Anchored Inflation Expectations

By Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the postwar period. In our theory, long-run inflation e...

A Risky Venture: Income Dynamics among Pass-Through Business Owners

By Jason DeBacker, Vasia Panousi, and Shanthi Ramnath

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We employ a large panel of US income tax returns for the period 1987–2018 to extensively characterize and quantify business income risk. Our findings show business income to be much riskier than labor income. Business income is less persistent and is ch...

The Government Spending Multiplier in a Multisector Economy

By Hafedh Bouakez, Omar Rachedi, and Emiliano Santoro

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We study the effects of aggregate government spending shocks in a production network economy where sectors differ in their price rigidity, factor intensities, use of intermediate inputs, and contribution to final demand. The model implies an aggregate val...

House Prices and Consumption: A New Instrumental Variables Approach

By James Graham and Christos A. Makridis

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We introduce a novel Bartik-like instrument for house prices consisting of the local composition of housing characteristics interacted with aggregate changes in the marginal prices of these characteristics. Using household-level panel data, we estimate el...

Skilled Labor Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences

By Lutz Hendricks and Todd Schoellman

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

This paper revisits the question of how allowing for imperfect substitution among workers with different skill levels affects the results of development accounting. We consider a range of models that nest the approaches in the literature and calibrate the...

Childcare Subsidies and Child Skill Accumulation in One- and Two-Parent Families

By Emily G. Moschini

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

I examine the role of family structure and childcare subsidies in child skill accumulation. I establish empirically that skill accumulation is more responsive to childcare price for one-parent families than for two-parent families. I analyze the effects o...

Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries

By Masao Fukui, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates ...

Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications

By Edmund Crawley and Andreas Kuchler

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We document heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) across household characteristics relevant to understanding heterogeneous agent models and monetary policy transmission. We find a strong negative relationship between household liquid w...

Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth

By Jose Asturias, Sewon Hur, Timothy J. Kehoe, and Kim J. Ruhl

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

Applying the Foster, Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2001) decomposition to plant-level manufacturing data from Chile and Korea, we find that the entry and exit of plants account for a larger fraction of aggregate productivity growth during periods of fast GDP g...

Firm Wages in a Frictional Labor Market

By Leena Rudanko

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsi...

Fiscal Policy, Relative Prices, and Net Exports in a Currency Union

By Luisa Lambertini and Christian Proebsting

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

The hoped-for silver lining of euro-area austerity programs was to raise external competitiveness and improve current accounts. Using product- and industry-level data for 12 countries over the period 1999–2018, we show that reductions in government spen...

Uncovering the Effects of the Zero Lower Bound with an Endogenous Financial Wedge

By Dan Cao, Wenlan Luo, and Guangyu Nie

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

We study the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on the severity of financial crises using an incomplete markets New Keynesian model with two occasionally binding constraints: a ZLB on the nominal interest rate and a borrowing constraint tied to an asse...

Assessing the Gains from E-Commerce

By Paul Dolfen, Liran Einav, Peter J. Klenow, Benjamin Klopack, Jonathan D. Levin, Larry Levin, and Wayne Best

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, January 2023

E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spending in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reac...

Networks in Economics and Finance

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon A Sec 3 & 6 Chair: Lin Peng (CUNY-Baruch College) Authors: Matthew O. Jackson (Stanford University), Suraj Malladi (Cornell University) (presenting), David McAdams (Duke University), Syngjoo Choi (Seoul National University), Sanjeev Goyal (University of Cambridge) (presenting), Frederic Moisan (Emlyon Business School), Francesco D'Acunto (Georgetown University) (presenting), Alberto G. Rossi (Georgetown University), Michael Weber (University of Chicago), David Hirshleifer (University of Southern California), Lin Peng (CUNY-Baruch College and University of Cambridge) (presenting), Qiguang Wang (Hong Kong Baptist University) Discussants: Sudipta Sarangi (Virginia Tech), Ville Rantala (University of Miami), Harrison Hong (Columbia University), Liyan Yang (University of Toronto)

AEA/ AFA Joint Luncheon-Fee Event

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Ballroom B & C Chair: Susan Athey (Stanford University) Speaker: Gita Gopinath (Harvard University)

Big Data to Infer Beliefs, Information and Unobserved Costs

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon D Sec 19 & 22 Chair: Laura Veldkamp (Columbia University) Authors: Wenting Song (Bank of Canada) (presenting), Nana Addai (University of North Carolina-Greensboro) (presenting), Amanda Rae Heitz (FDIC and Tulane University) (presenting), Christopher Martin (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation), Alexander Brenden Ufier (FDIC), Alistai Macaulay (University of Oxford) Discussants: Kristoffer P. Nimark (Cornell University), Galina Hale (University of California-Santa Cruz), Yiming Ma (Columbia University)

Bosses, Mentors, and Careers

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon D Sec 19 & 22 Chair: Kathryn Shaw (Stanford University) Authors: Jason Sandvik (Tulane University), Richard Saouma (Michigan State University), Nathan Seegert (University of Utah), Christopher Stanton (Harvard University) (presenting), Ingrid Haegele (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich) (presenting), Alan Benson (University of Minnesota) (presenting), Danielle Li (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and NBER), Kelly Shue (Yale University), Benjamin Anderson (Colgate University), Wayne A. Grove (Le Moyne College) (presenting) Discussants: Wayne A. Grove (Le Moyne College), Alan Benson (University of Minnesota), Christopher Stanton (Harvard University), Ingrid Haegele (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)

China and U.S. In the International Monetary System

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon D Sec 19 & 22 Chair: Carmen M. Reinhart (Harvard University and World Bank) Authors: Amanda Dos Santos (Columbia University), Christopher Clayton (Yale University) (presenting), Matteo Maggiori (Stanford University), Jesse Schreger (Columbia University), Jason Choi (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Rishabh Kirpalani (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Diego Perez (New York University) (presenting), Zhiguo He (University of Chicago) (presenting), Yuehan Wang (Central University of Finance and Economics), Xiaoquan Zhu (University of International Business and Economics), Sebastian Horn (Kiel Institute), Carmen M. Reinhart (Harvard University and World Bank) (presenting), Christoph Trebesch (Kiel Institute), Brad Parks (College of William & Mary) Discussants: Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics), Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard University), Antonio Coppola (Stanford University), Wenxin Du (University of Chicago)

Impacts of Curriculum, College, and Vocational Training on Educational Outcomes

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Hilton Riverside, Grand Salon D Sec 19 & 22 Chair: Francisca Antman (University of Colorado Boulder) Authors: Jennifer Seager (George Washington University) (presenting), Sarah Baird (George Washington University), T.M. Asaduzzaman (World Bank), Shwetlena Sabarwal (World Bank), Amita Vyas (George Washington University), Xiaoxiao Li (Villanova University) (presenting), Sebastian Linde (Medical College of Wisconsin), Hajime Shimao (McGill University), Alina Malkova (Florida Institute of Technology) (presenting), Fulya Ersoy (Loyola Marymount University) (presenting), Graham Beattie (Loyola Marymount University) Discussants: Bryce Millet Steinberg (Brown University), Celeste K. Carruthers (University of Tennessee), Tisha Emerson (Baylor University), Laura Ahlstrom (Oklahoma State University)