National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops
AbstractWe estimate the impact of genetically modified (GM) crops on countrywide yields, harvested area, and trade using a triple-differences rollout design that exploits variation in the availability of GM seeds across crops, countries, and time. We find positive impacts on yields, especially in poor countries. Our estimates imply that without GM crops, the world would have needed 3.4 percent additional cropland to keep global agricultural output at its 2019 level. We also find that bans on GM cultivation have limited the global gain from GM adoption to one-third of its potential. Poor countries would benefit most from lifting such bans.
CitationHansen, Casper Worm, and Asger Mose Wingender. 2023. "National and Global Impacts of Genetically Modified Crops." American Economic Review: Insights, 5 (2): 224-40. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20220144
- O13 Economic Development: Agriculture; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q15 Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
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- Q17 Agriculture in International Trade
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