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What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian

American Economic Review, May 2013

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-...