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Rational Inattention in the Infield

By Vivek Bhattacharya and Greg Howard

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, November 2022

This paper provides evidence of rational inattention by experienced professionals in strategic interactions. We add rational inattention to a game of matching pennies with state-dependent payoffs. Unlike the full-information, mixed-strategy Nash equilibri...

Learning from Manipulable Signals

By Mehmet Ekmekci, Leandro Gorno, Lucas Maestri, Jian Sun, and Dong Wei

American Economic Review, December 2022

We study a dynamic stopping game between a principal and an agent. The principal gradually learns about the agent's private type from a noisy performance measure that can be manipulated by the agent via a costly and hidden action. We fully characterize th...

A Taste of Their Own Medicine: Guideline Adherence and Access to Expertise

By Amy Finkelstein, Petra Persson, Maria Polyakova, and Jesse M. Shapiro

American Economic Review: Insights, December 2022

We use administrative data from Sweden to study adherence to 63 medication-related guidelines. We compare the adherence of patients without personal access to medical expertise to that of patients with access, namely doctors and their close relatives. We ...

Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

By Matilde Bombardini, Bingjing Li, and Francesco Trebbi

American Economic Review, January 2023

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two ...

Anchored Inflation Expectations

By Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation e...

The Voice of Monetary Policy

By Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham, and Oleksandr Talavera

American Economic Review, February 2023

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Res...

Product Quality and Consumer Search

By José L. Moraga-González and Yajie Sun

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, February 2023

An increase in quality shifts up the distribution of match utilities offered by firms and makes consumers pickier. The number of products that consumers inspect does not necessarily increase in quality. Higher search costs may lead to less quality investm...