. Shapiro

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 2019

In the half century since the founding of the US Environmental Protection Agency, public and private US sources have spent nearly $5 trillion ($2017) to provide clean rivers, lakes, and drinking water (annual spending of 0.8 percent of US GDP in most ye...