Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution
AbstractManipulating subjects' expectations about the resolution of uncertainty, I show that subjects update beliefs about ego-relevant information optimistically when they expect no resolution of uncertainty but neutrally when they expect immediate uncertainty resolution. This finding highlights an important channel of the supply side of motivated beliefs and informs the discussion about the puzzling evidence on belief updating about ego-relevant information. Moreover, I document that subjects ex post rationalize information by manipulating their stated beliefs about the ego-relevance of the underlying event depending on the valence of information. This result suggests an additional channel that subjects use to protect their ego utility.
CitationDrobner, Christoph. 2022. "Motivated Beliefs and Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution." American Economic Review: Insights, 4 (1): 89-105. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200829
- D81 Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D84 Expectations; Speculations