Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View

By Robert J. Gordon

American Economic Review, May 2015

Secular stagnation on the supply side takes the form of a slow 1.6 percent annual growth rate of US potential real GDP, roughly half the 3.1 percent annual growth rate of actual real GDP realized from 1972 to 2004. This slowdown stems from a sharp decline...

The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Turkey

By Semih Tumen

American Economic Review, May 2016

The Syrian Conflict generated forced immigration from northern Syria to southeastern Turkey. Arrival of refugees resembles a natural experiment, which offers good opportunities to study the economic impact of immigration. I study three main outcomes: labo...

Measuring and Understanding Behavior, Welfare, and Poverty

By Angus Deaton

American Economic Review, June 2016

What Does Japanese Trade Structure Tell Us about Japanese Trade Policy?

[Symposium: Is Japan's Trade Regime Different?]

By Gary R. Saxonhouse

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1993

Some argue foreign access to Japanese markets remains tightly controlled and that if Japan is to be a member in good standing of the international economic system, Japan must do more than just adhere to the formal rules of the GATT; Japan must show by the...

Relational Knowledge Transfers

By Luis Garicano and Luis Rayo

American Economic Review, September 2017

We study how relational contracts mitigate Becker's classic problem of providing general human capital when training contracts are incomplete. The firm's profit-maximizing agreement is a multiperiod apprenticeship in which the novice is trained gradually ...

Do Explicit Warnings Eliminate the Hypothetical Bias in Elicitation Procedures? Evidence from Field Auctions for Sportscards

By John A. List

American Economic Review, December 2001

How Widespread Was Late Trading in Mutual Funds?

By Eric Zitzewitz

American Economic Review, May 2006

Excellence in Refereeing Award

American Economic Review, March 2010

Government Policy with Time Inconsistent Voters

By Alberto Bisin, Alessandro Lizzeri, and Leeat Yariv

American Economic Review, June 2015

Behavioral economics presents a "paternalistic" rationale for benevolent government intervention. This paper presents a model of public debt where voters have self-control problems and attempt to commit using illiquid assets. In equilibrium, government ac...

Why Don’t People Insure Late-Life Consumption? A Framing Explanation of the Under-Annuitization Puzzle

By Jeffrey R. Brown, Jeffrey R. Kling, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Marian V. Wrobel

American Economic Review, May 2008

The Emerging Landscape for Retail E-Commerce

[Symposium: E-Commerce]

By Yannis Bakos

Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2001

Complexity and Economic Policy: A Paradigm Shift or a Change in Perspective? A Review Essay on David Colander and Roland Kupers's Complexity and the Art of Public Policy

By Alan Kirman

Journal of Economic Literature, June 2016

In their recent book, Colander and Kupers (2014) argue that viewing the economy as a complex adaptive system should change the way in which we make economic policy. This would necessitate a paradigm shift. Economics has, over time, tried to produce a cohe...

Do Cash Transfers Improve Birth Outcomes? Evidence from Matched Vital Statistics, Program, and Social Security Data

By Verónica Amarante, Marco Manacorda, Edward Miguel, and Andrea Vigorito

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2016

There is limited empirical evidence on whether cash transfers to poor pregnant women improve children's birth outcomes and potentially help weaken the cycle of intergenerational poverty. Using a unique array of program and social security administrativ...

HIV/AIDS and Development: A Reappraisal of the Productivity and Factor Accumulation Effects

By Théophile T. Azomahou, Raouf Boucekkine, and Bity Diene

American Economic Review, May 2016

We build an economico-epidemiological Solow-Swan model. Mortality and morbidity effects on effective labor are taken into account. A Ben-Porath-like mechanism affects the dynamics of the saving rate and reduces labor productivity. Based on optimal project...

Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News

By Pietro Ortoleva

American Economic Review, October 2012

Bayes' rule has two well-known limitations: 1) it does not model the reaction to zero-probability events; 2) a sizable empirical evidence documents systematic violations of it. We characterize axiomatically an alternative updating rule, the Hypothesis Te...

Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas

By Charles I. Jones

American Economic Review, March 2002

Rising educational attainment and research intensity in recent decades suggest that the U.S. economy is far from its steady state. This paper develops a model reconciling these facts with the stability of U.S. growth rates. In the model, long-run growth a...

Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008

By Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor

American Economic Review, April 2012

The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countrie...

Bidding for Incomplete Contracts: An Empirical Analysis of Adaptation Costs

By Patrick Bajari, Stephanie Houghton, and Steven Tadelis

American Economic Review, April 2014

Procurement contracts are often renegotiated because of changes that are required after their execution. Using highway paving contracts we show that renegotiation imposes significant adaptation costs. Reduced form regressions suggest that bidders respo...

Children and Household Income Packages: A Cross-National Analysis

By Erin Todd and Dennis Sullivan

American Economic Review, May 2002

Core Determining Class and Inequality Selection

By Ye Luo and Hai Wang

American Economic Review, May 2017

The relations between unobserved events and observed outcomes can be characterized by a bipartite graph. We propose an algorithm that explores the structure of the graph to construct the "exact Core Determining Class," i.e., the set of irredudant inequali...