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  3. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
  4. April 2011
  5. Did Improvements in Household Technology Cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion, and the Amish

Did Improvements in Household Technology Cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion, and the Amish

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Abstract

We examine the hypothesis that advances in household technology caused the US baby boom, and we find no support for this claim. Advances in household technology occurred before the baby boom, while fertility declined. From 1940 to 1960, levels/changes in county-level appliance ownership and electrification negatively predict levels/changes in fertility rates. Exposure to electricity in early adulthood and children-ever-born are negatively correlated for the relevant cohorts. The Amish, who used modern technologies much less than other US households, experienced a coincident baby boom. This evidence can be reconciled with economic theory if other home-produced goods are substitutes with children. (JEL D12, J13, N32, N92, O33)

Citation

Bailey, Martha J., and William J. Collins. 2011. "Did Improvements in Household Technology Cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion, and the Amish." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3 (2): 189-217. DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.2.189

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • D12 Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • N32 Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
  • N92 Regional and Urban History: U.S.; Canada: 1913-
  • O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
  • Posted by JEREMY GREENWOOD
  • Posted on 9/21/2015 10:49:52 AM
For a rebuttal see Greenwood, Seshadri and Vandenbroucke (2015) "Measurement without Theory, Once Again," Journal of Demographic Economics, v. 81, no. 3: 317-329.

ABSTRACT: Bailey and Collins (2011) argue that Greenwood, Seshadri, and Vandenbroucke's (2005) hypothesis that the baby boom was partly due to a burst of productivity in the household sector is not supported by evidence. This conclusion is based on regression results showing that appliance ownership is negatively correlated with fertility. They also argue that the Amish, who limit the use of modern technology, had a baby boom. First, it is demonstrated that a negative correlation between appliance ownership and fertility can arise naturally in Greenwood, Seshadri, and Vandenbroucke's model. Second, evidence is presented casting doubt on the presumed technology phobia of the Amish. In particular, the use of modern household technologies varies considerably across different Amish sects.
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