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From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of Economics]

By Richard H. Thaler

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

In responding to a request for predictions about the future of economics, I predict that Homo Economicus will evolve into Homo Sapiens, or, more simply put, economics will become more related to human behavior. My specific predictions are that Homo Econom...

The Future of Microeconomic Theory

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of Economics]

By Beth Allen

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

The question of what constitutes good economic theory is analyzed. Current good and bad aspects of its methodologies are discussed. Interdisciplinary work that goes beyond the social sciences is advocated. The future predictions are presented concerning r...

Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of Economics]

By Robert M. Solow

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

My main goal in this essay is to say something about leftover open questions in macroeconomics, as well as new phenomena that need to be accommodated in early 21st century macroeconomics, and the sorts of ideas that might make progress possible. The essay...

Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of Economics]

By Robert E. Lucas

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

This note describes a numerical simulation of a model of economic growth, a simplified version of Robert Tamura's (1996) model of world income dynamics, based on technology diffusion. The model makes predictions for trends in average world income growth a...

Can America Stay on Top?

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of the Economy]

By Paul Krugman

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

The United States has long enjoyed a unique position of economic supremacy. By the early 1990s, however, almost everyone believed that the age of U.S. supremacy was nearing its end. Circa 1992 few people would have dared to suggest that a second "American...

Anti-Poverty Policy for Families in the Next Century: From Welfare to Work--and Worries

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of the Economy]

By David T. Ellwood

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

This paper reveals that recent changes in social policy have included both sharp cutbacks in welfare for non-working families and dramatic increases in supports for low income working families. It explores the reasons for these changes, and documents how ...

Environmental Problems and Policy: 2000-2050

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of the Economy]

By Paul R. Portney

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

The next 50 years will see more use of market-based tools for environmental protection. Regulatory authorities everywhere will require polluters to report emissions. Authority will leak away from national governments; some will be devolved to lower levels...

Worker Protection Policies in the New Century

[Symposium: Forecasts for the Future of the Economy]

By Bernard E. Anderson

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000

Federal workplace regulations describe a set of baseline requirements which must apply in every employment relationship. The purpose of such policies is to help improve the standard of living and assure a satisfactory quality of worklife for the workforce...

Walking the Tightrope on Medicare Reform

[Symposium: The Future of Medicare]

By David M. Cutler

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2000

A central controversy in the debate about Medicare is whether the program spends too much money or whether instead it should be expanded to cover more. I consider the value of increased Medicare spending. I argue that on average Medicare spending is worth...

Medicare Reform: The Larger Picture

[Symposium: The Future of Medicare]

By Victor R. Fuchs

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2000

The "Medicare problem" is examined as part of the larger problem of providing for the overall financial needs of the elderly. Several myths about Medicare are discussed, and sources and uses of the elderly's "full income" are estimated. The paper explores...

Making the Transition to Prepaid Medicare

[Symposium: The Future of Medicare]

By Thomas R. Saving

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2000

The Medicare system is facing a financial crisis brought on by the combination of rapidly rising consumption of health care services by beneficiaries and financing based on generation transfers. This paper simulates a transition to prepaid Medicare where ...