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The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet

By Diego S. Cardoso, Stephen W. Salant, and Julien Daubanes

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

To reduce Russia’s funding for its Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed, after a delay, a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports utilizing Western services. To evade that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” using no such ser...

Exploiting or Augmenting Labor?

By Michael Rubens, Yingjie Wu, and Mingzhi (Jimmy) Xu

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

We show that existing "production approaches" to markdown estimation do not separately identify factor price markdowns from factor-augmenting productivity levels. We propose a method to overcome this challenge and apply it to study the effects of ownershi...

Nonbinary and Transgender Identities and Earnings: Evidence from a National Census

By Christopher S. Carpenter, Donn Feir, Krishna Pendakur, and Casey Warman

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

We provide the first evidence from a large population census on earnings disparities experienced by nonbinary people—individuals who do not exclusively identify as men or women—and transgender people—individuals whose gender differs from their sex a...

Substitution Bias and Fixed-Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models

By Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Benjamin K. Johannsen

American Economic Review: Insights, March 2026

This paper compares measured inflation in true and fixed-weight price indices. We construct model-based inflation measures in time-dependent pricing models that are analogous to measures of inflation in the data—for example, the consumer price index. In...