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  4. December 2021
  5. Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model

Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model

  • Daron Acemoglu
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Iván Werning
  • Michael D. Whinston
American Economic Review: Insights
vol. 3, no. 4, December 2021
(pp. 487-502)
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Abstract

We study targeted lockdowns in a multigroup SIR model where infection, hospitalization, and fatality rates vary between groups—in particular between the "young," the "middle-aged," and the "old." Our model enables a tractable quantitative analysis of optimal policy. For baseline parameter values for the COVID-19 pandemic applied to the US, we find that optimal policies differentially targeting risk/age groups significantly outperform optimal uniform policies and most of the gains can be realized by having stricter protective measures such as lockdowns on the more vulnerable, old group. Intuitively, a strict and long lockdown for the old both reduces infections and enables less strict lockdowns for the lower-risk groups.

Citation

Acemoglu, Daron, Victor Chernozhukov, Iván Werning, and Michael D. Whinston. 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model." American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (4): 487-502. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200590

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

  • H51 National Government Expenditures and Health
  • I12 Health Behavior
  • I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
  • J13 Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
  • J14 Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-labor Market Discrimination