This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but reveal substantially greater dispersion across forecasters' long-horizon projections of US inflation. Analysis of
daily data on inflation swaps and nominal-indexed bond spreads, which gauge compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk, also suggests that long-run inflation expectations are more firmly anchored in the euro area than in the United States. (JEL D84, E31, E37, E52, E58)
"Are Long-Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area Than in the United States?"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Central Banks and Their Policies