Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network
AbstractWe study optimal dynamic lockdowns against COVID-19 within a commuting network. Our framework integrates canonical spatial epidemiology and trade models and is applied to cities with varying initial viral spread: Seoul, Daegu, and the New York City metropolitan area (NYM). Spatial lockdowns achieve substantially smaller income losses than uniform lockdowns. In the NYM and Daegu—with large initial shocks—the optimal lockdown restricts inflows to central districts before gradual relaxation, while in Seoul it imposes low temporal but large spatial variation. Actual commuting reductions were too weak in central locations in Daegu and the NYM and too strong across Seoul.
CitationFajgelbaum, Pablo D., Amit Khandelwal, Wookun Kim, Cristiano Mantovani, and Edouard Schaal. 2021. "Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network." American Economic Review: Insights, 3 (4): 503-22. DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200401
- H51 National Government Expenditures and Health
- I12 Health Behavior
- I18 Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- R23 Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
- R41 Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise