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Integrating Out Natural Disaster Shocks

By Franziska Bremus and Malte Rieth

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Natural disasters are largely unpredictable and unrelated to the state of financial integration. We doc...

Tax Compliance in the Rental Housing Market: Evidence from a Field Experiment

By Essi Eerola, Tuomas Kosonen, Kaisa Kotakorpi, and Teemu Lyytikäinen

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study rental income tax compliance using novel third-party information and a large-scale randomized field experiment. The third-party information combines register data on the ownership and occupancy of apartments. The RCT used this new third-party inf...

Responses to Extreme Temperatures: Migrant Networks and International Migration from El Salvador

By Ana Maria Ibáñez, Juliana Quigua, Maria Jimena Romero, and Andrea Velásquez

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We show that exposure to extreme temperatures significantly increases international migration from El Salvador, where nearly a quarter of the population lives in the United States. Extreme temperatures reduce corn yields, leading producers to decrease the...

The Big Short (Interest): Closing the Loopholes in the Dividend-Withholding Tax

By Elisa Casi, Evelina Gavrilova, David Murphy, and Floris T. Zoutman

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We study the effect of stricter enforcement of the dividend-withholding tax (DWT). We focus on a 2016 Danish enforcement reform and compare Denmark to its Nordic neighbors. Throughout the Nordic stock markets, shares on loan spike sharply around dividend ...

State Recreational Cannabis Laws and Racial Disparities in the Criminal Legal System

By Angélica Meinhofer, Adrian Rubli, and Jamein P. Cunningham

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We estimate the direct and spillover effects of cannabis legalization on longstanding racial disparities in criminal justice outcomes. We find that legalization reduces cannabis possession and sales arrests for White and Black populations, narrowing but n...

Prediction Errors, Incarceration, and Violent Crime: Evidence from Linking Prosecutor Surveys to Court Records

By Emma Harrington, William III Murdock, and Hannah Shaffer

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

Incarceration is often justified by a defendant's risk of future crime. To what extent do biased beliefs about predictors of crime distort incarceration decisions? We survey prosecutors about how violent rearrest rates vary by defendant age and criminal h...

Medical Technology and Life Expectancy: Evidence from the Antitoxin Treatment of Diphtheria

By Philipp Ager, Casper W. Hansen, and Peter Z. Lin

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

We examine the impact of the free supply of diphtheria antitoxin, the first effective medical treatment for an infectious disease, on the historical health transition in Massachusetts. Using newly collected municipality-level data on the distribution of a...

Punishing Financial Crimes: The Impact of Prison Sentences on Defendants and Their Colleagues

By Kristiina Huttunen, Martti Kaila, David C. Macdonald, and Emily Nix

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, May 2026

Financial crimes are costly to society but less severely punished than other nonviolent crimes. We investigate whether prison sentences reduce financial crimes. Using random assignment of judges in Finland to identify causal impacts, we find a prison sent...