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IT and Urban Polarization

By Jan Eeckhout, Christoph Hedtrich, and Roberto Pinheiro

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2026

We show that differential IT investment across cities has been a key driver of job and wage polarization since the 1990s. Using a novel dataset, we establish two stylized facts: IT investment is highest in firms in large and expensive cities, and the decl...

Immigration, Innovation, and Growth

By Stephen J. Terry Thomas Chaney Konrad B. Burchardi Lisa Tarquinio Tarek A. Hassan

American Economic Review, March 2026

We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countri...

Sequential Cursed Equilibrium

By Shani Cohen and Shengwu Li

American Economic Review, March 2026

We propose an extensive-form solution concept, with players who neglect information from hypothetical events but make inferences from observed events. Our concept modifies cursed equilibrium (Eyster and Rabin 2005) and allows that players can be cursed ab...

Equal Pay for Similar Work

By Diego Gentile Passaro, Fuhito Kojima, and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

American Economic Review, March 2026

Equal pay laws increasingly require that workers with different group identities doing "similar" work are paid equal wages within firm. We study such "equal pay for similar work" (EPSW) policies theoretically and test our models' predictions empirically u...

The Price of War

By Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Gernot J. Müller, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick

American Economic Review, March 2026

We assemble a new dataset spanning 150 years and 60 countries to study the economic toll of war. A war of average intensity is associated with an output drop of close to 10 percent in the war-site economy, while consumer prices rise by approximately 20 pe...